Spain vs. Austria
Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, California.
Thursday, July 2nd, 3:00 p.m. ET
Austria have reached the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time since 1954, but their journey looks set to end as they face one of the tournament’s most complete teams. Moneyline odds of -305 illustrate what strong favorites Spain are to win this clash, but we get a nice boost to -106 by taking them to win without conceding.
The Spanish challenge has been built on the foundation of their rock-solid defense, yet to concede a goal after three group stage games. This follows a trend they set in qualifying, where they kept a clean sheet in five of their six matches.
Luis de la Fuente’s side dominate possession, dictate the tempo of the game, and as a result, they concede very few high-quality chances, with their opponents rarely having the ball in Spain’s defensive third. The 1-0 win over Uruguay in the final group game meant of their last nine wins, eight have come to-nil.
Looking at their group, Austria appears free-scoring, having netted six times, but those goals all came against Algeria and Jordan. When they faced an opponent on par with the Spanish, they fell to a tepid 2-0 loss to Argentina, mustering only six shots with just one on target.
Ralf Rangnick likes his side to press aggressively high up the pitch and play with intensity, but that plays into Spain’s hands, allowing them to exploit that tactic with their quick movement between the lines. The European Champions are masters at limiting turnovers, and if they were to grab an early lead as they do so often, we should see a familiar pattern of dominating the ball, disciplined defending and few clear chances for the Austrians.
Those wary of an Austria goal could play Spain to be winning at halftime and full time (-109), with their last 13 victories coming in that fashion. For me though I’m not convinced by an attack led by 37-year-old Marko Arnautovic, so it is the win-to-nil that gets the vote as my best bet.
World Cup Best Bet: Spain vs Austria – Spain to win to nil at -106
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