Miami open preview and tennis best bets for Thursday, March 21
The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next two weeks. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women. With that in mind, we’ll have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. That continues with picks for Thursday, March 21st. Keep reading for some of my favorite plays of the day, but make sure you check the Pro Picks page for more. I like to see how the odds move throughout the day and I tend to add a few picks each day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2023 Results: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Results: 155-177 (+5.28 units)
Dan Evans vs. Lorenzo Sonego
I’m a bit of an idiot and thought this match was on Wednesday, but I’m still firing it up on Thursday! Evans has been a disaster lately, as he has lost three matches in a row and nine of his last 11. And one of those losses happened to come against Sonego at the Australian Open. But Sonego is also struggling right now, as he has lost five of his last seven matches. And Sonego is a player that can’t afford to be missing the mark. He plays an aggressive power game, hitting very hard and with a lot of top spin. That’s obviously a very effective way to play, but it can backfire when you’re not consistently finding the court.
If you’re asking me which of these players has more in their tool kit to dig deep and get back in the win column, the answer is easily Evans. The Brit might be 0-3 in this matchup, but he’s going to utilize his slice to ask as any many questions of Sonego as possible.
Evans has also struggled more with his serve than anything else this season. But Sonego’s break percentage is a nightmarish 10.8% this season. So, this is the perfect opponent for Evans to snap out of his funk and build some confidence.
Bet: Evans ML (+120 … added a second unit at +145)
Harold Mayot vs. Daniel Altmaier
Mayot is probably a little fortunate to be in the main draw. There was no guarantee he was going to beat Arthur Cazaux in qualifying. But Cazaux ended up fainting on the court and didn’t finish the match. Then Mayot ended up earning a straight-set win over David Goffin to get to the main draw. Mayot is now looking really enticing against Daniel Altmaier. The German comes into this match after having lost six of his last seven matches. And he did not play very well on clay, which is his preferred surface.
Altmaier just doesn’t look very comfortable from the baseline right now, and that’s a problem against Mayot. The Frenchman is capable of playing consistent tennis along the baseline, especially on hard courts. He’s going to have no problem keeping rallies alive, and he also has the ability to end points quickly when dialing up the aggression. On top of that, Mayot can be pretty tricky to return against. Mayot isn’t serving very well at the ATP level this season, but he’s holding at 85.2% in Challengers. And the reality is that Altmaier is playing at that level right now. There’s just no reason to back Altmaier, even though he’s ranked higher.
Bet: Mayot ML (+130 – 1.5 units)
Diana Shnaider vs. Madison Keys
This is a match in which it’s hard to ignore recent form. Shnaider has won five of her last six matches coming into this one, and she’s 11-5 in WTA and ITF matches this year. That’s a lot of match play and a lot of winning, while Keys hasn’t been on the court very much. Keys has played just two matches since October and one of those was an ugly straight-set loss to Yulia Putintseva in Indian Wells. I have no doubts about Keys eventually playing at a top-25 level again, as she still possesses elite weaponry with the serve and power from the baseline. But her rally tolerance isn’t there right now and she’s just lacking in sharpness. So, Shnaider should be able to get the better of her — even with this match being in Keys’ home state.
Bet: Shnaider ML (+100)
Added Plays
Kei Nishikori ML (+140) vs. Sebastian Ofner – Nishikori hasn’t played an ATP-level match since last summer, but he’s completely healthy right now. That’s all I need to know in order to back him. Ofner has just been playing some horrible tennis lately, and he hit rock bottom in a loss in his first match at the Phoenix Challenger last week. Ofner continues to play aggressive tennis, but he he’s not finding the court enough to make that effective. So, I like the idea of backing Nishikori against him. Nishikori’s topspin-heavy forehand, combined with a flat, powerful backhand, make him tough in these conditions.
Daria Saville ML (-130 – 1.5 units) vs. Dayana Yastremska
Facundo Diaz Acosta ML (+162 – 1.5 units) vs. Alexei Popyrin
Emilio Nava (+120) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut
Katerina Siniakova +1.5 Sets (-142 – 1.5 units) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Katerina Siniakova ML (175 – 0.5 units) vs. Qinwen Zheng
Peyton Stearns +3.5 Games (-112 – 2 units) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Wednesday’s Plays
Angelique Kerber ML (+130) vs. Sloane Stephens
Matteo Arnaldi ML (+110 – 1.5 units) vs. Arthur Fils
Katy Volynets ML (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Sofia Kenin
