In a chaotic NFL Week 5, the last two unbeaten teams were vanquished. Plus a raised-from-the-dead comeback took a big chunk out of the Circa Survivor field as 62 percent of the entries didn’t make it through to Week 6.
But we have one more game tonight: Chiefs (-3.5) at Jaguars (8:15 ET, ESPN).
Zach Cohen has our official betting preview:
Kansas City is a little better offensively; Jacksonville is a little better defensively. With these teams having very similar statistical profiles, why not take the points with the home team — and the team with a little more to prove?
Steve Makinen is wary of backing the Chiefs on the road, but he still has a play for you:
With 75% of the handle at DraftKings on the Over, the magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. I don’t think either of these teams wants a shootout. Bet: Under 46.5
Adam Burke has a player prop for your consideration.
The Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants have a little more faith in the Chiefs than my guys. Here is how they played the game:
Cris Zeniuk: Jaguars (+3)
Weston Stradtman: Chiefs (-3)
Matt Ste. Marie: Chiefs (-3)
Frank Betti / Anthony Curtis: Chiefs (-3)
Randy Mckay: Chiefs (-3)
Jeff Whitelaw: Chiefs (-3)
Scott Pritchard: Chiefs (-3)
Jim Feist: OVER (46)
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
Injury update: KC announced on Sunday that WR Xavier Worthy is now questionable with shoulder and ankle injuries. >>Injury report.
MNF resources
>Opta AI prop projections. FYI: Trevor Lawrence is projected with 246.79 passing yards, 34.29 Over the DraftKings line of 212.5.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers should check our NFL picks page to see what hosts and guests did with MNF games.
NFL review/preview
Dave Tuley recaps Sunday’s NFL results:
The Patriots (closed +7.5 road underdogs) upset Bills 23-20 (stayed Under betting total of 49 points) to wrap up a wild Sunday in NFL Week 5. On the day, dogs led 7-5 SU and ATS; The other outright upsets: TEN +7.5 at AZ, TB +3.5 at SEA, WAS +3 at LAC, DEN +3.5 at PHI, CAR +1 vs. MIA and DAL closed +1.5 at NYJ. Road teams led 8-3 SU and ATS with 1 neutral-site game; Overs 7-5.
Favorites still lead 49-25-1 SU this season with 2 pick’ems, but dipped to 38-37 ATS (50.7%); home teams dipped to 40-33-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games (Brazil/Ireland/England) while road teams took 38-36 ATS lead; Overs improve slim lead to 40-37.
Moving on to Week 6, VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke will have his weekly analysis of the line moves based on results and injuries here later this morning.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
About that Cardinals game
The theme of Circa Survivor Week 5: Misery loves company.
The week started with 12,404 entries and ended with 4,669. Just when everyone thought the Rams’ OT loss on TNF couldn’t be topped, along came the Cardinals, backed by 3,152 entries.
I’m sure Gill Alexander will do a masterful job of describing the painful meltdown of his Survivor pick on today’s A Numbers Game (10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET). But here are the video lowlights, including a fourth-quarter touchdown that wasn’t followed by an interception that turned into a touchdown for the previously winless Titans.
>Circa Grandissimo: We’re down to 16 entries playing for the winner-take-all $6.9 million prize. The Cardinals eliminated 20 and the Bills cost 4.
>Circa Million: The top 5 consensus picks went 2-3 to “improve” to 7-18 (28%) on the season, according to Tuley.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Las Vegas pro bettor Frank Carulli went 3-3-1 and leads Fox Sports betting analyst Chris Fallica by one point. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: Six contestants are already in the clubhouse with perfect records and 14 more are pending with MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
NLDS Best Bets
Underdogs swept 2-0 Sunday in AL divisional series Game 2s with the Blue Jays routing the Yankees 13-7 as +133 home dogs (flew Over betting total of 8 runs) and the Mariners beating Tigers/Tarik Skubal 3-2 as +128 home dogs (stayed Under low total of 5.5). Underdogs lead 4-2 so far in the divisional series round; home teams also 4-2; Overs lead 4-2; overall in the playoffs, favorites still lead 11-6 while home teams improve to also lead 11-6 with 2 home dogs winning Sunday; Unders lead 9-7-1.
Back to the NLDS tonight: Dodgers at Phillies (6:08 ET) and Cubs at Brewers (9:08 ET).
Greg Peterson has picks for both games today
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
Note from VSiN By The Books host Jensen Lewis: Over the last 3 years, 11 of 12 Game 1 winners have won their LDS series.
MLB resources
Quick Hits
College Football: Where does the time go? Adam Burke updates his power ratings ahead of Week 7 and has some games that stand out. He also calls out some early line moves, including Oregon-Indiana.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted 32 team previews on our NHL page. Plus he answers the question: Is betting big favorites profitable? The season starts tomorrow.
NBA: Heads-up — The VSiN NBA Betting Guide will be published on Tuesday.
RIP: Jeff Siegel, a frequent VSiN guest whose horse racing picks appeared on VSiN.com through our partnership with 1/ST BET, died Saturday of cancer at the age 74.
