MLB Best Bets Today September 3
A pretty perfect split today on the MLB card, as we have three games early, just enough to provide distractions from the work day, and then six games late, but they don’t start until 7:15 p.m. ET or later. We also have some pretty decent pitchers across the slate, plus some exciting youngsters, so it should be a good day on the diamond in advance of a 16-game card on Friday thanks to a Tigers vs. Guardians doubleheader.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 3:
Marlins vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Jakob Marsee (MIA) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-109)
Michael Wacha is usually hell on lefties, but I think Marsee matches up about as well with him as any lefty can. It hasn’t been a great year for Marsee, but he’s had a nice second half, slashing .244/.362/.420. The reason why I’m going with the HRR prop instead of Total Bases is because of that high OBP, driven by a 13.4% BB% in the second half. He’s actually walked a ton for the season as a whole and walks do not count as TB.
Marsee is batting .291 with a .509 SLG against offspeed pitches this season. Wacha’s changeup is his bread-and-butter pitch and he loves to use it to neutralize lefties. Marsee actually hits changeups pretty well and this isn’t a fluke thing. He had a .333 BA with a .487 SLG on them last season. In fact, if you look at the leaders in Batting Value/100 against changeups, Marsee is third behind Willson Contreras and Alec Bohm.
Marsee isn’t having the best season and doesn’t have the highest contact quality, but he ranks in the 91st percentile in Chase% and 80th percentile in Whiff%. He puts the bat on the ball and he has speed. Against Wacha and his changeup, I think he has the chance at some success tonight.
Rays vs. Rangers Prediction
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 (+100)
Shane McClanahan and Cal Quantrill are the listed starters here, as the Rays and Rangers fire up a four-game weekend set. McClanahan is making his fourth start since coming off the IL and it’s been a bit rough, as he’s allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 14 innings. He allowed four runs to the Padres last time out and three runs to the Orioles in his first start back, with five shutout innings in between.
Mac has allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% and four Barrels for a 9.5% Barrel% in that span. He did give up a lot of that hard contact in his first start back, but it’s pretty clear that he’s just not fully sharp right now. The Rangers have slashed .277/.351/.465 against LHP over the last 30 days, sitting third in wOBA at .354 and third in wRC+ at 130 in that span. They’ll get the opportunity to keep up that performance against a southpaw here tonight.
Quantrill has been really useful this season for the Rangers. He’s not a big strikeout guy at all, but he limits hard contact and that allows him to outperform some of his advanced numbers. He has a 3.01 ERA with a 4.02 xERA and a 4.08 FIP over 89.2 innings of work. He’s been a swingman with 11 starts, but 89.2 total innings, as he’s given the Rangers some good length lately, going 5.1 innings or more in five of his last six starts.
Not surprisingly, Quantrill has loved the pitcher-friendly confines of Globe Life Field, as he’s allowed a .220/.266/.339 slash with a .266 wOBA there, pitching to a 2.61 ERA over 48.1 innings of work. I believe that will work to his advantage tonight and he allowed just a .193/.218/.316 slash overall in 31 innings in August, so he’s in good form.
For the first game of a road trip, I could see the Rays a bit sluggish and sleepy after getting into DAL around 1 a.m. with one off day since August 13.
