Miami open preview and tennis best bets for Friday, March 29
The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next few days. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women. With that in mind, we’ll have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. That continues with picks for Friday, March 29th. Keep reading for some of my favorite plays of the day, but make sure you check the Pro Picks page for more. I like to see how the odds move throughout the day and I tend to add a few picks each day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Results: 173-190 (+13.77 units)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner has won four matches in a row against Medvedev. But the Russian really had Sinner on the ropes in the Australian Open final. Medvedev raced out to a two-set lead in that match, but he completely ran out of steam. Medvedev had played a bunch of marathon matches before that meeting with Sinner, including back-to-back matches that lasted four hours against Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev. Both of those matches were extremely physical, so Medvedev had nothing left. But he did show that he had a game plan to rattle Sinner early in the match, and I expect him to go back to it here.
Medvedev is normally a player that relies solely on defense, but he put his front foot forward and tried to be the aggressor in those first two sets. So, I’d expect Medvedev to try to end rallies earlier by going for winners, and I can also see him approaching the net a little. That’s not to say that Medvedev will completely get away from grinding from the baseline. But he can do a better job of mixing it up.
These conditions also suit Medvedev a little better. Sinner’s powerful baseline game isn’t quite as dangerous in the heat and humidity. And Sinner has also had some conditioning issues in the past. The same can’t be said for Medvedev, who is the most fit player on tour.
I’m not actually going to play this myself, as I have Medvedev to win the tournament at +650. But I thought long and hard about this match when looking at the futures market and I feel good about Medvedev winning it. And I would definitely be on it at this price if I didn’t have the future.
Bet: Medvedev ML (+180)
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Alexander Zverev
Not only is Zverev 7-1 in eight career meetings with Dimitrov, but he has won seven in a row. So, Dimitrov hasn’t beaten Zverev since 2014. And that was when Zverev was just a teenager. This is just a matchup that has given Dimitrov a lot of trouble, and I’m not sure anything is changing here. I know Dimitrov is coming off an impressive win over Carlos Alcaraz, but that was the Bulgarian playing A+ tennis against a guy that was really off his game. And I have a hard time believing Dimitrov will find that level again.
The reality here is that Zverev might just have a little too big of a game for Dimitrov. Zverev is one of the most dominant servers on tour, and Dimitrov hasn’t had an answer for it in the past. If he’s getting the serve back in play, it’s usually just a block back for an easy serve-plus-one. And Zverev has used his length well in the return game to get to Dimitrov’s serve. Also, Zverev’s two-handed backhand is masterful, so he gets the better of Dimitrov in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. That means that Dimitrov’s best chance here will be attacking the Zverev forehand. But that thing was a serious weapon in Zverev’s win over Karen Khachanov two rounds ago. And it held up nicely against Fabian Marozsan.
It would just take a very bad performance from Zverev for Dimitrov to find a way here. I’d rather lean on the history between these two, as I think it paints a good picture of this matchup.
Bet: Zverev ML (-149 – 2 units)
Thursday’s Plays
Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-150 – 1.5 units) vs. Jannik Sinner
PARLAY: Elena Rybakina ML vs. Victoria Azarenka + Danielle Collins ML vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova (+116 – 1.5 units)
