VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Bowl Games
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data
VSiN.com’s Betting Splits pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
Here are the DK Betting Splits College Football Systems and their updated performance records (as of Nov. 6):
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season through No. 4, when 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 72-84 ATS (46%). This angle has matched the same 46% record in ’23 as it did in ’22. If you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE, OLD DOMINION, UTSA, SAN JOSE STATE, KANSAS, WEST VIRGINIA, OKLAHOMA STATE, SMU, ARIZONA, KENTUCKY, IOWA STATE, AUBURN, GEORGIA, WYOMING, LSU, ALABAMA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager from the start of the ’22 season to Nov. 5, this majority group was just 138-158 ATS (46.6%). Last season it was 46.5%, this year it is 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, JAMES MADISON, MINNESOTA, TULANE, SMU, GEORGIA, LSU, OREGON, ALABAMA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the HANDLE backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone just 235-282 ATS (43.7%), generally maintaining consistency from ’22 to ‘23. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
System matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE, MIAMI OHIO, NEW MEXICO STATE, BOISE STATE, UTSA, TROY, BOWLING GREEN, TEXAS STATE, LOUISVILLE, OKLAHOMA STATE, SMU, NC STATE, NOTRE DAME, LSU, WASHINGTON
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the ’22 season in which the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they have been relatively sharp, going 49-34 (59%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 83 of 1321 games.
System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GEORGIA STATE-UTAH STATE, LOUISVILLE-USC, MEMPHIS-IOWA STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER have gone 24-10 (70.6%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDERs, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority are sharp.
System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOTRE DAME-OREGON STATE, GEORGIA-FLORIDA STATE, TOLEDO-WYOMING, IOWA-TENNESSEE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 43-25 (63.2%). This system has actually gone up in win percentage this season. Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of number of BETS has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System matches (PLAY OVER ALL): RUTGERS-MIAMI FLA, GEORGIA-FLORIDA STATE
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
College football revenge systems
Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 45-30 ATS (60%).
System match: PLAY GEORGIA TECH
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 597-535 ATS (52.7%) as compared to those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).
System match (GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAM ALLOWING <= 24 PPG): TEXAS
Extreme stat next-game CFB betting systems
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 74-43 ATS (63.2%) in the follow-up contest.
System match: PLAY MICHIGAN (-1.5 vs Alabama), PLAY FLORIDA STATE (+14 vs Georgia)
College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Bowl Games Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. OHIO +3.5 (+5.9), 2. FRESNO STATE +3.5 (+5.0), 3. WESTERN KENTUCKY +2.5 (+4.4), 4 (tie). TEXAS STATE +4.5 (+3.6) and NORTH CAROLINA +5.5 (+3.6), 6. DUKE +7.5 (+3.2), 7. BOWLING GREEN +4 (+2.4), 8. USC +8 (+2.3), 9 (tie). LOUISIANA +3 (+2.1) and TULANE +7.5 (+2.1)
