2026/27 Season Week 3
Week 2 went 2-1 putting me at 4-2 for the season. The one bet that didn’t cash last weekend was Inter Milan -1.5 Goals on the Spread. They dominated Cagliari recording 3.67 xG, 6 big chances and 31 shots per SofaScore but could only manage a 1-0 win. One of the toughest watches I’ve had in a long time. That’s how the cards fall sometimes.
Three picks this week, and the best news of all: Champions League football returns midweek.
FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | Matchday 2
Saturday, September 05 | 12:30 PM ET | VELTINS-Arena | Gelsenkirchen, Germany | Watch: USA Network
If you’ve only started watching soccer recently, there’s a good chance you haven’t discovered FC Schalke 04 yet. Historically they are one of German soccer’s powerhouses and rank third in the country by membership size, making them one of the best supported clubs in Europe.
In 2020/21 they suffered one of the worst crises European club soccer has ever seen: five different head coaches, 41 players used, and just three wins all campaign. Years of overspending on wages and reckless transfer business had already buried them in debt, and when COVID gutted matchday revenue, the rug was pulled from under them. Then when war broke out in Ukraine, Schalke lost shirt sponsor Gazprom, blowing another hole in a balance sheet already more than €190 million in the red.
They bounced straight back up by winning the 2. Bundesliga title in 2021/22, but it was a false dawn. Schalke went right back down after one season and could only manage finishes of 10th and 14th, with supporters genuinely fearing that a drop into the third division was about to become a reality.
In 2025/26 everything changed with the appointment of Miron Muslić, who overhauled the squad and built a disciplined defensive structure that conceded a league-low 28 goals across the season. That foundation carried them to five straight wins and just one defeat in their final 13 matches, clinching automatic promotion with two games to spare.
It’s a brilliant story of a fallen giant returning to the league they never should have left. Unfortunately, they arrive still in a financial hole and with a squad lacking the quality and depth to stay at the top table. Their most recognizable player is 40-year-old Edin Dzeko, and per Transfermarkt they only spent 2.65 million euros on the squad this summer.
DraftKings have Schalke as second favorites for relegation at +160, and their opening game gave no assurances. They started brightly, generating 1.2 xG and two big chances in the opening 15 minutes without finding the net — then managed 0.9 xG across the remaining 75.
They went 1-0 down, and Ron Schallenberg’s poorly timed challenge on 62 minutes gave the referee no choice but to send him off. That allowed Augsburg to dominate the final 30 minutes in front of their fans, completing a 3-0 win. The home side racked up 3.72 xG — 1.94 of it before the sending off — and nine big chances per SofaScore, with Schalke’s one silver lining being Loris Karius, who pulled off 10 saves to keep the scoreline respectable. If they can’t put their chances away or rely on the defense that got them here, it’s going to be a long season.
If a side like Augsburg, who are notoriously shy in front of goal — 45 league goals last season, 35 the year before — can generate those numbers, then it’s safe to say Bayern — who scored 122 goals last season and have strengthened further this summer — will match them at a minimum.
Despite the gulf in class, this is a big match for both sides. Schalke against Bayern used to be one of the Bundesliga’s marquee fixtures, and if you want proof it still means something, all 62,271 seats went inside an hour of going on sale. After three years away, Bayern’s travelling support will make sure the players know what this one means.
Looking at the markets, goals are on the cards. The match total is set at 3.5, with the Over at -165 and the Under at +130, and Bayern’s Team Total is also set at 3.5 +118. There’s one bet from the goal markets that stands out: Bayern First Half Team Goals Over 1.5 at +116.
Due to the history between the clubs and the occasion, I think Bayern treat this as a really big fixture, start strong and try to put Schalke away early. Bodø/Glimt arrive on Thursday in Bayern’s Champions League opener — the trophy they’re chasing most this season — and they’ll want to lay down a marker to the rest of Europe. Get this done inside 45 and the stars come off with the legs saved.
Bayern first half team goals Over 1.5 at +116 is the strongest play available. Schalke have waited three years to throw this party. Bayern will have it shut down inside 45 minutes.
