Tennis picks & predictions today for Day 9 of the 2025 Australian Open:
The 2025 Australian Open has already given us some fun matches, but the best is yet to come. The top ATP players in the world are in Melbourne for the season’s first major, and we’re into the most exciting part of the event. It’s nothing but blockbusters from here. With that in mind, keep reading for my favorite selections for Day 9 of the matches on the men’s side, which will be played on Sunday, January 19th and Monday, January 20th for those of us in the United States. The day will feature guys like Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur in action, so you won’t want to miss out on these matches.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story before matches start — or regularly checking the picks page. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I’ll occasionally see some interesting line movement and add to my card a few hours before matches begin. That said, I’ll add picks to the picks page throughout the day, but I’ll also throw them at the bottom of these articles after I do. Gill Alexander, who does a great job of handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game (M-F from 10:00 am ET to 12:00 pm ET), also posts his tennis picks to the picks page!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 55-45 (+8.79 units)
Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner
Rune and Sinner have played four times in their head-to-head history. The Dane has actually won two of the matches, and he has also won at least one set in all of them. On top of that, Rune has won at least 14 games in three of the four meetings, which is impressive considering they have never played a best-of-five match. With that in mind, I like the idea of taking Rune to win 14 or more games in this match.
Rune definitely has some fitness concerns coming into this one, as he cramped up in his five-set win over Miomir Kecmanovic last match. However, I don’t see retiring being an option for Rune, and the 21-year-old should at least be able to play near his top level for the first couple of sets. And for as good as Sinner is, we have seen that Rune’s best stuff is good enough for him to hang around with anyone.
People forget that for years Rune was supposed to be right in the mix with Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the men’s game. And while the other two have definitely run away from him, he’s still a top-10 talent on the ATP Tour and he’s not being priced like one.
If Rune can just really lock in mentally, I like his chances of working deep in sets — and possibly even stealing one. There really aren’t many holes in the 21-year-old’s game. He can rip winners from both sides of the court, he’s a good defender and he has all the variety in the world. The only red flag with Rune is the mental game, but he’s certainly working on it. He hired his old coach Lars Christensen, who is the only person that has really gotten through to him throughout his career. So, I’m expecting to see purpose and direction in this match, which is something Rune has lacked in big spots before.
I also just love the fact that Rune believes he’s every bit as good as Sinner. You need to have some dawg in you to compete with the very best this sport has to offer.
Bet: Rune Over 13.5 Games Won (-114 – 1.5 units)
Gael Monfils vs. Ben Shelton
Alex Michelsen vs. Alex de Minaur
I’m running with a two-leg parlay as one of my Day 9 plays. For Monfils vs. Shelton, I’m going Over 3.5 sets. The reason I looked to this match is because I like Monfils to get on the board. However, the parlay moves from -186 odds to -124 if I go Over 3.5 sets instead of Monfils to win one. And considering Shelton is -1000 to win one set, that feels like the right move to make. With this match, I’m just expecting a lot of holds, and potentially a couple of tiebreakers. And if that’s the type of match this ends up being, both players really should win at least a set. The reason for the confidence in Monfils is the level he has brought to start the season. Not only does Monfils have a 90.3% hold percentage in 2025, but he’s doing some great work from the baseline. Against Taylor Fritz, I loved the way he extended rallies and went into lockdown mode to wait out errors from the American. And whenever Fritz did give him something to attack, he went after it. If he can bring that same balance against Shelton, he should avoid being run off the court. As for Shelton, the serve and overall power makes it highly unlikely he’ll lose in straights.
The de Minaur play is a lot easier to explain. I’m riding with the Aussie to take advantage of home-court advantage to defeat a very green opponent. Michelsen has some serious talent. He’s big, has a missile of a first serve and he’s better from the baseline than guys his size usually are — especially from the backhand wing. But when asked about his run after his win over Karen Khachanov, Michelsen noted that he’s been hitting his forehand a lot better than usual. He’s not wrong. Michelsen has been hitting the cover off the ball from that side, but I’m not sure that can be expected to continue. And de Minaur is definitely going to test it. The Australian is one of the best defenders and counter-punchers in tennis, and he’s going to see what type of mistakes he can get out of the Michelsen forehand. He’s also just going to do everything he can to extend rallies and try to make Michelsen uncomfortable. Also, de Minaur is as good of a returner as there is in the sport, so he can neutralize the Michelsen serve a bit. De Minaur just needs to make sure he’s doing some damage with his own serve and forehand. But playing in Melbourne helps. The adrenaline adds a little to both.
PARLAY: Monfils-Shelton Over 3.5 Sets & De Minaur ML (-124 – 1.5 units)
Learner Tien vs. Lorenzo Sonego
I wasn’t planning to play anything in this match. I think the hype we’re seeing for Tien is outrageous, and I’m not sure he’ll ever be as good as the public currently thinks he’ll be. I watched a lot of Challenger-level tennis last year, and I’m pretty confident in saying I saw five or so prospects with brighter futures. However, I do think the odds have moved so far in Sonego’s direction that there’s now some value on the American.
Sonego has played some unreal tennis in Melbourne, and a win over Tien could give him something of a “Next Gen Killer” gimmick. Sonego knocked out Joao Fonseca in the second round, putting an end to another hype train Down Under. And in 2025, Sonego is now 5-2 and has a hold percentage of 88.8%. However, Sonego’s hold percentage is just 83.5% over the last 52 weeks, so I’m not sure how sustainable this serving is. And the Italian remains one of the worst returners on the ATP tour. In that same 52-week span, Sonego’s break percentage is down at 15.9% on hard courts.
I just don’t think it’s crazy to expect a good serving performance from Tien here, and the southpaw’s solid returning skills will put a lot of pressure on Sonego. And from the baseline, Tien is an awesome counter-puncher that plays great defense. All in all, “pushing” probably describes his playing style, but so what? He’s finding ways to win matches. And Sonego is the type of player Tien likes to face. The Italian has a ton of firepower from the back of the court, but he doesn’t always have a clear game plan heading into matches. So, Tien should really have an advantage when it comes to point construction, and his ability to get balls back could eventually get to Sonego and cause him to go even bigger — leading to misses.
It’s also huge that Tien played only two hours and 49 minutes against Corentin Moutet last round. I’m not sure it was even that much, as there was a lot of nonsense from Moutet that took time to sort out. But either way, Tien needed a shorter match after having played back-to-back five-setters in his first two matches — and also having to go through qualifying.
If all of that isn’t enough, there’s also the fact that this continues to be a bit of a free roll for Tien. Sure, he has never been on a stage like this before, but there isn’t much expected of him. That’s allowing him to play freely and even go a little bigger from the baseline than he usually does. On the other side of the net, Sonego will be expected to beat his younger opponent and advance.
Bet: Tien ML (+135)
Added Plays
I can’t guarantee there will be more picks here, but there’s always a chance I’ll add something. For big tournaments like the Aussie Open, I’d suggest checking the Pro Picks page every couple of hours. I’ll add my additional plays there and then toss them in this story after.
