2024 Australian Open Best Bets – Day 8
The 2023 tennis season feels like it ended just yesterday, but the 2024 Australian Open is here. There’s going to be tons of high-level action in Melbourne Park over the next week or so, and that presents all sorts of opportunities for bettors. Throughout the course of the 2024 tennis season, VSiN will have you covered with daily best bet write-ups for some of the biggest events of the year. That starts with the 2024 Australian Open, and we’re tackling the action for January 20 and 21 here. Keep reading for all of my best bets and check back throughout the day. I’ll add some plays if I see some numbers I like later on.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 27-24 (+5.38 units)
Alex De Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev
De Minaur and Rublev have split wins in their four meetings at the ATP level, and the Australian also won an extra meeting at the Next Gen Finals a few years back. So, while Rublev is arguably the more talented player here, De Minaur has been able to get by him in the past. I just think this is a tough match-up for Rublev, as De Minaur is a world-class defender and can force the Russian to play a lot of extra balls. That increases the chances of Rublev racking up unforced errors.
De Minaur is also getting more and more reliable as a server, and he’s already a great returner. That combination will be big here, as De Minaur will likely be all over the Rublev serve. It’s also worth mentioning that De Minaur will have the support of a wild Australian crowd. That will get him jacked up for this match. Meanwhile, Rublev might not be able to handle all of it mentally.
Bet: De Minaur ML (+114 – 2 units)
Karen Khachanov vs. Jannik Sinner
I have Sinner to win the Australian Open, but I still think these odds are outrageous. Khachanov was somebody that I was worried about heading into this event, but he looked great in a win over Tomas Machac last round. It’s starting to look like the Russian is getting healthy, and he’s a top-15 player in the sport when he’s at 100%. That said, I find it crazy to think that Sinner should be expected to win this match in straight sets. And that’s especially true considering how good Khachanov can be with his serve. This is a match that should feature some long sets, and possibly a tiebreaker or two. So, I’m taking a shot on Khachanov to grab one of them. From there, I’ll root for the Italian to advance and keep my futures alive.
Bet: Khachanov +2.5 Sets (-110 – 2 units)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has lost at least 11 games to each of the three opponents he has faced in Melbourne, and Mannarino is better than all of them. That makes it hard to believe that this player prop is available at some shops, and I’m jumping on it. Mannarino doesn’t have any weapons that will overwhelm Djokovic, but he’s going to play the angles and try and keep the 24-time Grand Slam champion on his toes.
Mannarino is also capable of serving at a high level when he’s playing his very best. That would be huge in a bet like this, as one single set with five or more games would put this well within reach. And I wouldn’t even be surprised if Mannarino steals a set. He might be 35 years old, but he’s playing the best tennis of his career. And his win over Ben Shelton last round was extremely impressive. Speaking of that, this could be a let-down spot for Djokovic, who surely wanted another opportunity to beat up on the American.
Bet: Mannarino Over 10.5 Games Won (-125)
Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Anisimova has looked way better than expected early in this return to action, and I’m buying every bit of what we’re seeing. The American’s power game from the baseline is truly impressive, and I think she’s going to take pride in going out there and slugging away against Sabalenka. This is actually a match-up that has been very kind to Anisimova, as she is 4-1 in five career meetings with Sabalenka. The American also happened to win a set against Sabalenka in the only loss.
With all of that in mind, I like grabbing the plus-money odds on Anisimova to win a set. I know she’s not quite at 100% health right now, and Sabalenka is a different player today than she was the last time they met. But the head-to-head results in this series will surely be a hurdle for Sabalenka to get over, and I think the Belarusian is under a lot of pressure right now. People keep talking about how easy her draw is, but the defending Australian Open champ has some tough match-ups coming up. She can’t afford to lose her edge.
Bet: Anisimova +1.5 Sets (+155)
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