Marta Kostyuk and Linda Noskova will battle for a spot in the Wimbledon finals when they meet in the semis at the All England Club on Thursday, July 9. I’m dropping my favorite play for this match below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page. I usually have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on the way lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his bets.
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Marta Kostyuk vs. Linda Noskova
Kostyuk and Noskova clashed in the Madrid quarterfinals, with the Ukrainian earning a 7-6 (1), 6-0 victory on her way to winning that 1000-level title. While that match was played on Kostyuk’s preferred surface, they were server-friendly conditions. So, I’m not sure you can discount Kostyuk’s straight-set win, even if she did enjoy the conditions more than her opponent.
As we look towards this matchup, it does feel like Kostyuk’s overall edge in athleticism could loom large. I thought Elise Mertens would take a set off Noskova, as I believe the one thing holding the Czech phenom back is her rally tolerance. She can bomb away as a server, as Tennis Abstract has her with the fourth-highest hold rate (79.6%) on tour. She also has the ability to blast winners from the back of the court. But she can also be rushed into errors, and she can also pull the trigger on some questionable shots when she’s running balls down. That’s something Kostyuk will look to take advantage of.
Mertens had the ability to track down a ton of balls against Noskova, and her court coverage is nothing compared to Kostyuk’s. On top of that, Kostyuk has the ability to blast shots from the forehand wing. So, in addition to being able to play aggressive tennis herself, she can also turn defense into offense a little easier. Mertens was simply hoping to put balls back in play, whereas Kostyuk will be looking to hit targets with them.
Kostyuk’s hold percentage is nothing to sneeze at either. She’s at 75.8% for the season and continues to get better and better with the ball on her racquet. The Ukrainian also happens to be No. 1 on the WTA Tour when looking at break percentage (47.6%), and Noskova isn’t anywhere near there. The Czech star’s break rate is 31.6% this season.
Noskova is the better overall server between these two, but that feels like her biggest advantage in looking at this tilt. Is it big enough? The numbers say no. When combining the serve and return into one category, Kostyuk has the overall edge. She’s also a better baseliner.
I have had my doubts about Kostyuk’s grass-court ability, as she was a losing player on this surface heading into the tournament. But it’s pretty clear that she has taken a liking to it, and it’s also pretty obvious that Kostyuk is making a leap into the top tier in the women’s game. If you don’t believe that, just look at what has happened over the last couple of months. Kostyuk has won 22 of her last 23 matches, and this is a stretch that includes nothing but massive tournaments.
Noskova should have her day at the All England Club. I’ve been saying she’ll win a 1000 or a Slam in the near future, and she does have a shot here. But I feel like we’re getting a discount on Kostyuk based on who she was in the past. She needs to start being treated like the Tier 1 player she has become.
Bet: Kostyuk ML (-128)
