The matchup in the men’s final at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia couldn’t possibly be better. We’re going to get the first ever meeting between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in a 1000-level final, and the fact that it will be played on a clay-court in Rome only adds to the intrigue. Alcaraz has been the best clay-court player in the world over the last 52 weeks, and he won a 1000-level event in Monte-Carlo just a couple of weeks ago. But Sinner is out to prove that he can beat Alcaraz on any surface, and the Italian is going to have an opportunity to do it in front of an Italian crowd. This is the type of matchup that should excite non-tennis, and I’m going to break it all down below.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, May 16th at 7:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -150, Alcaraz +120
Spread: Sinner -1.5 Games (-125), Alcaraz +1.5 Games (-105)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-110), Under 22.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Foro Italico in Rome, Italy
When: Sunday, May 18th at 11:00 am ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
With Rafael Nadal having retired in 2024, Alcaraz is viewed as the new clay-court king — especially after his recent Monte-Carlo triumph, and he’s the reigning Roland Garros champion, having defeated Sinner en route to that title last year. But this isn’t Paris; this is Italy, and the Italian crowd will be firmly behind Sinner, their hometown hero. That energy could be just what Sinner needs to break his three-match losing streak against Alcaraz. While the Spaniard’s clay-court credentials are undeniable, Sinner’s peak level is good enough to topple anyone, anywhere.
When this tournament began, I honestly didn’t expect Sinner to reach the final — not because of his skill, which I consider the best in the world, but due to concerns about his conditioning after a lengthy layoff. Sinner clearly used his time off to build strength, as he looks about as swole as a lanky guy can possibly look. And he surely did a good amount of cardio. But nothing replicates the intensity of real matches. I thought rust or fatigue might catch up to him. Instead, Sinner has looked rejuvenated and ready to chase a calendar Slam. His 6-0, 6-1 demolition of Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals was one of the most dominant displays I’ve seen in years. When I used to think of flawless performances, it used to be Novak Djokovic’s 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 dismantling of Nadal in the 2019 Australian Open final. But Sinner’s performance against Ruud is right there with it, even if the stakes weren’t as high. And even when Sinner wobbled against Tommy Paul in the semis, the Italian quickly found his game and closed out the match, 1-6, 6-0, 6-3.
Given Sinner’s current level, this matchup looks daunting for Alcaraz. Yes, Alcaraz has won their last three encounters and has had more time to find his rhythm this season, but his form in 2025 hasn’t matched his 2024 heights. In fact, it’s fair to say his game has been showing signs of decline for the better part of three years. Alcaraz’s best tennis remains electrifying, but it appears less frequently; instead, we see flashes of brilliance mixed with stretches of inconsistency.
One major issue for Alcaraz is his serve. His hold percentage of 83.6% isn’t what you’d expect from someone with his firepower and shot-making ability. And if he struggles on serve against Sinner, he better make sure he has an early reservation ready at Taverna Trilussa.
Alcaraz’s baseline game is also questionable in this matchup. While he can frustrate Sinner with his movement, he often prefers to trade power shots rather than rely on his athleticism to grind out points. That approach could backfire, as Sinner’s effortless baseline power and depth can force errors from even the best defenders.
Ultimately, the current version of Alcaraz is too unpredictable to back against Sinner, who combines spectacular shot-making with a low-risk style. The head-to-head may favor Alcaraz, but I’m betting that starts to change — especially with a raucous Roman crowd behind Sinner.
As some of you might know, I did back Alcaraz to win this tournament at +275. But I really think Sinner is going to win this thing, so I’m backing the Italian to win 1.5 units.
Pick: Sinner ML (-133 – 1.5 units)
