Nitto ATP Finals tennis best bets: Alcaraz vs. Rublev, Medvedev vs. Zverev – Wednesday, November 15
There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Nitto ATP Finals should help us go out with a bang. Eight of the ATP Tour’s top players are in Turin, Italy for this year-end event, including Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev. The players are split into two groups of four, and there will be round-robin play amongst the two of them. The players with the two best records in each group will go to the semifinals, where they’ll then compete in a single-elimination format for the final big prize of the year. With that in mind, I’ll be providing you with daily tennis bets for the next week, and that continues with two plays on Wednesday, November 15.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev
Alcaraz has been complaining about the conditions in Turin, and he has also acknowledged that he is mentally fatigued at this point in the year. So, this might be Rublev’s best chance of beating Alcaraz for a while. However, sometimes you just have to play a number. And getting Alcaraz to beat Rublev at this price is something I’d take at any other point in the season, so I’m not going to pass on it now. I’m fully expecting a C+ level from Alcaraz in this match, and indoor hard courts favor Rublev quite a bit. But I’d take Alcaraz’s C+ level over anything other than Rublev’s A+, which is why I’m alright with playing the Spaniard in this weird spot. Alcaraz was at least competitive in his three-set loss to Alexander Zverev last match. Rublev absolutely imploded in a loss to Daniil Medvedev. I also just think Alcaraz is the better returner and baseline player — from both sides of the court. He also has more variety in his game. So, Alcaraz would have to serve very poorly to let this one get away. I don’t think that will happen.
Bet: Alcaraz -2.5 games (-120)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev is coming off one of the biggest wins in his career, as he earned a tough three-set win over Alcaraz in group play. Now, Zverev should be brimming with confidence in this meeting with Medvedev. That said, I’m taking Zverev at +1.5 sets in this matchup, as he has actually won at least a set in three of his last five meetings with Medvedev. But I also think he’ll have a good shot at winning this one outright, as his serve and power game from the baseline are all the more dangerous indoors.
Bet: Zverev +1.5 Sets (-140 – 2 units) & Zverev ML (+180)
2023 Overall Record: 314-285 (+56.21 units)
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