Today marks the Sports Equinox — the only time when the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL play on the same day.
Tight endings? Not Sunday
Forget about National Tight End Day. Sunday was National Blowout Day.
11 games. 10 games decided by double digits — the exception being the Jets’ 39-38 upset of the Bengals.
And the betting market indicates we’ll get another one tonight.
The Chiefs are 10.5- or 11-point home favorites vs. the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders (8:15 ET, ABC/ESPN) with the great majority of DraftKings and Circa bettors backing the Chiefs on the spread.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen breaks down this one:
It’s hard to blame those that want to back the Chiefs. Kansas City is third in the NFL in EPA per play (0.175), so Patrick Mahomes’ unit should be able to do some damage against a Washington defense that is 24th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.058). And without Daniels, it’ll be difficult for the Commanders to keep up. However, the best play in this game could be the Over.
Marcus Mariota is a very good backup in this league. In fact, if you ignore the snap minimum at Pro Football Focus, he’s sixth in the NFL with a Pro Football Focus passing grade of 81.5. Mariota will also have all of the Washington pass-catchers at his disposal, as Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel will both play in the Monday night game. On top of that, Kliff Kingsbury is a creative play caller, plus Mariota is a very good runner.
A few more opinions:
Steve Makinen: Laying 7 points or more has long not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 48-15 SU but just 23-38-2 ATS (37.7%) since 2012.
Dave Tuley: The Chiefs often let teams stick around before pulling out their wins. Granted, it hasn’t worked the last two weeks, but I’m still confident we’re on the right side.
>Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
Prop advice and tools
>Opta AI projections for Commanders-Chiefs
>>Spotchecking the Opta AI results: 14-10 record vs. DraftKings player prop lines on passing yards, 32-29 on rushing yards and 74-55 on receiving yards.
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
Other MNF resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits.
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
A day for NFL favorites, Overs . . .
On National Blowout Day, favorites dominated (9-2 SU & ATS) and so did Overs (8-1-2).
Besides the Jets’ first win of the season, the other upset was the Dolphins’ 34-10 beatdown of the Falcons (-7) with Kirk Cousins at the helm.
>>Season ATS stats from Dave Tuley.
The biggest Week 8 injury: Tear up the Cam Skattebo Offensive Rookie of the Year tickets. The Giants RB suffered a season-ending dislocation of his right ankle in a 38-20 loss to the Eagles.
Postscript on Lamar Jackson injury controversy: Ravens coach John Harbaugh said the misleading injury report was an honest mistake. The NFL will have the final word. That said, Baltimore covered all the spreads with a 30-16 victory over the Bears.
Moving on to Week 9, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries here.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
. . . but 2 upsets cut Survivor field by 50%
>Circa Survivor: The day started with 4,210 live entries and finished with 2,057 because of losses by the Falcons (1,387), Bengals (765) and 49ers (1). There are 81 pending on the Chiefs.
>Circa Grandissimo: Two entries on the Falcons were eliminated, leaving 13 live entries with one on the Chiefs.
>Circa Million: Top 5 most-selected teams went 2-3; wins by Bucs -3.5 & Bills -7; losses by Bears +6.5, Steelers +3 & 49ers +1.5. Per Tuley, top 5 is 15-25 (37.5%) on the season.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Fox Sports betting analyst Chris Fallica went 3-3-1 but has a 2.5-point lead over Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: Eight contestants are already in the clubhouse with perfect records and seven more pending on MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
World Series Game 3 Best Bets
The Dodgers are -196 favorites at Circa as Tyler Glasnow will take on the Blue Jays (+175) and Max Scherzer in Game 3 tonight (8 ET, Fox).
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
(Get an alert when they file by signing up for VSiN’s push notifications.)
And, yes, Dave Ross did hedge his $66,000 ticket on the Blue Jays to win the World Series, but I will let him explain on VSiN By The Books today (7-10 a.m. ET).
Quick Hits
College Football: Adam Burke adjusts his power ratings based on Week 9 results and highlights some of the early line moves for Week 10.
FYI: LSU fired coach Brian Kelly on Sunday. A 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M was the last straw . . . but still good for a $54M buyout.
NBA: Look for Best Bets from Zach Cohen and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our new Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
College Basketball: The 194-page VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide is available for download.
Horse Racing: It’s Breeders’ Cup week! DRF’s Brad Free shares his thoughts on the races ahead of tonight’s draw (7 ET).
Special 1/ST BET offer: Deposit and bet $200 on the Breeders’ Cup at 1/ST BET with promo code VSINBC and you’ll be entered for a chance to win a VIP Vegas Experience at Circa — including a two-night stay, a $250 food and beverage credit, your own cabana at Stadium Swim, and a behind-the-scenes visit to the VSiN studio. Plus, when you deposit and bet just $100, you’ll score a one-year VSiN Pro subscription. Sign up today.
