Iga Swiatek has won five Grand Slam titles in her career, but she hasn’t had a lot of success at the Australian Open. Well, that could change on Thursday, as Swiatek is one win away from the finals. Only Madison Keys stands in the way of Swiatek and a chance at major No. 6, but the American is going to be plenty motivated herself. She has played awesome tennis to start 2025, and she definitely views this as a shot at winning her maiden Grand Slam title. So, this is going to be a fun matchup. With that in mind, keep reading for our Keys vs. Swiatek analysis, predictions and best bets.
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Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Wednesday, January 22nd at 5:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Swiatek -450, Keys +350
Spread: Swiatek -5.5 Games (+110), Keys +5.5 Games (-150)
Total: Over 20.5 (-125), Under 20.5 (+100)
How To Watch Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek
Where: Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
When: Thursday, January 23rd (Australian Eastern Daylight Time)
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek Predictions
This is going to be a very interesting clash of styles. Both of these players have the ability to pound winners, but Keys’ shots are flatter and more powerful. However, Keys is also extremely mistake-prone, so she will rack up unforced errors. If she’s on, she’ll have fewer of those, and she’ll do really well in the 0-4 shot rally category. But if she’s not, you’re going to end up feeling bad for the net. And either way, if the courts are playing extremely slow, Swiatek is going to get a million balls back. And the more shots Keys has to play, the more likely it is she will miss eventually. Unfortunately for Keys, this match will be played after the semi-final between Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa. The night matches at Rod Laver Arena tend to play very slow.
The interesting thing is that Keys is really strong on slower hard courts herself. A little extra time for her to set her feet is dangerous when she’s returning or engaged in longer baseline rallies. Against anyone else, I would love a night session for her. But Swiatek is at her worst in fast conditions, and she’s damn near unbeatable when things are slow. She’s just such a good defender that she’s going to make Keys play a ton of extra shots here. And her ability to pound topspin-heavy forehands becomes more dangerous in these grinder-friendly conditions.
I just can’t help but think that Swiatek is going to frustrate the heck out of Keys with her baseline approach. And I actually love something that Swiatek’s new coach Wim Fissette has been saying. He thinks that Swiatek’s previous coaches have made mistakes in trying to encourage a flatter, more powerful baseline game when the Pole plays hard-court matches. Instead, Fissette wants her to play a similar game to the one that wins her Roland Garros year after year. He wants Swiatek to continue to hit the forehand with heavy topspin, and he wants her to be a little more precise in placing those shots. He doesn’t see a need for her to try and match the power coming from the other side. He also wants her to become a better server. Well, the forehand has been awesome in Melbourne, and she hasn’t been making as many errors as she usually does in quicker conditions. The serve has also been better.
Of course, everything we have seen in 2025 needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as this is all a very small sample size. But the Swiatek we’re seeing now looks very capable of correcting her previous hard-court struggles. And I don’t see any reason she can’t handle Keys somewhat easily.
Keys is known as a big, powerful server, capable of racking up easy holds. But I actually don’t think her serve is nearly as good as it once was. She flirts with danger quite a bit, but she has improved as a returner. That has evened things out a little. Well, if she isn’t red hot with the ball on her racquet, Swiatek will make quick work of her. We have seen it so many times in the Pole’s matches. She can win sets as quick as can be, and she’s known to win them 6-1 or 6-0. That makes it hard not to see some value in backing her on the game spread here.
Swiatek has actually won four of her five matches against Keys, and all of their matches have lasted two sets. The last one, which was played in May, was a 6-1, 6-3 win for Swiatek in Rome. They also met a few weeks earlier in Madrid, where Swiatek won by the same exact score. Madrid is a faster clay-court tournament, so the speed didn’t help the American.
I do think people will see that Keys beat Swiatek in Cincinnati in 2022 and use that as a reason to back her, but those are very fast courts and Swiatek had beaten her 6-1, 6-0 in Indian Wells earlier in the season. And I have actually been comparing this year’s Australian Open to Indian Wells a lot. So, I’d suggest looking more into that match than the Cincinnati one.
All in all, I’m as high on Keys as anyone. If you’ve been reading my work here, you know that I have had plenty of Keys futures over the last couple of years. I even had her to win Wimbledon last summer, which was a bummer because she was cruising before getting injured. But some matchups are just brutal for certain players, and this is one that brings out the worst in Keys. Swiatek can neutralize her serving ability, and her baseline game is borderline impenetrable — even for a powerful player like Keys. So, if Swiatek just serves well in this match, she should win somewhat comfortably. Also, even if Keys does win a close set, Swiatek can cover a game spread by being dominant in one of the other two. And it’s rare that Swiatek doesn’t run away with a set.
Lean: Swiatek -4.5 Games (-161)
