Tennis Best Bets for Thursday, February 29
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This fantastic sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to be providing you with tennis best bets as often as possible. This week, the ATP and WTA Tours are in Acapulco, Dubai, Santiago, Austin and San Diego. I’ll scan through all of the tournaments to find some winners, so make sure you check out my stuff over the next week. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. That said, I’ll be adding picks often. You can find those at the bottom of the story, where I’ll label them as “added plays.” I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page. So, keep reading for my tennis picks and predictions for Thursday, February 29.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 100-106 (+6.00 units)
Sebastian Korda vs. Andrey Rublev – Dubai
Korda is coming off a dominant 6-1, 6-0 win over Botic van de Zandschulp. The American needed only 42 minutes to get the job done there. He has been on cruise control with his serve in this tournament. That’s nice to see for a player that can occasionally struggle in that regard. Overall, Korda is every bit as talented as some of the top players in the men’s game. However, he has had trouble staying healthy and his consistency isn’t quite there. But when Korda is playing the way he is playing in Dubai, he’s an extremely tough out. That said, I think Rublev is on upset watch here.
For as good as Rublev is, he hasn’t had much success since making a quarter-final run at the Australian Open. Of course, Rublev did earn a three-set win over Korda at that event. But that was when Korda was still struggling for form, and the match was actually a bit closer than the score indicates. The second set went to a tiebreaker, so it could have gone either way. And the third set also featured some good tennis. Well, now that Korda is really starting to find his groove again, I think he can put a serious scare in Rublev. The key here is that Rublev isn’t as good of a server as other top-10 players. That means he gives his opponents some chances to break, and Korda has been sharp in the return game here.
I just don’t see many reasons not to take Korda as one of my tennis best bets today. I’m playing him to win a set, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. I think there’s a real chance he advances.
Bet: Korda +1.5 Sets (-158) & Korda ML (+182 – 0.5 units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alex De Minaur – Acapulco
These two players feel like they’re heading in opposite directions. Tsitsipas famously fell out of the top 10 recently, which means there aren’t any players with one-handed backhands in that group. And overall, players know that they can beat him if he isn’t serving lights out. His backhand is still a huge problem, so players will attack it relentlessly. I expect De Minaur to do that as much as possible here. De Minaur has also taken his serve to another level. He’s holding at 87.0% to start the 2024 season, which is outrageously high for a player that has never been reliable with the ball on his racquet. If this continues, De Minaur will be one of the best players on tour for years to come. He’s already an elite defender and a relentless returner.
De Minaur also has an edge to him that Tsitsipas lacks. At some point in this match, that could manifest itself. De Minaur won’t give him anything easy, and that could get to Tsitsipas. Overall, I just like these odds quite a bit. I think De Minaur should be the favorite.
Bet: De Minaur ML (-105 – 2 units)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Jaume Munar ML (vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas) & Nicolas Jarry ML (vs. Corentin Moutet) at -123 (2 units)
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