MLB Best Bets Today September 4
Sixteen games get the weekend going with a double dip in Cleveland between the Tigers and Guardians. Game 1 of that is the only day game on the docket, as the rest of the slate starts at 6:10 p.m. ET or later with more action in Ohio as the Brewers face the Reds. We’ve only got a few of these weekends left and they’re all going to be important.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 4:
Tigers vs. Guardians Game 1 Prediction
Pick: Tigers +113
I don’t like doing early games for the sake of lead time, but this line is wild to me. Keider Montero has been a savior for the Tigers this season with a 3.24 ERA, 3.44 xERA, and a 3.86 FIP over his 139 innings of work. He’s had some blowups here and there, but with all the pitching injuries that Detroit has endured, what he has done has been tremendous. Since moving back into the rotation full-time seven starts ago, he has a 3.29 ERA with a 3.32 xERA and a 4.50 FIP. The FIP is due to a low K%, but he’s got just a 33.1% Hard Hit% in that span.
Logan Allen goes for Cleveland and he only has 14.1 innings at the MLB level this season with a 3.77 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 4.98 FIP. He’s allowed three homers and 17 hits in those 14.1 innings, most of them in relief. At Triple-A, he has a 4.37 ERA with a 3.80 xERA and a 4.49 FIP.
The Guardians had to play yesterday, while Detroit did not, and it was a rough one for Cleveland with a short start from Tanner Bibee and a lot of work for the bullpen. The Tigers come in desperate. The Guardians come in desperate to just tread water.
Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction
Pick: Marlins +134
There aren’t many obvious situational spots in Major League Baseball, but this is one of them. The Cubs flew from ORD to MIA after an emotional 2-1 win over the Brewers to cap off a four-game series that felt like a playoff atmosphere. Without a travel day, the Cubs are now taking on the Marlins. Chicago arrived at almost 2:30 a.m. ET. Oh, and by the way, after this quick trip to Miami, they play in Milwaukee to start next week.
So, this strikes me as one of the potential flattest spots you will ever find. Shota Imanaga gets the call for the Cubs and Janson Junk goes for the Marlins. Imanaga has allowed 15 runs on 21 hits over his last 17.2 innings of work and eight of them have been home runs, which has been an ongoing concern for him this season. He has a 7.13 ERA with a 7.91 FIP in that span, as he does have 23 K, but when he has allowed contact, it hasn’t gone well.
In relief of Imanaga, the Cubs have some heavily-used arms recently. Jacob Webb was out yesterday after getting hit by a line drive comebacker on Wednesday. Daniel Palencia, who hasn’t been sharp since returning from injury, pitched on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ryan Rolison got the save yesterday and has worked back-to-back days and three of the last four. Caleb Thielbar would be working for a fourth time in six days. Ryan Zeferjahn would be working a third time in four days.
Junk has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.27 xERA and a 4.15 FIP over his 103 innings of work, but he has been dramatically better at home this season. Over 59.2 innings of work, he has a 3.62 ERA with a .241/.286/.373 slash against and just a .290 wOBA. On the road in 43.1 innings, he has a 4.78 ERA with a .298/.356/.480 slash against and a .364 wOBA.
He’s in the friendly confines here against some sluggish bats and Junk has actually been good in the second half with a 3.32 ERA over 38 innings of work. After allowing nine HR in 65 innings over the first half, he’s allowed just three HR in the second half.
Miami has had some decent reliever usage this week, but I think they’ll be more focused about going for the win than the Cubs, who didn’t make up any ground on the Brewers in that series and have a 5.5-game lead for the final wild card spot.
Twins vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: White Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+105)
Zebby Matthews is on a heater right now, as he has only allowed one run in each of his last three starts. So, why am I going against him today? A few reasons…
This is his second straight start against the White Sox. He went 8.1 innings with one run allowed on five hits with five strikeouts. The White Sox had 10 hard-hit balls off of him in that game and Matthews only had a 6.8% SwStr%. He got very few Whiffs outside of the zone, as the White Sox didn’t chase much and made contact when they did. Chicago also had a solid 44.2% SqUpCon%, which is Squared Up Contact Percentage, a Statcast metric that illustrates exit velocity based on the sample size of pitches in that area. It was the fifth-highest SqUpCon% allowed by Matthews this season in 19 starts.
Lefties are slashing .270/.336/.451 with a .343 wOBA against Matthews, who also has a 6.38 ERA on the road with a .277/.337/.518 slash allowed and a .368 wOBA. He’s given up 13 HR on the road compared to six at home in a similar sample size.
With a second straight look at Matthews, I think the White Sox make the adjustments and fare well tonight on a warm and humid night with a helping breeze.
