Tennis Best Bets for Wednesday, April 17th
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. This week, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart. I’ll scan through all of the tournaments to find some winners, so make sure you check out my stuff this week.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page. So, keep reading for my tennis picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 17th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 215-234 (+15.00 units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Ons Jabeur – Stuttgart
It’s only a matter of time before Jabeur finds her form again, but she’s a player to fade until she does. The world No. 9 has lost each of her last five matches, and she’s just 2-6 since the start of 2024. Jabeur’s hold percentage is down at 60.0% this year. That number was up at 67.5% or higher in each of the last four years. Jabeur’s break percentage is also 29.1%, despite being at least 38.7% in each of the last four years. She’s just not serving or returning at a high enough level to beat solid opponents, and she has lost a bit of the magic that made her such a good baseline player. With that in mind, I’m rolling with Alexandrova to beat her. Alexandrova is actually 5-2 in the seven full matches these two have played. And Alexandrova is also just 12-9 on the season, so these two are just heading in opposite directions.
Bet: Alexandrova ML (-125)
Alejandro Moro Canas vs. Taylor Fritz – Munich
Alex Michelsen vs. Cristian Garin – Munich
Moro Canas was able to earn a win over Dominic Thiem last match, but Fritz will be a whole different beast. Sure, the American didn’t look great in a loss to Lorenzo Musetti in Monte Carlo. But the Italian played a tremendous match there. And Fritz should be able to turn things around rather quickly. The American is actually coming off a good clay-court season in 2023, and he has drastically improved on the surface over the years. And overall, Fritz should have too much firepower for Moro Canas. Fritz has the power to hit through the slow conditions, and his serve is just a lot better than his opponent’s. That should allow him to win rather comfortably here, which is why I’m throwing him into a two-leg moneyline parlay.
For the second leg, I’m taking Garin to handle his business against Michelsen. That has been an up-and-down year for Garin, but he comes into this match after having won six of his last eight matches on clay. And he’s a clay-court specialist, so it’s nice to see him regaining his confidence. Garin is a ridiculous 85-55 in clay matches at the ATP level, so it’s very difficult to beat him when he’s in form on the dirt. That makes it hard not to like him to beat Michelsen, who has played three matches on clay over the last two weeks. And those are the only three ATP-level matches he has played on the dirt in his career. Michelsen will have a pretty serious edge in power here. But that’s about it. And Garin will know how to redirect that pace to sculpt the points the way he wants.
PARLAY: Fritz ML/Garin ML (-132 – 1.5 units)
Rafael Nadal vs. Alex De Minaur – Barcelona
I know Nadal is coming off a straight-set win, but that was against Flavio Cobolli. This meeting with De Minaur will be a heck of a lot tougher. De Minaur is one of the most physical players on tour, as he gets everything back in play and forces you to come up with something extra in order to beat him. Well, Nadal hasn’t been tested like this in quite some time. So, I’m backing the Australian. And I’m a little worried about what a lengthy match would mean for Nadal, so hopefully this isn’t a very tight three setter.
Nadal also got himself into some trouble with his serve against Cobolli. If he does that against De Minaur, it’ll be curtains for the greatest clay-court player of all time. De Minaur has the second-highest break percentage (29.0%) on tour over the last 52 weeks.
Bet: De Minaur ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ML (+110 – 1.5 units) vs. Nicolas Mejia [Acapulco Challenger]
