Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 11 of the 2025 Australian Open:
Day 11 of the 2025 Australian Open will feature some exciting matches. One of them pits defending champion Jannik Sinner against Aussie Alex de Minaur in a quarter-final showdown. However, we’ll see a bunch of other enticing matchups in Melbourne Park, and I have some tennis best bets for a few of them. Keep reading for my favorite tennis picks for both the men’s and women’s sides of the bracket.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 58-51-1 (+3.12 units)
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ben Shelton
Sonego beat Shelton 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 when the two met at Roland Garros in 2023. However, that match was played a long time ago. It was also played on Sonego’s favorite surface. With things now moving over to hard courts, I think we’ll see the American win in four or fewer sets.
Sonego is one of the weakest returners on tour, as he’s coming off a season in which he had a break percentage of just 13.5%. It’s just very difficult to imagine him disrupting Shelton’s serve, even if the Italian has looked a little better about getting balls back in 2025. Shelton should also be a little more battle-tested from the baseline here. The American is through to the quarters after facing Brandon Nakashima, Pablo Carreno Busta, Lorenzo Musetti and Gael Monfils. He has had a much tougher draw than Sonego, who has defeated Stan Wawrinka, Joao Fonseca, Fabian Marozsan and Learner Tien.
Sonego has been somewhat fortunate to face players that simply can’t handle his talent or power from the baseline. And the one player that could was Fonseca, but the teenager looked tired and nervous. He played the worst match he has played in weeks against Sonego. Shelton likely won’t do that. The American is far more talented than Sonego, but he also lives for big moments. Shelton has actually been to a semi-final at a Slam before, and he did that with fearless play and an unflappable attitude. I trust him a lot more in this spot. I also think we’ll see a tiebreaker or two in this match, and Shelton’s serve would give him a big edge over Sonego there.
The Shelton cross-court forehand into the Sonego backhand also seems like a very dangerous exchange for the Italian. I think Sonego is going to get crushed there, causing him to run around it rather often. But that’ll give Shelton the chance to find the open space on the other side. This just feels like a match that should be over without a lot of drama.
Bet: Shelton -1.5 Sets (-141)
Alex de Minaur vs. Jannik Sinner
I would have liked to find a reason to back de Minaur in his home Slam, but this is a brutal matchup for him. In seven tour-level matches, Sinner is 7-0 against the Australian. And de Minaur hasn’t won a set off Sinner since 2020. These two have also played two Davis Cup matches, with Sinner winning both of them in straight sets. Sinner has also won some lopsided sets against de Minaur, including a 6-0 second set in their Davis Cup match in 2023.
There’s just very little that de Minaur can do to even throw Sinner off on a tennis court. The Australian is unbelievable at extending rallies and grinding out wins, but Sinner has no problem in longer rallies. And his average shots, or rally-balls, are so heavy that they can move de Minaur around a little bit. The Italian is just capable of pushing de Minaur around without even having to swing big, which is something nobody else on the ATP Tour can really do. Also, de Minaur can’t afford to simply wait for Sinner to make unforced errors, as the Italian rarely makes dumb mistakes.
On top of all of that, Sinner is an elite server and returner. So, while de Minaur is a great returner, he’s probably not going to be breaking the Italian all that often. And while de Minaur has worked tirelessly on his serve, it’s not even close to good enough to keep Sinner from racking up breaks. In fact, the Australian will probably be under pressure for most of this match.
This just has the potential to be an extremely one-sided match, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Sinner wins a set or two with a score of 6-2 or worse. I’m also not too worried about Sinner’s health. He had some issues in his match against Holger Rune, but he implied after the match that he wasn’t feeling well in the morning. If he was just not feeling very well, he’ll be better by the time these two play.
Bet: Sinner -5.5 Games (-161)
Emma Navarro vs. Iga Swiatek
For anybody that took my advice in my women’s draw analysis and followed me on Swiatek to win Quarter 4, I’d suggest hedging just a little bit. My other futures didn’t go very well at this event, so this is more of damage control. I’d be surprised if Navarro actually gives Swiatek trouble, as the Pole really only struggles with big, powerful players that can rush her process. Navarro really should’t be able to do that. However, I don’t want to risk going down big on futures, so I’ll take a little Navarro action now. Then, if Swiatek wins, I’ll let my outright Australian Open future ride.
Hedge: Navarro ML (+900 – 0.25 units)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