Bowl Games Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. SYRACUSE -3 (+6.1), 2. SMU -11 (+6.0), 3. PENN STATE -3.5 (+5.6), 4. NOTRE DAME -6.5 (+4.7), 5. UTAH -7 (+3.9), 6. MIAMI FLA -1 (+3.0), 7. JAMES MADISON -2.5 (+2.8), 8. NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1 (+2.7), 9. CLEMSON -5 (+2.5), 10. TENNESSEE -8.5 (+2.0)
Bowl Games Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. DUKE +7.5 (+4.5), 2. FLORIDA STATE +14 (+4.3), 3. LIBERTY +17.5 (+2.9), 4. EASTERN MICHIGAN +15.5 (+2.4), 5. BOSTON COLLEGE +11 (+2.3), 6. UNLV +12.5 (+2.0), 7. OHIO STATE +2.5 (+1.9), 8. FRESNO STATE +3.5 (+1.7), 9. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+1.5), 10. COASTAL CAROLINA +10 (+1.3)
Bowl Games Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. NOTRE DAME -6.5 (+2.6), 2. TEXAS A&M -3 (+2.0), 3 (tie). KANSAS STATE -3 (+1.7) and PENN STATE -3.5 (+1.7), 5 (tie). UCLA -4 (+1.2) and UCF -4.5 (+1.2) and MIAMI FLA -1 (+1.2) and UTSA -10.5 (+1.2), 9. CLEMSON -5 (+1.0), 10. JAMES MADISON -2.5 (+0.6)
Bowl Games Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. BOWLING GREEN-MINNESOTA OVER 38 (+6.4), 2. GEORGIA-FLORIDA STATE OVER 44.5 (+3.9), 3. IOWA-TENNESSEE OVER 36.5 (+3.3), 4. OLE MISS-PENN STATE OVER 49 (+3.0), 5. ALABAMA-MICHIGAN OVER 45.5 (+2.5), 6 (tie). UCF-GEORGIA TECH OVER 64.5 (+2.4) and UTAH-NORTHWESTERN OVER 41.5 (+2.4), 8. MIAMI OHIO-APPALACHIAN STATE OVER 45.5 (+1.9), 9 (tie). UTSA-MARSHALL OVER 53.5 (+1.6) and NC STATE-KANSAS STATE OVER 47 (+1.6)
Bowl Games Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. KANSAS-UNLV UNDER 64.5 (-7.0), 2. LIBERTY-OREGON UNDER 65.5 (-3.0), 3. JACKSONVILLE STATE-LOUISIANA UNDER 59.5 (-2.9), 4. TEXAS-WASHINGTON UNDER 64 (-2.4), 5. ARIZONA-OKLAHOMA UNDER 62 (-1.9), 6. COASTAL CAROLINA-SAN JOSE STATE UNDER 53.5 (-1.8), 7. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-OHIO UNDER 48 (-1.7), 8. MISSOURI-OHIO STATE UNDER 48.5 (-1.6), 9. SYRACUSE-USF UNDER 61 (-1.4), 10. CAL-TEXAS TECH UNDER 58 (-1.3)
Bowl Games Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. FRESNO STATE +3.5 (+13.6), 2. TOLEDO +3 (+9.1), 3. NORTH CAROLINA +5.5 (+7.3), 4. TULANE +7.5 (+6.1), 5. OHIO STATE +2.5 (+5.5), 6 (tie). COASTAL CAROLINA +10 (+5.4) and UNLV +12.5 (+5.4), 8. WESTERN KENTUCKY +2.5 (+5.3), 9. BOSTON COLLEGE +11 (+5.2), 10. OKLAHOMA +3 (+4.7)
Bowl Games Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. UTAH -7 (+10.8), 2. TEXAS TECH -2.5 (+9.0), 3 (tie). MINNESOTA -4 (+7.6) and KANSAS STATE -3 (+7.6), 5. TENNESSEE -8.5 (+7.3), 6. SYRACUSE -3 (+6.9), 7. UCLA -4 (+5.8), 8. UTSA -10.5 (+5.4), 9. APPALACHIAN STATE -5.5 (+4.9), 10. GEORGIA -14 (+4.7)
Bowl Games Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. ALABAMA-MICHIGAN OVER 45.5 (+5.4), 2. NORTH CAROLINA-WEST VIRGINIA OVER 56.5 (+4.9), 3. BOWLING GREEN-MINNESOTA OVER 38 (+4.8), 4. OLE MISS-PENN STATE OVER 49 (+3.9), 5. NOTRE DAME-OREGON STATE OVER 43 (+3.7), 6. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-OHIO OVER 48 (+3.5), 7. GEORGIA-FLORIDA STATE OVER 44.5 (+3.0), 8. LIBERTY-OREGON OVER 65.5 (+2.9), 9. JAMES MADISON-AIR FORCE OVER 41 (+2.8), 10. LOUISVILLE-USC OVER 57.5 (+2.6)
Bowl Games Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1 (tie). JACKSONVILLE STATE-LOUISIANA UNDER 59.5 (-3.7) and UTSA-MARSHALL UNDER 53.5 (-3.7), 3. SOUTH ALABAMA-EASTERN MICHIGAN UNDER 47 (-2.2), 4 (tie). UCF-GEORGIA TECH UNDER 64.5 (-1.3) and TEXAS STATE-RICE UNDER 59.5 (-1.3) and TOLEDO-WYOMING UNDER 44.5 (-1.3), 7. SYRACUSE-USF UNDER 61 (-1.0), 8 (tie). CLEMSON-KENTUCKY UNDER 46.5 (-0.8) and MEMPHIS-IOWA STATE UNDER 57.5 (-0.8), 10. WESTERN KENTUCKY-OLD DOMINION UNDER 55.5 (-0.7)
Bowl game series trends for 2023-24
Bowl game conference trends for 2023-24