Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 492-392 for +43.46 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 at KC)
Trend: Matthew Boyd’s teams are 12-1 (+9.95 units) when he starts in home night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs SD)
* Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 80-68 (+16.04 units, ROI: 10.8%) in their last 148 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-137 vs WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow, since prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 139-111 for -5.62 units and an ROI of -2.2%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-137 vs WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 27-23 for -4.53 units (ROI -9.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): TEXAS (-120 at CLE), MINNESOTA (-115 at HOU)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with an SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 45-79 for -36.86 units and an ROI of -29.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 at BAL), MILWAUKEE (-175 vs CIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 92-118 for +2.45 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost almost 7.5 units the last three weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-136 vs CWS), ST LOUIS (+124 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+144 at MIL), COLORADO (+113 vs MIA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 39-23 for -11.83 units, ROI -19.1%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-227 vs PIT)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 165-216 for -32.56 units. This ROI of -8.5% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+100 vs TEX), NY METS (+101 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (+129 at CHC), HOUSTON (-105 vs MIN), LA ANGELS (+158 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 138-91 for +29.81 units, an ROI of +13%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-125 vs DET), TAMPA BAY (-122 at KC), ARIZONA (-112 vs SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 109-137 start for -23.69 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 46-62 for -16.33 units and a solid ROI -15.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – PITTSBURGH (+185 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-115 at HOU)
3+ games – TEXAS (-120 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 83-83 for +10.87 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-136 vs CWS), ATHLETICS (+141 vs LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 492-392 for +43.46 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 240-179 for +21.69 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 426-360 but for -82.45 units and an ROI of -10.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-149 vs STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,128-2,011 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+185 at PHI), MIAMI (-136 at COL), LA DODGERS (-171 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,160-2,736 (44.1%) for -272.59 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+124 at ATL), SAN DIEGO (+129 at CHC), NY METS (+101 at TOR), LA ANGELS (+158 at SEA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 387-194 (66.6%) for +55.35 units and an ROI of 9.5%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-227 vs PIT)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ home runs themselves but also gave up 3+ home runs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 63-39-5 (62.4%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 33-12 Over streak in the last 45).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PIT-PHI (o/u at 8.5), MIN-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 195-233 SU record for +37.87 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+141 vs LAD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), UNDERDOGS between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 228-263 SU but for +47.33 units (ROI: 9.6%) since the start of the 2020 season. (check em 6/30)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+129 at CHC), ATHLETICS (+141 vs LAD)
* WATCH FOR COLORADO vs MIA (+113 CURRENTLY) and CHICAGO WHITE SOX at BAL (+113 CURRENTLY) *
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 308-316 run (+12.95 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY YANKEES (-125 vs DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 80-68 (+16.04 units, ROI: 10.8%) in their last 148 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-137 vs WSH)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 191-157 (+12.13 units, ROI: 3.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-120 at CLE), BOSTON (-137 vs WSH)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 250-170 in their last 420 tries (+31.97 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-120 at KC), TEXAS (-120 at CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI -136 (+35 diff), LA DODGERS -171 (+27), TEXAS -120 (+25), NY YANKEES -125 (+24)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-CLE OVER 8 (+0.5), MIN-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CWS-BAL UNDER 10.5 (-0.7), SD-CHC UNDER 11.5 (-0.5), SF-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PITTSBURGH (43-42) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (47-38)
Trend: PIT is 5-15 (-12.27 units) on the run line vs left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 28-2 (+24.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-227 vs PIT)
(905) CINCINNATI (39-44) at (906) MILWAUKEE (51-31)
Trend: Over the total is 25-16-1 (+7.40 units) in CIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-MIL (o/u at 9)
(907) SAN DIEGO (43-40) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (47-38)
Trend: Matthew Boyd’s teams are 12-1 (+9.95 units) when he starts in home night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs SD)
(909) MIAMI (45-40) at (910) COLORADO (33-52)
Trend: MIA is 4-11 (-10.19 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-136 at COL)
(911) SAN FRANCISCO (35-49) at (912) ARIZONA (42-42)
Trend: SF is 3-9 (-6.08 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at AZ)
(913) CHICAGO-AL (44-39) at (914) BALTIMORE (39-47)
Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 4-18 (-13.60 units) in his last 22 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 at BAL)
Trend: Under the total is 15-6-1 (+8.45 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-BAL (o/u at 10.5)
(915) TEXAS (43-42) at (916) CLEVELAND (44-41)
Trend: TEX is 6-13 (-8.60 units) in the last 19 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-120 at CLE)
Trend: CLE is 33-18 (+13.33 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 vs TEX)
Trend: TEX is 21-27 (-10.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-1.5 at CLE)
(917) DETROIT (36-49) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (48-36)
Trend: DET is 13-28 (-17.54 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+104 at NYY)
Trend: DET is 23-12 (+2.72 units) in Tarik Skubal’s last 35 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+104 at NYY)
(919) TAMPA BAY (48-33) at (920) KANSAS CITY (35-50)
Trend: TB is 18-7 (+10.60 units) vs left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-122 at KC)
(921) MINNESOTA (41-45) at (922) HOUSTON (42-45)
Trend: Over the total is 30-13-5 (+15.70 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
(923) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-50) at (924) SEATTLE (43-43)
Trend: Under the total is 35-23 (+9.70 units) in LAA night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-SEA (o/u at 7)
Trend: SEA is 25-6 (+16.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-193 vs LAA)
(927) WASHINGTON (43-43) at (928) BOSTON (37-46)
Trend: WSH is 31-13 (+13.59 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-BAL, MIA-COL, LAD-ATH
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, July 3)
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