Week 1 betting storylines: Unders, no carnage in Circa Survivor and one crazy comeback on Sunday Night Football.
But first VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen previews tonight’s Vikings-Bears matchup (8:15, ABC/ESPN).
The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites back in May, but now they are 1.5-point underdogs in coach Ben Johnson’s debut with the Total at 43.5.
Full disclosure, based on his futures wagers: Zach was already high on the Vikings in J.J. McCarthy’s first season.
I feel like the presence of a young quarterback is giving us a huge discount on one of the best teams in football. McCarthy will have to play well in order for Minnesota to win games this year, but this is still a roster that is loaded on both sides of the ball. And a good argument can be made that the Vikings have the best offensive and defensive coaches in the league. So, while McCarthy is unproven, I’ll take what Minnesota has to offer against another unproven squad.
>>More analysis and Best Bets from Zach.
Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report contains these nuggets:
>Divisional home underdogs are 18-10-2 SU and 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since ’09 (Win: +17.4 units, ROI: 58%)
>Home underdogs on MNF are on a run of 14-17 SU and 17-13-1 ATS (56.7%) dating to September 2021.
>The last 29 of these games have seen Under the total go 21-6-2 (77.8%) as well, games producing just 39.1 PPG.
Given all the data, it’s not surprising Steve has a Best Bet for this one.
Josh Appelbaum‘s NFL Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
More MNF resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
NFL rewind / fast forward
In case you turned it off early: The Bills (+1.5) scored 16 points in the last four minutes to beat the Ravens 41-40 in the Sunday finale.
Las Vegas bettor Sean “No Chop” Perry was definitely counting his $381,818.20 from Circa too soon.
From Dave Tuley: Favorites went 10-2 SU Sunday, but just 7-5 ATS with 1 pick-’em (TB-ATL); home teams led 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS; Unders still dominated 11-2.
The only Overs were the lowest Total on the board (Jets-Steelers 37.5) and the highest (Ravens-Bills 51.5). Go figure.
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke takes a look at the Week 2 early line moves.
Contest Corner
The Broncos made 38 percent of the Circa Survivor field sweat it out until the last minute before clinching a 20-12 victory over the Titans.
Only 518 entries were eliminated heading into MNF, leaving 18,200.
All 69 Circa Grandissimo entries advanced.
The Circa Million top 5 consensus picks went 0-5.
In the Circa Friday Football Invitational, Chuck Edel and the team of Frank Betti and Anthony Curtis are atop the standings after Week 1 with 5-2 records.
In the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest, we had six contestants with perfect 7-0 records heading into MNF with a few more pending MNF.
>>See our contest hub for picks and standings.
If you missed the Average Joe sign-up deadline, good news. You can sign up at any point in the season for a chance to win weekly prizes (up to $1,000) and quarterly prizes (trips to Las Vegas). Who knows? Maybe you can make up ground and win the grand prize: A spot in next year’s Friday Invitational.
Quick Hits
College Football: Adam Burke looks at some of the more intriguing Week 3 line moves. As in, why is the line moving toward Kent State? Adam also has some wagers you may want to consider based on his updated power ratings.
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Adam and Steve Makinen will post their contributions later this morning.
