Jannik Sinner will look to win back-to-back Australian Open titles when he faces Alexander Zverev in the final on Sunday, January 26th. Sinner handled American Ben Shelton with ease in the semifinals, but Zverev got through with a little help from a Novak Djokovic injury. The German did win a first-set tiebreaker against Djokovic, but the 24-time Grand Slam champion and 10-time Australian Open champion had to retire because of a muscle tear he suffered against Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. So, Zverev was a little fortunate with his draw, but he was the third-best player in tennis in 2024 and has earned the right to fight for Grand Slam titles. But Zverev has never won one before, and he’s up against a 23-year-old that won two in 2024. So, we’re going to see an interesting dynamic when these two take the court. With that in mind, keep reading for our Zverev vs. Sinner analysis, predictions and best bets.
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Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Friday, January 24 at 2:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -275, Zverev +215
Spread: Sinner -4.5 Games (-115), Zverev +4.5 Games (-115)
Total: Over 39.5 Games (-115), Under 39.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
When: Sunday, January 26th (Australian Eastern Daylight Time)
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
If you look at the head-to-head history between these two, you can easily talk yourself into a spread or moneyline play on Zverev. The German is 4-2 in six career meetings with Sinner. And while the Italian did win the most recent matchup, it was a 7-6 (9), 5-7, 7-6 (4) battle that could have gone either way. However, I’m not sure it’s worth using anything from before 2024 when looking at Sinner. He officially became the juggernaut he is today during last year’s run in Melbourne. That was when everything clicked both physically and mentally. And I’d even say that the Cincinnati match is hard to weigh too much when talking about a pro-Zverev case, as Sinner was quite banged up last summer. If anything, I’d be concerned that Zverev wasn’t able to win that match, especially with it being a Masters 1000 event. Zverev has proven that he is capable of playing high-level tennis in 1000s, but he is a different guy late in Grand Slams.
What does matter when looking at this match is how many clear edges Sinner has on the court. The serve is probably the only place in which somebody would rather have Zverev, but even that is up for debate. After all, Sinner had a higher hard-court hold percentage in 2024 (92.1% vs. 90.3%). On its own, Zverev’s serve is probably more of a weapon, and he did have a slightly higher hard-court Ace Rate (11.4% vs. 10.4%) last year. But you also have to factor in the balls that are played directly after the serve, plus the baseline play of the server to back it all up. And overall, that’s why Sinner has a higher hold percentage than Zverev, even if the German lands more first serves in.
Outside of the serve, everything comes up Sinner. As a returner, Sinner’s 29.9% hard-court break percentage in 2024 was the second-highest on the ATP Tour. Zverev’s number was way down at 21.1%, making it easier to believe in the Italian applying more pressure as a returner. And while Zverev has one of the best backhands in the world, I’m not sure it’s better than Sinner’s. The Italian’s down-the-line backhand is a thing of beauty, and he’s more aggressive in hunting big shots than his opponent here. Also, the weight of Sinner’s normal rally-ball is just heavier than Zverev’s from that wing. And on the forehand side, it’s not even close. Sinner has an elite forehand. Zverev’s is above average, but it gets worse in key moments.
Speaking of those moments, Sinner has now won two Slams and understands what it takes to win matches at the highest level of this sport. He’s going to trust in his game when things matter most, and that means staying true to his style of being aggressive and pounding the ball. Zverev has never shown that he understands the importance of being aggressive — especially from the forehand side — in big matches. Historically, when he has big chances late in Slams, he doesn’t view those as opportunities to hunt. Instead, he feels he should try not to miss. And that passive on-court style often gives his opponents chances to get themselves back into games or matches, whether it’s by gifting them short-balls or committing unforced errors.
In the Djokovic match, we saw the very worst of Zverev at the Slam level. Sure, he won the opening-set tiebreaker, but he had multiple opportunities to run away with the set and he couldn’t bring it upon himself to step on the gas and go for something big. That nearly led to Zverev allowing his 37-year-old opponent to steal the opening frame on one leg. Well, Zverev is going to have to learn that he simply can’t afford to continue playing like this if he wants to win his first major. He has the talent and ability to beat anyone on any given day, but you don’t beat Sinner, Djokovic or Alcaraz without having some gall and ripping the ball.
All in all, I feel comfortable in trusting that Sinner’s firepower will be a little too much for a passive Zverev — especially on the Italian’s favorite surface. So, I’m backing the 23-year-old to win in four or fewer sets. If you tail this, the biggest thing to worry about is Sinner’s body. He has had his physical issues throughout this event, and he even cramped up in his win over Shelton. So, let’s hope Sinner is getting a lot of fluids in and has pickle juice ready to go. But the crazy thing about him is that he has proven he can beat very good players at something like 85.0% health. So, as long as he’s not forced to stop playing, I trust him to win this match somewhat convincingly.
Bet: Sinner -1.5 Sets (-136 – 1.5 units)
