Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 10 of the 2025 Australian Open:
Day 10 of the 2025 Australian Open will feature some exciting matches. One of them pits Novak Djokovic against Carlos Alcaraz in a blockbuster quarter-final showdown. I already wrote up a preview on that match. However, we’ll see several other enticing matchups in Melbourne Park, and I have some tennis best bets for a few of them. Keep reading for my favorite tennis picks for both the men’s and women’s sides of the bracket.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 58-51-1 (+3.12 units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
I loved Sabalenka in her meeting with Mirra Andreeva last round, and she absolutely cruised to a victory in that one. Sabalenka won 6-1, 6-2 in a match that lasted just one hour and three minutes. The two-time defending champion is now a massive favorite against Pavlyuchenkova, who hasn’t been a factor in the WTA in a long time. That said, Sabalenka really should be able to advance to the semifinals. However, I’m not sure I see her doing it as convincingly as the oddsmakers do.
While Pavlyuchenkova might not be known to newer, casual tennis fans, she’s a former French Open runner-up (2021). Pavlyuchenkova has also been ranked as high as No. 11 in the world, and she really can be a dangerous ball striker when she’s healthy. Well, after a 7-6 (0), 6-0 win over Donna Vekic in the fourth round, it’s hard to view her as anything but healthy.
Pavlyuchenkova is powerful and plays an aggressive brand of tennis, so she can actually speed Sabalenka up if she’s hitting her spots. And that’s part of the reason why Pavlyuchenkova has had success against Sabalenka in the past. She’s actually 2-1 in three career meetings with the Belarusian, but all of those matches came before 2022. So, we haven’t seen Pavlyuchenkova play against this new, elite version of Sabalenka. And ultimately, the Belarusian’s serve and ability to move around the baseline give her a big advantage in this battle between two sluggers. But is that advantage so big that Pavlyuchenkova can’t win seven games in this entire match? I don’t think so.
If Pavlyuchenkova continues to serve the way she’s been serving in 2025, she should be able to put a decent dent in the scoreboard. Realistically, Andreeva had her chances to do damage against Sabalenka, but the lopsided first set got in her head and made it impossible for her to play her game in the second. Pavlyuchenkova won’t be as flustered. She’s a veteran that has been around the block, and her experience against Sabalenka should give her some confidence.
Bet: Pavlyuchenkova Over 6.5 Games Won (-116)
Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Click here for my best bet and preview of Djokovic-Alcaraz!
Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev is coming off an impressive 6-1, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 win over Ugo Humbert last round. The German has had a very favorable draw at this event, but that was a tough match and he passed the test with flying colors. But the quarterfinals will bring on a much tougher challenge. Zverev will be going up against Paul, who is surprisingly 2-0 against him in his career. And the way I’m attacking this one is by going Over 3.5 sets.
The odds here are a little tough to stomach, but it really is difficult to see this being a straight-set win either way. Zverev is simply too good of a server not to at least get on the board once. This is a guy that had a hold percentage of 90.0% in 2024, and he landed 71.2% of his first serves. This year, he’s holding at 92.4% and making 71.0% of his first serves. That type of serving, combined with Zverev’s high-quality baseline game, gives him an extremely high floor within each match.
As for Paul, he doesn’t have the effortless ability to rack up holds. But I would be stunned if he can’t win at least one set. Paul is just a very difficult matchup for Zverev, as he’s one of the best returners in tennis. So, if there’s anybody that can consistently put Zverev under pressure on his serve, it’s Paul. And Paul also has one of the best backhands in the sport. So, while Zverev usually has a massive edge in backhand-to-backhand exchanges, that won’t be the case here. Paul will have no problem going blow for blow when it comes to hitting the two-hander across the court. And while both players are shaky from the forehand side, Paul has been gaining confidence from that wing throughout this event. That’s pretty significant considering Paul changed racquets to try and up the power he hits the forehand with.
It’s also worth quickly mentioning that the slower conditions in Melbourne this year definitely help Paul a little bit. His two wins over Zverev came in Acapulco and Indian Wells, which are two slower hard-court events.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-182)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
