VSiN soccer contributor, finder of “The Angle” for college basketball, and Follow The Money producer Luke DiVasta shares his favorite MLS picks for Saturday, April 18.
Odds as of April 17, 10 a.m. PT
CF Montreal vs. New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal +145 | Draw +255 | New York Red Bulls +155
Over 3.5 Goals (+140) | Under 3.5 Goals (-175)
New York Red Bulls | 3-2-2 | 7th in Eastern Conference
CF Montreal | 1-0-6 | 15th in Eastern Conference
2:30 p.m. ET
We turn again to the bottom of the Eastern Conference table for our first MLS play of the weekend. Montreal enters this match limping, posting a 1-0-4 record in their last five games and a whopping -11 goal differential for the season. Over seven matches, the Impact have faced the league’s most lopsided schedule, with six of their first seven contests on the road. They finally opened at home last weekend and fell 2-1 to Philadelphia.
Montreal sits near the bottom of the league in expected goals (xG) with just 9.24 — only five teams have a lower total. The squad also ranks in the bottom third in both shots on target and shots-on-target percentage. Simply put, they are neither creating nor converting many quality chances. The New York Red Bulls sit at the opposite end of the spectrum. They rank third in MLS in shots on target, though their shots-on-target percentage falls back toward the middle of the pack — plenty of volume, less efficiency. New York also sits third with 14.86 xG. The Red Bulls are 1-2-2 in their last five matches, including a late draw against Miami in which they scored in the final 15 minutes to salvage a point. Look for striker Julian Hall to get involved and find the net; he has already done so four times this season.
Montreal’s struggles are real, and I will continue betting against them until their form improves. They have dropped points to several weaker sides already, and a home favorite priced at +120 or higher is usually a team worth fading.
Pick: New York Red Bulls ML (+155)
Atlanta United vs. Nashville SC
Atlanta United +220 | Draw +240 | Nashville SC +110
Over 2.5 Goals (-120) | Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
Nashville SC | 5-1-1 | 1st in Eastern Conference
Atlanta United | 1-1-5 | 12th in Eastern Conference
7:30 p.m. ET
A road club sitting at slightly plus money is one of my favorite betting indicators in soccer, and this match checks every box. We’re looking at a massive discrepancy in current form.
Nashville is one of the strongest sides in the league right now, winning four of their last five matches. They have allowed just four goals all season—one of the best marks in MLS. The offense is clicking too: Nashville ranks third in goals scored per 90 minutes (2.14) and sits with a solid 12.4 xG. But it’s their defense that has been truly elite. They lead the entire league in shots on target allowed, conceding just 12 through seven games.
Atlanta, by contrast, sits in the bottom five in shots on target and ranks bottom five in goals scored per 90 minutes. They have found the net just once in their last three matches. United have created 9.37 xG this season which places them bottom eight in the league.
By game time, Nashville could easily move to even money or even become a slight favorite. That makes the current plus-money price an excellent value. You’re getting a much stronger side and still locking in positive odds.
Pick: Nashville SC ML (+110)
2026 MLS Picks: 2-2 (-0.4 Units)
