Monday Night Football Matchup for NFL Week 10
Steve Makinen is VSiN’s director of analytics, but he is also a Packers fan — as he should be given his Wisconsin roots.
So let’s see what he has to say about the Packers’ MNF matchup with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (8:15 ET/ESPN). The lookahead line was Green Bay -3, reopened at -2.5 and has been bet down to -1.5 at DraftKings and -1 at Circa Sports.
The biggest factor in my backing of the hosts for this one is that the line doesn’t reflect the market values of the teams nor the current statistical metrics that I value in handicapping. In terms of the market perceptions, my Bettors’ Ratings indicate that Green Bay should be a 4.9-point favorite. Similarly, but even more dramatically, my Effective Play-by-play Ratings show that the Pack should be favored by 9.1 points.
I could see an argument that the Eagles might be in better shape for this one coming out of their bye week, but the analytics say otherwise: Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-17 SU and 27-14 ATS since 2019, 65.9%). Plus, Philadelphia is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine post-bye week games versus NFC foes.
I expect a big showing from Green Bay here.
For an opposing view, VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen makes the case for the Eagles.
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
MNF resources
>Opta AI player prop projections for MNF
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
>Weather: Kevin Roth, VSiN’s favorite betting weatherman, says the temperatures will be below freezing in Green Bay.
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
NFL Week 10 in review
Week 10 favorites went 8-4 SU and 6-5-1 ATS on Sunday. Overs were 7-5. >>Season ATS stats from Dave Tuley.
The biggest Week 10 injury: Jaxon Dart suffered a concussion in the Giants’ 24-20 loss to the Bears. Dart’s departure was the beginning of the end for the Giants, who blew a double-digit lead for the fourth time this season. (New York did cover the closing +4.5.)
Moving on to Week 11, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries here.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
Survivor down to 1,000
>Circa Survivor: We started with 18,718 entries back in Week 1. And now we’re down to an even 1,000 heading to Week 11 after losses by Panthers (No. 1 choice with 490), and the Bills (261).
>Circa Grandissimo: After starting with 69, there are six live entries left with four eliminated by the Bills’ loss and one by the Panthers. With $6.9 million at stake, the word “chop” may started to surface this week.
>Circa Million: Top 5 most-selected teams are 3-1 with the Eagles +2.5 pending on MNF; wins by the Lions -7.5 (No. 1 picks back to .500 at 5-5), Ravens -3.5 and Seahawks -6.5; loss by Bucs -2.5. Per Tuley, the top 5 is 19-30, 38.8 percent..
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Fox Sports betting analyst Chris Fallica is just a half-point ahead of Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis, who has the Eagles +2.5 tonight. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: The Average Joes had a prescient week: There are 16 contestants with perfect 7-0 records and 13 more at 6-0 heading into MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Today in college basketball
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has picks for today’s college basketball menu.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Adam Burke will offer his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
Other college hoops resources:
>Steve Makinen’s daily power ratings.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits.
>College Basketball Picks Page.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
Quick Hits
MLB: Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were charged with fraud, conspiracy and bribery stemming from an alleged scheme to rig individual pitches that led to gamblers winning hundreds of thousands of dollars, according to an indictment unsealed by federal prosecutors Sunday. >>Details from ESPN.
College Football: Adam Burke adjusts his power ratings based on Week 11 results and highlights some of the early line moves for Week 12.
NBA: Look for Best Bets from Zach Cohen and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
