It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells tournament preview. I’ll dive into the court conditions and give you some of my favorite plays on the futures market.
Indian Wells playing conditions
A lot has been made of this year’s move from a Plexipave surface to a Laykold surface, and Indian Wells tournament officials even noted that they’d like to see this event play more like other traditional hard-court tournaments. The BNP Paribas Open is normally one of the grittiest hard-court events of the year, playing more like a clay-court event than a hard-court event. However, Laykold is the hard-court surface that is used at the Miami Open and US Open, so many thought this year’s tournament would play faster — thanks to lower, quicker bounces. Well, I’d pump the brakes on handicapping this thing any differently than you have in previous years.
Things can definitely change in the coming days, but the first day of tournament qualifying saw a lower percentage of first-serve points won than the last couple of years. Usually there’s a 1-3% jump in first-serve points won from qualifying to main-draw action, so a slight improvement can be expected when the top players enter this mix. But overall, I’m thinking the lack of altitude and desert conditions will win out in making this play like one of the slower hard-court events of the year.
In 2024, Tennis Abstract gave Indian Wells a Surface Speed rating of 0.84, which means the Ace Rate at the BNP Paribas Open is 16% lower than your standard tour-average event. Maybe that Ace Rate will creep up a little bit, but I’d be surprised if it goes higher than 0.98 — which is the speed in Montpellier. By comparison, the US Open had a Surface Speed of 1.01 last year. Miami was 1.10.
Indian Wells men’s futures
Novak Djokovic To Win Tournament (+650 – 0.5 units): Djokovic hasn’t won this tournament since 2016, but there’s no reason that can’t change here. Djokovic will have to face Carlos Alcaraz, who has won this tournament in back-to-back years, in the quarterfinals. However, that’s a matchup in which Djokovic should feel pretty good. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has had Alcaraz’s number lately, beating him in straight sets in the gold medal match at the 2024 Paris Olympics and then again in four sets at the 2025 Australian Open. Alcaraz has had no answer for Djokovic’s slider serves, and the Serbian’s ability to stay solid from the baseline has also been an issue for the Spaniard. Alcaraz is very quick to try and end rallies with massive shots, which is understandable given his absurd talent. But until Alcaraz learns to play a bit smarter against Djokovic, I’m going to like the Serb’s chances of beating him. And if Djokovic does get by Alcaraz, I’m not sure I see anybody else getting the better of him. Jannik Sinner remains suspended for the next couple of months, and he’s one of the few players on tour with the talent and mental strength required to best the soon-to-be 38-year-old. So, at +650 odds, I’m firing up a play on Djokovic and hoping he doesn’t slip up against a lesser opponent.
Stefanos Tsitsipas To Win Tournament (19-1 – 0.25 units): I’m also putting a little something on Tsitsipas to win this tournament. I’m not sure I see the Greek star winning two outdoor hard-court events in a row, but he’s in a very manageable portion of the draw. Alexander Zverev is the top-seeded player in Quarter 1 and the German has been absolutely miserable lately. That said, this quarter is 100% gettable for a player like Tsitsipas, who found his game after a racquet change in Dubai last week. If Tsitsipas continues to just be decent from the backhand wing, he’s going to be a very tough out over the next few weeks — and he’ll be especially dangerous as the ATP Tour moves to clay. The only matchup I’m very concerned about is a third-round battle with Matteo Berrettini, as those two played a very close match in Dubai. But it’s worth throwing a dart on Tsitsipas at 19-1. Recent form is always important to factor in, and nobody is in better form than Tsitsipas.
Indian Wells women’s futures
Aryna Sabalenka To Win Quarter 1 (-120 – 2.5 units) & Sabalenka To Win Tournament (+450): I’m putting in a pretty big play on Sabalenka to make the semifinals. It’s just hard to find any real obstacles in her section of the draw, as the highest-seeded player she’d face in the quarterfinals is Jasmine Paolini — who will likely struggle to even get there. Before that, Sabalenka should be able to out-power and out-execute pretty much everyone. It would take a pretty monumental collapse for her to fall before the semis.
I’m also taking Sabalenka to win the tournament, as it’d simply be worth having a +450 ticket if she does ultimately get to the semifinals. And overall, the move to a Laykold court makes her a little more dangerous, as she’s the most powerful player on tour and will 100% benefit from a bit of a quicker playing surface — even if it’s just marginally faster. Sabalenka won’t be an underdog against anybody at this event, so getting +450 is tough to pass up. I know her recent form leaves a bit to be desired, but she’s the No. 1 player in the world and can easily flip a switch.
Belinda Bencic To Win Quarter 2 (+500 – 0.5 units) & Emma Navarro To Win Quarter 2 (+700 – 0.5 units): With Coco Gauff once again struggling to kick things into gear, Quarter 2 is wide open on the women’s side. With that in mind, it’s worth taking shots on Bencic and Navarro to reach the semifinals — and I really wouldn’t be surprised if they clash in the quarters. This season, Bencic is 13-4 and has earned wins over Anna Kalinskaya, Jelena Ostapenko and Elena Rybakina. She was also up a set against a red-hot Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open. It’s just hard to identify too many players that are playing better tennis than Bencic right now, so I like her at this number. However, I’m also playing Navarro. The American actually beat Bencic in Dubai a few weeks ago, and she then went to Merida and won a tournament in dominant fashion. Navarro should now be feeling great heading into this event, where her all-court game makes her a good match for the conditions.
Jessica Pegula To Win Quarter 3 (+600 – 0.5 units) & Naomi Osaka To Win Quarter 3 (+900 – 0.5 units): I’m also taking two shots in Quarter 3, as I’m not sure I see Elena Rybakina coming through a loaded portion of the draw. Instead, I’m rolling with Osaka, who hasn’t lost a completed match this year, and Pegula, who just played some great tennis on her way to winning a title in Austin. Honestly, there’s so many good players in this section of the draw that anybody can make it out — including Rybakina, Pegula, Osaka, Mirra Andreeva, Clara Tauson, Elina Svitolina and others. But Osaka’s power is going to be hard for other players to deal with, and the slower conditions will help her move around a bit better — which is something she has already been doing with Patrick Mouratoglou as her coach. Meanwhile, Pegula’s big, flat strokes make her an asset in tournaments like these. If the American has a good week or two serving, there’s no reason she can’t go deep.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast – Gill had Drew Dinsick on for some pre-draw Indian Wells thoughts, and then Gill and I dove into some futures once the draw was released. Make sure you check it out!
