🧠 ‘Adapt or die’
That’s Steve Makinen’s blunt takeaway after the first weekend of March Madness.
For years, March betting was built on trends:
👉 Underdogs
👉 Cinderella runs
👉 Historical angles
But Makinen separates the game into two lenses:
1) Predictive ratings (what will happen)
→ Power ratings, efficiency, market-based numbers
2) Historical trends (what has happened)
→ Upset systems, seed trends, past tournament patterns
What we learned:
👉 The predictive side is winning
👉 The trend-based approach is breaking down
📊 Proof from the first weekend
Makinen’s predictive ratings were dialed in:
👉 7 of top 8 power-rated teams reached Sweet 16
👉 10 of top 12 in bettor-driven ratings still alive
Meanwhile…
👉 Classic upset angles and dog trends? Mostly busted
The shift:
The tournament is becoming more efficient and top-heavy.
🎯 Where the edge still is
Steve’s edge isn’t just ratings — it’s knowing which trends still matter:
🔥 Upset vulnerability profiles worked (BYU, UNC out early)
📈 Final Four archetypes held (5 of top 6 still alive)
🏆 True title contenders separated early
Bottom line:
👉 Not all trends are dead
👉 But they must be paired with predictive data
👉 See Makinen’s full Sweet 16 ratings & new Best Bets →
For years, March betting was built on trends:
👉 Underdogs
👉 Cinderella runs
👉 Historical angles
But Makinen separates the game into two lenses:
1) Predictive ratings (what will happen)
→ Power ratings, efficiency, market-based numbers
2) Historical trends (what has happened)
→ Upset systems, seed trends, past tournament patterns
What we learned:
👉 The predictive side is winning
👉 The trend-based approach is breaking down
📊 Proof from the first weekend
Makinen’s predictive ratings were dialed in:
👉 7 of top 8 power-rated teams reached Sweet 16
👉 10 of top 12 in bettor-driven ratings still alive
Meanwhile…
👉 Classic upset angles and dog trends? Mostly busted
The shift:
The tournament is becoming more efficient and top-heavy.
🎯 Where the edge still is
Steve’s edge isn’t just ratings — it’s knowing which trends still matter:
🔥 Upset vulnerability profiles worked (BYU, UNC out early)
📈 Final Four archetypes held (5 of top 6 still alive)
🏆 True title contenders separated early
Bottom line:
👉 Not all trends are dead
👉 But they must be paired with predictive data
👉 See Makinen’s full Sweet 16 ratings & new Best Bets →
🏀 More from the Sweet 16 board
The data, the market and the picks — here’s what else we’re tracking.
📉 Sharp Money Report:
👉 Josh Appelbaum’s Sweet 16 Sharp Report →
🎯 More action today:
👉 Greg Peterson’s NIT plays →
📚 Full coverage:
👉 NCAA Tournament Hub →
📉 Sharp Money Report:
👉 Josh Appelbaum’s Sweet 16 Sharp Report →
🎯 More action today:
👉 Greg Peterson’s NIT plays →
📚 Full coverage:
👉 NCAA Tournament Hub →
🏆 Contest update: Sweet 16 = pressure time
The easy points are gone — now every pick can swing the leaderboard.
📊 VSiN March Betting Challenge, sponsored by ProphetX & EdgeBoost
👉 Dylan Clark, a VSiN Pro subscriber, leads (23-6-1) and wins first-half prize — $1,500 in an EdgeBoost account.
View leaderboard →
👉 Enter now for a chance at $1,000 second-half prize.
Contest details →
🎯 Circa College Hoops Challenge
👉 Paul Stone leads (21 pts)
See standings →
Next up for both contests:
👉 Make 5 picks for Round of 16
📊 VSiN March Betting Challenge, sponsored by ProphetX & EdgeBoost
👉 Dylan Clark, a VSiN Pro subscriber, leads (23-6-1) and wins first-half prize — $1,500 in an EdgeBoost account.
View leaderboard →
👉 Enter now for a chance at $1,000 second-half prize.
Contest details →
🎯 Circa College Hoops Challenge
👉 Paul Stone leads (21 pts)
See standings →
Next up for both contests:
👉 Make 5 picks for Round of 16
⚾ MLB Opening Day is one sleep away
The season starts Wednesday — and early edges are on the board.
👉 Adam Burke’s 30-team breakdown →
🔥 Astros vs Yankees headline Opening Night
🎯 Early angles from Adam:
👉 First 5 innings markets softer early
👉 Be cautious laying big favorites
👉 Adam Burke’s 30-team breakdown →
🔥 Astros vs Yankees headline Opening Night
🎯 Early angles from Adam:
👉 First 5 innings markets softer early
👉 Be cautious laying big favorites
🏀 Zach Cohen’s NBA Report
Lakers streak ends: Of course it did.
After weeks of fading the Lakers, I finally backed them — and Los Angeles promptly lost, falling short of a 10-game win streak against a Detroit team missing Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart.
What’s next:
👉 Pacers
👉 Nets
👉 Wizards
The read: A new winning streak could be coming with that soft schedule.
🏀 Tuesday night hoops
The NBA oddly isn’t taking full advantage of a night with zero March Madness games — just four matchups on the slate.
Still worth watching:
👉 Pelicans vs Knicks
👉 Magic vs Cavaliers
👉 Nuggets vs Suns (NBC/Peacock doubleheader)
Betting takeaway:
👉 Late-season NBA = schedule + motivation > power ratings
👉 Find NBA Best Bets from Zach →
After weeks of fading the Lakers, I finally backed them — and Los Angeles promptly lost, falling short of a 10-game win streak against a Detroit team missing Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart.
What’s next:
👉 Pacers
👉 Nets
👉 Wizards
The read: A new winning streak could be coming with that soft schedule.
🏀 Tuesday night hoops
The NBA oddly isn’t taking full advantage of a night with zero March Madness games — just four matchups on the slate.
Still worth watching:
👉 Pelicans vs Knicks
👉 Magic vs Cavaliers
👉 Nuggets vs Suns (NBC/Peacock doubleheader)
Betting takeaway:
👉 Late-season NBA = schedule + motivation > power ratings
👉 Find NBA Best Bets from Zach →
🎉 Around VSiN
A couple of big life updates from the VSiN crew:
👶 Josh Appelbaum welcomed a new baby — congrats to the growing family!
💍 Dustin Swedelson, host of Cashing Out, is engaged.
(Possibly to get ahead of having to shave his head if Purdue makes the Final Four.)
Bottom line:
👉 Big week on and off the board
👶 Josh Appelbaum welcomed a new baby — congrats to the growing family!
💍 Dustin Swedelson, host of Cashing Out, is engaged.
(Possibly to get ahead of having to shave his head if Purdue makes the Final Four.)
Bottom line:
👉 Big week on and off the board
