We’re going to be treated to a captivating quarter-final matchup at the 2025 Australian Open, as Novak Djokovic will take on Carlos Alcaraz inside Rod Laver Arena. This will be the eighth meeting between these two, and Djokovic has won three of the last four. That includes a victory in the gold medal match at the 2024 Paris Olympics. However, Djokovic was a man possessed at Roland Garros, as he had never won a gold medal in his career. It’ll be interesting to see if he can bring that same intensity to this matchup. Alcaraz will surely want revenge, and the Spaniard is fueled by becoming the youngest player in ATP history to achieve the career Grand Slam. With that in mind, there’s no shortage of drama here. So, keep reading for our Djokovic vs. Alcaraz analysis, predictions and best bets.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Sunday, January 19th at 2:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Alcaraz -215, Djokovic +160
Spread: Alcaraz -3.5 Games (-120), Djokovic +3.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 39.5 Games (-110), Under 39.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
When: Tuesday, January 21st (Australian Eastern Daylight Time)
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
Djokovic hasn’t been an underdog at the Australian Open since 2011, when he faced Roger Federer in the semifinals. This has been the Serbian’s best major throughout his career, as he has won more than 90% of his matches in Melbourne. He’s also a 10-time Australian Open champion. So, it’s certainly interesting to see plus-money odds next to Djokovic’s name here. However, he is 37 years old. And even if you’re insanely optimistic about how he’s going to age and how good of a job he’s doing when it comes to preserving his body, it definitely makes sense that Alcaraz as the favorite.
While Djokovic is 2-0 against Alcaraz on hard courts, the Spaniard has won their last two meetings at majors. Alcaraz is younger, more athletic and arguably hungrier than Djokovic right now. We saw what a thirst for winning meant in this matchup at the Olympics last year. Djokovic brought his A-game to Roland Garros in an effort to win something he had never won before. And in the end, his very best stuff was enough to overcome a version of Alcaraz that was a little shakier than usual. Nerves will do that to a young player. Well, now we’re seeing an in-form Alcaraz, hungry to be the youngest male player to complete the career Grand Slam, against a slightly sloppier Djokovic. That makes me want to back Alcaraz, and I’m doing it by laying 2.5 games.
The tennis offseason is extremely short compared to other sports, but Alcaraz has clearly made the most of it. The Spaniard has been tweaking his serve for years now, but the newest version of it is producing some stellar results. In four matches in Melbourne, Alcaraz is holding at a 94.4% clip. Sure, Alexander Shevchenko, Yoshihito Nishioka, Nuno Borges and an injured Jack Draper don’t exactly make up the most difficult path. However, we have seen Alcaraz gift his opponents breaks regularly throughout his career. That hasn’t happened Down Under.
Alcaraz’s Ace Rate is up at 11.3% this season. Over the last 52 weeks, that number is down at 7.9% on hard courts. He’s also winning 80.6% of his first serve points. That’s up from 77.5% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks.
If Alcaraz continues to look like a different guy with the ball on his racquet, this matchup will suit him better than it has in the past. Djokovic is arguably the best returner in the history of tennis, and he has the ability to put pressure on anybody. Alcaraz hasn’t been an exception. So, if that changes at all when these two take the court, things tip in the Spaniard’s favor quite a bit. And I do feel good about the recent serving success carrying over. A few extra big serves and quick points would do wonders for Alcaraz, whether they’re aces or just serves that get the Spaniard some attackable short balls.
Alcaraz should also do quite a bit of damage as a returner. These courts are playing a little slower than usual — and much slower at night — giving Alcaraz some extra time to pounce on his opponents. And Alcaraz’s coach Juan Carlos Ferrero clearly notices the difference in conditions. We have seen Alcaraz standing a little closer on returns than usual. Also, I’m not buying Djokovic’s early-season serving numbers. The Serbian’s hold percentage is up at 93.7% right now, but he has faced some weak returners. And Djokovic’s serve was a bit of a problem for him in 2024, so it’s hard to buy a huge improvement when Goran Ivanisevic isn’t in his box anymore. Ivanisevic is the coach that was credited with getting Djokovic’s serve to another level, and the shot was less effective after the 24-time Grand Slam champion fired him.
I also really like Alcaraz’s chances of thoroughly dominating the baseline battle. With these conditions being a bit slower, this is now the perfect environment for Alcaraz. The 21-year-old has played some of his best tennis on slower hard courts, with Indian Wells being a place where he has looked borderline impossible to beat. It’s just going to be very difficult for Djokovic to consistently generate the type of power required to get the ball by Alcaraz. The Spaniard just has to be a little smarter about when he looks to go big. He can get to Djokovic by beating him at his own game, going into lockdown mode and hoping the Serb makes bad decisions as he gets tired late in rallies. Alcaraz should also be able to do some real damage with his drop shot in this match. Commentary did a good job of pointing out that Djokovic looked a step slow in exploding to the ball against Jiri Lehecka last round. Well, Alcaraz has one of the best drop shots in the world, so he’ll be looking to get the 37-year-old on the move in this match.
It also has to be noted that Djokovic has had some struggles physically throughout this tournament, looking sick and exhausted a couple of times. And if he’s not at 100% right now, it’ll be very difficult for him to beat Alcaraz in a best-of-five match.
I also like the way that Alcaraz is hitting his backhand to start 2025. While the serve is the talking point when it comes to offseason improvements, Alcaraz is looking a little sturdier with the two-hander Down Under. That shot has been attackable in the past, so I’m interested in seeing how it looks against Djokovic.
There’s just a little too much that 2025 Alcaraz can do to make 2025 Djokovic uncomfortable. That said, I think we’ll see an Alcaraz performance that is worthy of “money, girls, casino.” Let’s just hope nobody heckles Djokovic during the match. There’s nobody better than a pissed off Djokovic shooting deranged-looking stares into the crowd.
Bet: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-140 – 1.5 units)
