Pimlico Picks for Saturday, May 17 from Mike Somich:
It’s Preakness day with the second Jewel of the Triple Crown up for grabs at Pimlico Race Course! While that is the highlight of the card, there are great races to play throughout the day! Let’s dive into the card.
The Preakness, Pimlico, Race #13
Much like the Kentucky Derby this year, I’m expecting a fast pace in this year’s Preakness with speed signed up to the inside in #1 Goal Oriented and #8 Clever Again. That should set up well for #2 Journalism, who was installed at 8/5 on the morning line. The major, and really only, knock on him is the quick turnaround from the Derby after a major effort there. People seem to forget that Journalism ran three races in seven weeks as a two-year-old and got better with each start. Trainer Michael McCarthy did not need to run here. He could have waited for the Belmont and been either the favorite or second choice there. While it is not fun to pick the favorite who will go off around even money, he’s clearly the best horse. If you can find +140 or better in a fixed odds market, that’s a great bet.
#6 River Thames enters off a third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, but ran his major qualifying race in Florida, where he lost by a neck to Derby winner Sovereignty. Florida has been the best circuit this season, and River Thames is the next most accomplished horse after Journalism. He’s had a nice break heading into this spot and should fire one of his best efforts.
#4 Heart of Honor is the true wildcard of the field. He has improved in each of his last three start while running second n each. He wants to come from off the pace which should help today and the distance is not an issue. I am hard pressed to find a route to victory for him, but he is a very logical horse to use underneath.
#8 Clever Again is the one speed horse I think is good enough to stick around. He has been very good in both starts this season, but did not face much and was very comfortable on the lead in both races. Today he will face pressure and step up in class. He’s capable, but there are a few unknowns.
Top 4: 2-6-4-8
The Bets: $5 Superfecta 2 / 4,6,8 / 4,6,8 / 4,6,8 – $25 Exacta 2/6 – $10 Trifecta 2/6/4,8
Turf Sprint Stakes, Pimlico, Race #9
While not one of the highlights of the card, I really like a horse here and wanted to write about it. #4 Witty is an interesting piece of this puzzle. He is 10-1 on the morning line because of his last six races, which do not fit with this group. However, three of those were on the dirt, two of them he was bothered at the gate, and the other was off a long layoff. Now you add top jockey Flavien Prat aboard for a horse who loves this track, one win and one second in two starts. He finished second in this race last year and has run four races that make him a short price against this group. I am hoping to get 8-1 or better.
#2 No Nay Hudson should get a beautiful setup here with plenty of pace in front of him. He has the most class in the field and should be sharp second off the layoff.
#5 Determined Kingdom lost as the favorite in the local prep first off the bench, but he was almost too bad to believe in that spot. His late 2024 races would certainly make him a player in this field, but he will need to deal with other horses who want the front.
#8 Mattingly offers a nice 8-1 price while jumping up in class. He is not fast enough to get the front, but did score from just off the pace in his last start at Gulfstream and showed the ability to close three races back. He’s a player at a price.
Top 4: 4-2-5-8
The Bet: $50 Win #4
Spot Bets:
Pimlico, Race #11 – $50 Win #5 (If we are on the turf)
Pimlico, Race #12 – $50 Win #3 (If we are on the turf)
