Tennis Best Bets for Monday, February 26
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This fantastic sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to be providing you with tennis best bets as often as possible. This week, the ATP and WTA Tours will be in Acapulco, Dubai, Santiago, Austin and San Diego. I’ll scan through all of the tournaments to find some winners, so make sure you check out my stuff over the next week. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. That said, I’ll be adding picks often. You can find those at the bottom of the story, where I’ll label them as “added plays.” I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 95-103 (+3.16 units)
Botic Van De Zandschulp vs. Adrian Mannarino – Dubai
Van De Zandschulp lost in a very odd way in Doha. He had a real shot at beating Gael Monfils in a second-set tiebreaker, but he ended up getting a point penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct there. But overall, Van De Zandschulp played some solid tennis in that straight-set defeat. And I like him to best Mannarino here. Van De Zandschulp is 3-1 in four career meetings with Mannarino, and one of those wins was a straight-set victory in Paris last October. That’s especially impressive considering Mannarino was playing in front of his hometown fans. Overall, I just think Van De Zandschulp’s big game is tough for Mannarino to handle. And Mannarino hasn’t looked great in his last two matches, so Van De Zandschulp is getting him at the right time.
Bet: Van De Zandschulp ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Denis Shapovalov vs. Andy Murray – Dubai
Murray has suffered some very disappointing losses recently, but I love his chances of beating Shapovalov. The reality is that these two players are both struggling for form, but Murray’s game is going to be a tough match for the Canadian. Shapovalov is extremely rusty at the moment, and he’s a player that bleeds unforced errors on a good day. So, Murray’s ability to put a lot of balls in play should be big here. I also just trust Murray a little more in key moments, even if he is having trouble getting over the finish line these days. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a plus-money play.
Bet: Murray ML (+115)
Added Plays
Alex Molcan ML (-120 – 1.5 units) vs. Federico Coria [Santiago]
Pedro Cachin +1.5 Sets (-140) vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta [Santiago]
Daniel Evans +1.5 Sets (-130 – 2 units) vs. Ben Shelton [Acapulco]
ATP Futures for Acapulco and Dubai
Holger Rune To Win Acapulco (+800 – 0.5 units): Rune is a player that is very good on clay courts, so I like his game on a slow hard court like this. Rune also shook up his team after an early exit in Rotterdam, bringing Patrick Mouratoglou back on and making him the head of his coaching staff. That means the end of his partnership with Boris Becker, but I like Mouratoglou as a fit with Rune. He has seen it all in his time as a coach, and Rune has the tools to do big things on tour. With that in mind, I’m expecting results from Rune rather soon. And I can see him playing well in Acapulco this week. He has a good draw and there’s nobody in the field that is clearly more talented than he is. This could be one to hedge later.
Casper Ruud To Win Acapulco (10-1 – 0.5 units): Ruud suffered a disappointing loss to Jordan Thompson in the final in Los Cabos on Saturday, but he played some great tennis in very similar conditions for most of the week. I just like his ability to hit heavy topspin shots from the baseline. That is a very valuable shot when it’s hard to hit through opponents. Ruud is also capable of getting hot as a server. With that in mind, I’m taking a shot on him to win this event. Like Rune, I’m not sure I love him to actually win. But I think one of the two players will get to the final, making for a good hedging opportunity.
Tallon Griekspoor To Win Quarter 3 in Dubai (+600 – 0.25 units): I like the value on Griekspoor to make a little run this week. I just have a hard time picturing him losing his opening-round match against Abdullah Shelbayh. Then, Griekspoor would face Alexander Bublik or Tomas Machac in the second round. With his ability to hold serve and play a mistake-free baseline game, I like his chances there. He’d then be one win away from cashing at these odds, and it’s not like the final opponent would be somebody unbeatable. The most dangerous players he’d face in the quarterfinals are Karen Khachanov or Jiri Lehecka. Both are beatable. And it’s not like Griekspoor isn’t playing well right now. He went to the semifinals in Rotterdam a few weeks ago and he lost to Jannik Sinner there. There’s no shame in that.
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