Wimbledon predictions and best bets for Day 4 – July 3rd:
There’s nothing better than grass-court tennis at the All England Club, so we’re excited about Wimbledon over here at VSiN. Throughout the tournament, I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets. That continues with the action on Thursday, July 3rd, so keep reading for my Day 4 Wimbledon picks.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 825-801-1 (+34.86 units)
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Caroline Dolehide
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Clara Tauson
When Krejcikova pulled out of Eastbourne after having won her first two matches, there was a thought that the defending Wimbledon champion was feeling good about her game and wanted to preserve herself for her title defense. Well, Krejcikova then won her first match at the All England Club, fighting back to earn a 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 victory over Alexandra Eala. In the final two sets of that match, the Czech star looked the part of a two-time Grand Slam champion, and I now love her chances of beating Dolehide on the grass. Krejcikova just has so much variety to her game, while Dolehide is really out there hoping to overpower her opponents. That likely won’t be enough for the American to win this one.
In order to get a better price on Krejcikova, I’m throwing her into a two-legger with Kalinskaya to win a set against Tauson. This isn’t going to be an easy match. Tauson is 25-13 since the start of the 2025 season, has a title to her name and has all the power you can ask for from the baseline. However, she is just 4-7 on this surface, and movement can be a problem for her. So, if Kalinskaya is striking the ball cleanly, she should find a way on the board. And that’s generally something she can be trusted to do. When healthy, Kalinskaya is a player that hits big, heavy shots deep into the court. Her forehand is also one of the biggest weapons in the women’s game.
PARLAY: Krejcikova ML & Kalinskaya +1.5 Sets (-109)
Marton Fucsovics vs. Gael Monfils
I had Monfils to cover a 4.5-game spread against Ugo Humbert last round, and the 38-year-old was able to emerge with an outright win in a match that lasted four hours. It was an awesome performance from a player that always plays his best tennis on big stages, and you never know how many matches like that he has left in him. So, we have to enjoy them while we can. The problem heading into Round 2 is that Monfils is pushing 40 years old, and that opening-round match had to have taken a physical toll on him. In fact, he was visibly laboring at certain points in the match. That said, Fucsovics really should be able to finish the veteran off here.
While Fucsovics isn’t a household name, he’s a good all-around player that enjoys playing on grass. He’s also 20-10 on the season when combining ATP and Challenger matches.
Fucsovics also happens to be a tough matchup for Monfils, as he has been in a zone as a returner this year. His break percentage is up at 28.3%. And while that’s far from sustainable, the better returner is going to win this match. Both of these guys should hold relatively easily more often than not, but somebody is going to come up with the goods as a returner a few times. That’s more likely to be Fucsovics.
Fucsovics is also in tremendous shape, so he’d likely outlast Monfils if this is another lengthy battle. He also happened to win the last time they played, which was on outdoor clay last year.
Bet: Fucsovics ML (-106 – 1.5 units)
Marin Cilic vs. Jack Draper
When I did the pre-Wimbledon Beating The Book podcast with Gill Alexander and Drew Dinsick, I noted that I’m interested in backing Cilic in some capacity here — and even said I’d sprinkle some moneyline. Well, I’m playing Cilic to take a set off the home favorite, and I’m throwing a little pizza money on the moneyline to stick to my word.
The reality is that there’s not a lot of recent data that suggests Cilic can play with Draper. The 36-year-old is a former Grand Slam champion, but that US Open title came 11 years ago. And over the last few years, Cilic has battled injuries and mostly playing Challenger-level events. However, Cilic did win a grass-court challenger in Nottingham two weeks ago, and he looked good in his straight-set win over Raphael Collignon in the first round here.
When Cilic is serving well, he’s just a very difficult player to break. And I just don’t think you can rule out the possibility of him serving his way to a few tiebreakers in this match. From there, the big Croatian will be playing with house money against a guy that might be under more pressure than anybody in this tournament.
We have also seen Draper have some issues with servers that can consistently hit their spots, as it puts him under pressure to do the same. One match that came to mind was a serve-dominant battle against Jakub Mensik in Miami, where Draper lost after having won Indian Wells the week before.
I can just see this being a match that sneaks up on some people and ends up being competitive. However, I will note that I’d look to take Cilic to win a set, instead of +2.5 sets. In the event he has to retire at some point late in a close match, you’ll want to make sure you don’t lose due to quirky house rules.
Bet: Cilic +2.5 Sets (-122) & Cilic ML (+750 – 0.10 units)
Corentin Moutet vs. Grigor Dimitrov
I’m not sure how Moutet is available at nearly 2-1 odds, but I’ll gladly take the bait. Moutet is 8-2 since the start of this grass-court season, and he even earned a win over Taylor Fritz, the King of Grass, in a tight three-set match at Queen’s Club. And really, there’s nothing fluky about Moutet’s recent performances. Grass-court tennis rewards players that play with variety, and TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations suggest the Frenchman is doing that at an absurd level. They have Moutet playing with “Shot Variation” on 41% of his shots — and 44% on grass. The tour-average player utilizes slice groundstrokes, short slices, dropshots, angled shots and shots at the net only 19% of the time. That said, Moutet always keeps opponents on their toes.
This is also the last player Dimitrov wants to see right now. The Bulgarian has retired from four matches this year, and injuries have forced him out of action somewhat frequently. Well, if Moutet is moving him around, forcing him to change directions and keeping him off balance, that’s not going to work out well.
Moutet is also 2-0 against Dimitrov in their brief head-to-head history, and one of the wins for the Frenchman was a five-set win at this very tournament. He knows he can win this match, and I believe he will.
Bet: Moutet ML (+205)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