Pick: Bayern Munich First Half Team Goals Over 1.5 +116
Valencia vs Barcelona | La Liga | Matchday 4
Sunday, September 06 | 10:15 AM ET | Mestalla | Valencia, Spain | Watch: ESPN+
Barcelona to win both halves cashed for us last week and has hit in all three of their La Liga games this season. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Valencia’s recent history is a similar tale to Schalke’s. A club that mismanaged itself into trouble, did the hard work of stabilizing, and now has to live within its means as it prioritizes building a new stadium. Nine million euros of summer spending and loan signings, and a start to the season that reflects it — one point from three games and a single goal scored.
Barça have scored 12 goals in La Liga this season, and the spread tells you as much as the total. Raphinha leads the way with five, Fermín López has three, Lamine Yamal two, Karim Adeyemi one, with a Florian Lejeune own goal completing the dozen. The assists are spread wider still — Anthony Gordon with three, and one apiece for Xavi Espert, Raphinha, Marc Bernal, Pedri and Adeyemi. This isn’t one player carrying a team. It’s Hansi Flick’s rampant attacking system producing goals from everywhere.
And this is before Rodri has been fully integrated. The World Cup and Golden Ball winner has transformed this side into one of the favorites to win the Champions League, and the players know it.
In Flick’s 4-2-3-1, two attacking spots are effectively spoken for. Raphinha has started up top and wears the armband — barring injury or a dramatic dip in form, he plays. Yamal is a generational talent and the other guarantee. That leaves Dani Olmo, Gordon, Adeyemi and López fighting over two shirts, with new signing Gabriel Jesus also in the conversation even if he’s likely to remain a backup.
That competition for places is why I love this bet, and you can see it in the numbers. In first halves this season Barcelona have generated 5.47 xG and 10 big chances, scoring five. In second halves it’s 6.18 xG, 10 big chances and seven goals per SofaScore. Gordon has two assists from the bench and Adeyemi one — both have blistering pace, and Flick is using it to punish tired defenses in the closing stages.
This bet was +125 when I started writing it up for last week’s column and +105 by the time I posted. It’s available at +145 this weekend, and I don’t see a Valencia side that’s managed one goal in three games being the one to end this run.
Pick: Barcelona To Win Both Halves +145
Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği | Turkish Süper Lig | Matchday 4
Sunday, September 06 | 1 PM ET | Papara Park | Trabzon, Türkiye | Watch: beIN Sports
Gençlerbirliği sit joint-top of the Turkish Süper Lig with seven points from three games, including a 2-1 win over Fenerbahçe on opening day. A stark turnaround for a club that finished two points above the relegation zone last season. So, what changed?
Digging into the numbers it looks like lady luck has taken a spot in their squad. Against Fenerbahçe they allowed 27 shots, six big chances and 2.9 xG — and still managed to emerge as winners. Across their three Süper Lig games they’ve only conceded twice despite allowing 5.68 xG and 11 big chances. Goalkeeper İrfan Can Eğribayat has been their standout performer, averaging 6.3 saves per game and picking up two 10 ratings on SofaScore.
Their xG allowed has fallen each week — 2.9, then 1.92, then 0.86 — but so has the quality of their opponents. The one time Gençlerbirliği faced a quality forward line they were overrun for 90 minutes and somehow got away with three points. Sunday brings another one.
Enter Mohamed Salah. Trabzonspor signed him this summer on a two-year deal worth €17 million a season, and he’s repaid them with three goals in his first three appearances.
That’s a roughly 50% pay rise on what Liverpool were giving him, and it came after nine years at Anfield and a breakdown in his relationship with the club’s hierarchy. What made Trabzonspor’s offer work was that it kept him in European football — he had no interest in Saudi Arabia or MLS — with a fanbase that made him the main event from day one and a shot at continental competition.
That last part hasn’t quite gone to plan. Defeat to Ferencváros dropped Trabzonspor into the less prestigious Europa Conference League, though it’s a trophy they’ve got a far better chance of winning.
In his opening three Süper Lig games Salah has averaged 3.3 shots and 1.7 on target per game and will be on penalty duty. The three goals have come from 1.19 xG, which highlights what an exceptional finisher he still is.
Gençlerbirliği have allowed 11 big chances in three games and conceded twice. Trabzonspor created five in their only home outing, and Salah put two away. The Egyptian King is at home in his new kingdom. At +115, that’s too good to turn down.
Pick: Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer +115
