WNBA Best Bets for Wednesday, July 5
Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty -13.5, 163.5
The last time these teams played each other on June 18th, the Liberty won 89-71 and covered as 15-point favorites. The Mercury (3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS) are now ranked dead last in defensive rating and turnover percentage. Things don’t get much better on the other side of the ball with the Mercury at 11th in offensive rating. Phoenix is also under new management with Nikki Blue now head coach after they let Vanessa Nygaard go last week. Since then, the Mercury have gone 1-2 SU and ATS.
New York (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) is comfortably the second-best team in the league ranking second-best in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage and fourth in defensive rating. They easily dispensed of the Mercury last time, so you could lay the points with the Liberty again here, or better yet wait for a live opportunity to get them at a better number.
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx -1, 165.5
Indiana (5-11 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) has lost four straight and failed to cover their last two games. Minnesota (7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS) has won and covered in three straight games, a streak which happens to coincide with the return of their 2023 first-round pick. Diamond Miller came back from injury last week and since then has scored 18 or more points in each of the three games since her return. Granted, the Lynx played the Storm (twice) and then the Mercury which are the bottom two teams in terms of record. Nevertheless, the Lynx seem to be on a slight upswing.
Oddly enough, the Fever’s offense has not been going through Aliyah Boston as much in their last two games. Boston only scored four and six points in her last two games after scoring 18 and 20 vs. the Aces before that. She has only scored in single digits in four games total this season in her 15 games played, so hopefully the Fever go back to utilizing their star rookie.
When these teams last played in Minnesota on June 9th, the Fever won 71-69. Neither team is ranked higher than eighth in defensive rating, but the Fever do rank first in opponent points in the paint, which is where this game could be decided. The Lynx have racked up three straight overs after a series of four Unders, and I could see this Over trend continue for them against the Fever. The Fever have been on the road for four of their last five games, but they are 7-2-1 ATS on the road this season. This could be a get-right spot for the Fever, but I think the Lynx are more than capable of getting this done at home.
Minnesota Lynx -1
Dallas Wings at Las Vegas Aces -15, 175.5
Las Vegas (15-1 SU, 9-7 ATS) is rolling having lost only one game this season and covering five of their last seven games. They are now 6-3 ATS at home and have hit ten overs this season. It’s clear they have the best offense in the league by far, and they even lead the pack in defensive rating.
Dallas (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) is ranked sixth in offensive rating but can struggle with scoring efficiently, currently ranked last in effective field goal percentage and 11th in true shooting percentage. Both the Aces and Wings are ranked top three in pace, so naturally these teams are always tempting to bet Overs on and regularly see very high totals. While there have been four Unders in Dallas’s last five games, four of those games were against opponents that rank eighth or worse in offensive rating. Still, this is the highest total the Wings have seen this season. This total opened around 173.5 and is now already up to as high as 176.5. Both the Aces and Wings are also top three in fast break points scored. At this point, it has been bet up too high for me to want in, but if Dallas can sink their shots, we are in for a very high-scoring affair.
The Aces at home are not to be messed with. However, the Wings are also the best offensive rebounding team in the league, rank second in second-chance points, and third in opponents’ points in the paint. They have the size and speed to compete with the Aces and could surprise the spread and keep this one close.
Atlanta Dream at Los Angeles Sparks -1, 168
The Dream (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS) won when these teams played on Sunday in Atlanta, 112-84. Now they travel to Los Angeles (7-10 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) to face this depleted Sparks team again.
Jordin Canada missed the last game due to a shoulder injury but is not listed on the injury report for this game. Three Sparks are listed as out: Chiney Ogwumike (foot), Lexie Brown (non-covid illness), and Nia Clouden (knee). Canada certainly adds structure, fluidity, and points for the Sparks, but the Dream dominated the Sparks in the paint on Sunday and should be able to duplicate those efforts. Nneka Ogwumike’s rebound prop is set at 9.5, but she hasn’t had more than six rebounds vs the Dream in her last three matchups (dating back to last season) and recorded just five on Sunday. Right now, she’s being asked to do it all for this Sparks team (scoring 20+ points in four of her last six games), but something has to give.
Atlanta Dream Moneyline -105
Nneka Ogwumike Under 9.5 rebounds