One of the hot betting storylines for Week 7 of the college football season: Will former Heisman Trophy favorite John Mateer return for Oklahoma’s game against Texas just three weeks after hand surgery?
The answer is yes. He is now listed as probable. The more difficult question is whether his return will change the fortunes of the Red River Rivalry (3:30 ET, ABC).
Zach Cohen writes our official preview:
Before injuring his thumb against the Auburn Tigers, Mateer had thrown for 1,215 yards with six touchdowns and three picks on the season. He also had 190 rushing yards and another five scores on the ground. The dual-threat quarterback was the Heisman Trophy favorite when he went down, so there’s naturally plenty of excitement with him back on the field. However, it does feel like things are getting a little out of hand.
Before it was clear that Mateer was returning, the Longhorns were 2.5-point favorites in this game. There were also oddsmakers that suggested Texas would move to -5.5 if Mateer was completely ruled out. Well, all of a sudden, Oklahoma (-1) is favored to beat Texas in Dallas, where the Longhorns should still have a small edge in crowd support. I’m not sure that makes much sense.
Matt Youmans included Oklahoma-Texas in his Best Bets column:
Mateer will likely play, yet how effective he can be is a mystery. The Sooners will be in trouble if backup Michael Hawkins is forced to play much. This appears to be a rare spot when backing Texas’ less-than-dynamic duo of coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning is an appealing option. What’s most obvious is both defenses are elite and the quarterbacks will have problems putting points on the board. Best Bets: Texas +1 and Under 45 (half-unit each)
Zach did previews of the other big games today:
>Ohio State vs. Illinois, Noon ET, Fox
>Alabama vs. Missouri, Noon ET, ABC
>Indiana vs. Oregon, 3:30 ET, CBS
>>Zach’s other plays for the weekend.
Other Best Bets columns:
Josh Appelbaum’s CFB Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
The Week 6 selections for the Circa Friday Football Invitational were announced by Matt last night (7-10 ET), so let’s see what they did with the Oklahoma-Texas game:
Chris Piper: Oklahoma (-1)
Chris Fallica: Texas (+1)
Chris Macero: UNDER (45)
>>Get all 175 picks from 25 handicappers.
More CFB resources
>CFB Week 7 Hub with stories and resources.
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to all the plays from hosts and guests on the CFB Picks page.
MLB Playoffs: 1 last spot
The last spot in the league championships will be decided tonight as the Cubs face the Brewers in Milwaukee (8:08 ET, TBS).
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
NFL: Purdy ruled out
News you can use on the quarterback front:
49ers: Brock Purdy (toe) has been ruled out vs. the Bucs (-3). Mac Jones (oblique, knee) is likely to start, but is listed as questionable. Adrian Martinez would be the next next-man-up.
Ravens: Lamar Jackson (hamstring) has been ruled out vs. the Rams (-7.5 at Circa).
Cardinals: Kyler Murray practiced Friday, but is still listed as questionable vs. the Colts (-7).
Bengals: Joe Flacco is slated to start vs. the Packers (-14.5), but may not have WR Ja’Marr Chase, who was listed as questionable with an illness.
I checked our Opta AI player prop projections for the biggest differences between the DraftKings line and the AI projection:
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Under 265.5 passing yards at DK (Opta AI at -39.34)
Jacory Crowsky-Merritt, Commanders: Under 68.5 rushing yards (-27.66)
Isaiah Bond, Browns: Over 29.5 receiving yards (+21.2)
FYI: The projections will adjust up to game time based on injuries and line moves.
Everything we post on NFL Week 6 will be here.
Quick Hits
NBA: The VSiN NBA Betting Guide is ready for download.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day. Steve Makinen makes daily power ratings that generate an estimated score for every game that is displayed on our NHL matchups page.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon offers his picks for today’s Keeneland card. Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman discuss the Breeders’ Cup Classic and have Best Bets for weekend racing at Keeneland and Santa Anita on the VSiN At The Track podcast. >>Listen now.
Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Use the code VSiN250 to get your $250 sign-up bonus.
UFC: Dave Ross and Rob Moreno handicap today’s card in Rio de Janeiro on the First Strike podcast. >Watch. Listen. Rob has a few more details in his VSiN.com story. Lou Finocchiaro posted his plays.
