At VSiN, we’re giving tennis all the attention it deserves in 2025. Like last year, I’ll be previewing some of the biggest tournaments, offering up in-depth analysis and futures for all of the Masters 1000 events and majors. I’ll also be providing you with written daily best bets for all the 500-level events and higher. Gill Alexander will also be dishing out tennis picks on A Numbers Game (or the picks page – linked below), so sign up for a VSiN subscription if you want access to those! All of it begins with the Australian Open.
Below you’ll find my analysis for the women’s draw, along with my Australian Open futures. Aryna Sabalenka comes into this one looking for her third straight title Down Under, and she has also won three of the last four hard-court majors. Will she get it done? Well, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek will all like their chances of finishing in the winner’s circle. So, there’s going to be all sorts of drama in Melbourne over the next few weeks, and there are plenty of other talented players with the potential to break out. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into my 2025 Australian Open preview!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Australian Open Women’s Draw Analysis
Click here to see the 2025 Australian Open women’s draw!
Quarter 1: Last year, Sabalenka went 40-9 on hard courts and won both of the majors on the surface. The Belarusian still has some work to do in order to catch Swiatek on clay, but Sabalenka is the player to beat on every other surface — even if she’s unproven on grass. With her ability to serve big and pummel the ball from the baseline, she’s capable of simply bullying most opponents in quick conditions. Sabalenka’s only real flaw in the past has been a lack of a mental game. Her second-serve yips were impossible for her to overcome for a while. But Sabalenka has figured everything out between the ears, and she has also gotten better when it comes to point construction and variety. She’s no longer making the types of costly mistakes she used to, and that’s especially true Down Under. She has a great connection with the fans in Australia, so she goes out and plays freely.
In regards to the draw, there’s really nobody in this quarter for Sabalenka to worry about. At some point, Mirra Andreeva will break through and beat Sabalenka, but I don’t see it happening here. This is Sabalenka’s favorite tournament, and Andreeva probably has a ways to go in terms of physical development. She has added some muscle and is going a bit bigger with her serve and forehand these days, but she’s still a few years away from being her very best in every aspect of the game. I’m also not very worried about Sabalenka losing to Qinwen Zheng with a spot in the semis on the line. Both players want to rip the ball as hard as possible, but Sabalenka makes fewer mistakes and has a little more overall game. That’s part of the reason she’s 5-0 against Zheng in tour-level matches.
Quarter 2: This quarter is absolutely loaded. Not only is Gauff the hottest player in the world coming into this event, but she’s joined by Karolina Muchova, Naomi Osaka, Belinda Bencic, Jelena Ostapenko, Paula Badosa, Marta Kostyuk, Liudmila Samsonova and Jessica Pegula in this part of the draw. That’s an insane amount of talent and doesn’t even include Sofia Kenin, Gauff’s first-round opponent.
I do think Gauff will ultimately find a way through. She has played her way into the discussion for best player in the world since the end of last season. Gauff won the year-end championship in 2024, claiming the WTA Finals thanks to an event in which she really hit her forehand well. That was once her biggest weakness and it has looked like a weapon for the last few months — including at the 2025 United Cup, where she beat Leylah Fernandez, Donna Vekic, Swiatek and Muchova and didn’t lose a set doing it. If Gauff can now fix the double-fault problem, she should win a major in 2025. It might even be this one.
However, I do need to note that Gauff is no sure thing to make it through here. Most of the players in this quarter will like their chances, and I’m especially interested in seeing what Muchova can do. Injuries have derailed her career at times, but this is a player that went toe-to-toe with Swiatek on Court Philippe-Chatrier. And Muchova’s game works on every surface. She hits her spots with her serve, can hit big shots or spin-heavy shots from both wings and she’s good at the net. When Muchova is on, she’s an elite player that can challenge everybody at the top.
Pegula has also shown that she can’t be counted out. She was very close to winning her first career major at the US Open. That loss is only going to make her want it more in 2025, and she has the game to win on quick hard courts. She hits flat, powerful strokes from the baseline, and her serve is going to continue to get better after last year’s early-season overhaul.
Quarter 3: It’s a little surprising to see that there’s plus-money odds attached to Rybakina to win this quarter. When looking at this collection of players, I think she should be the odds-on favorite to reach the semis. There’s some weird stuff going on with Rybakina’s coaching situation. She presumably hired Goran Ivanisevic, Novak Djokovic’s former coach, to replace Stefano Vukov. There were some interesting rumors floating around about Vukov in the offseason, and he’s actually suspended by the WTA Tour right now. But after parting ways with Vukov last year, Rybakina announced he’ll be joining the team again as soon as possible. It’s a bizarre situation and I don’t even want to speculate about what’s going on. However, Rybakina has the most dangerous serve in the women’s game, she has a rock-solid baseline game and she continues to make strides as a mover and returner. I’m not fully sold on anybody outside of Sabalenka being better than her in quick conditions, and this quarter isn’t exactly filled with talent. The only players in this portion of the bracket that I believe can make runs are Madison Keys, Danielle Collins and Jasmine Paolini. But I was left somewhat disappointed by Paolini’s play at the United Cup. And Collins has looked bad early in 2025.
It’s just very hard to come up with reasons not to say Rybakina will be in the semifinals. As long as the off-court circus doesn’t get to her head, she should get back to being a big-time factor at majors.
Quarter 4: Will Swiatek get back on track at a non-clay major? The Pole did win the US Open back in 2022, but she hasn’t had much success on hard courts since then. Also, Swiatek’s best finish at the Australian Open was a semi-final appearance back in 2022. Much like Wimbledon, this tournament just hasn’t brought out the best in Swiatek. However, that can change at any moment. While it’d be nice if Swiatek had better career hard-court major results, she’s still just 23 years old. She has also proven herself to be very dangerous in quick conditions — even if this is also where she’s most beatable. In fact, Swiatek had the best hard-court record on the WTA Tour last year, going 34-6. She also won the United Cup, took home a title in Doha and then won Indian Wells. So, blindly saying she can’t win off clay simply isn’t true. But she does need to prove to people that she can block out negativity in matches and find ways to come through when she isn’t playing her best.
Fortunately for Swiatek, her draw is incredible. I’m actually not sure I see her being challenged until the quarterfinals, and her matchups wouldn’t be all that bad there. As far as top seeds go, Emma Navarro and Daria Kasatkina are extremely weak.
If it’s not going to be Swiatek that heads to the semifinals, I’m not sure who it’ll be. Maybe Ons Jabeur makes an early-season statement? The Tunisian isn’t seeded, but she’s a three-time runner-up at majors and doesn’t have a terrible draw. I also liked how she looked in Brisbane and Adelaide. Losing to Andreeva and Putintseva isn’t something to be alarmed about.
Australian Open Futures
Elena Rybakina To Win Quarter 3 (+160 – 1.5 units) & Australian Open (10-1 – 0.5 units): I took Rybakina to win the tournament at 10-1 before seeing the draw. I just didn’t think that number should be floating out there for a player with her booming serve and reliable quick-court game. I posted it to the Pro Picks page a few weeks ago, and I’m extremely happy I did. I got a better number than I’m seeing anywhere else now. However, if you have to take +900 then you should go ahead and do so. That’s still a good payout considering her pre-semis draw. I’m also adding Rybakina to win her quarter. I’m a little nervous about a potential meeting with Keys, who also has a massive serve and a ton of baseline power. But Keys has had trouble staying healthy over the course of longer tournaments recently. She’s also more prone to early upsets.
Iga Swiatek To Win Quarter 4 (+105 – 2 units) & Australian Open (+480): I really didn’t see myself taking Swiatek to do much of anything Down Under. I’m excited about the work she’s going to do with her new coach, Wim Fissette. However, I think it’s going to take a little time for that partnership to yield big on-court results. So, what changed? It’s simple. Her draw is just so damn favorable. Are there players that can beat Swiatek before the semifinals? Sure. But Swiatek will feel good about every single matchup she’ll have until the semis. So, I’m putting a big play on her to win the quarter. I’m also going to put a unit on her to win the tournament. If I’m right about Rybakina and Swiatek making the semifinals, I’d be happy to have a finalist locked up at a great price — even if I expect Sabalenka or Gauff to win from there.
Make sure you check out my Australian Open predictions and futures for the men’s side!
