WNBA Best Bets:
We have a jam-packed WNBA schedule ahead on Friday-Sunday with some fun matchups, and (thankfully) lines are already out for all weekend games, so we’re able to go ahead and make some WNBA best bets in these markets at softer numbers.
WNBA Betting Splits | Parlay Calculator
Let’s get right into the projections:
FRIDAY:
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream
I’m not sure what’s gotten into Connecticut lately, but they’ve looked like a shell of themselves the last few games. Friday night, they’ll take on Atlanta – another struggling team – as 8-point favorites with an Over/Under anywhere between 151.5 to 153, depending on where you look. TSI projects Sun -12 with a total of 149.5. Despite Thursday’s matchup with Washington being a high-scoring affair, all TSI-adjacent formulas indicate this should go Under. They’re also on a back-to-back, so they should have some fatigue setting in at some point in this game.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 153 (play to 152)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks
The Mercury were one of the hottest teams in the W a week ago, but then a horrifically cold shooting night resulted in them getting destroyed by the Storm. They’re probably eager to get back in the saddle tonight against a down – but on the rise – Sparks team. Phoenix is favored by 10.5 with a total up to 166.5, while TSI is in lockstep, projecting Mercury -10.5 with a total of 166.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers
SATURDAY:
Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces
I don’t know that any team in the league deserves more credit for their talent-to-power-rating-ratio than Washington, who’s climbing the power ratings despite not having Elena Delle Donne for the season and losing two starters in the last week. They’re feisty and just took Connecticut to overtime Thursday night. However, Vegas is catching fire and is favored by 12.5 with an Over/Under of 170.5. Both teams’ numbers recently look good, but with the injuries to Washington, TSI projects Vegas as an 11-point favorite with a total of 176.5.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 170.5 (Play to 172)
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings
Dallas continues to be the team that annoys me the most this season; I bet their season win total Over, only for them to fall on their face out of the gate. Every time the numbers indicate to fade them, they overperform and end up beating the Lynx (see: Thursday afternoon). They’re seemingly impossible. Saturday, they’re 8.5-point underdogs versus Seattle with an Over/Under of 166.5 at DraftKings. TSI projects Seattle -10.5 with a total of 162.5. Some other books have already moved this total down to 164.5. As Michael Scott says, “No doubt about it. I am ready to get hurt again.”
WNBA Best Bet: Seattle Storm -8.5 (Play to 9.5), Under 166.5 (play to 165.5)
SUNDAY:
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
These are two teams heading in two separate directions. Atlanta is in a freefall, and New York is the #1 rated team in the TSI. New York is favored by 13.5 with an Over/Under of 164. TSI projects New York -16.5 with a total of 167.5. I will likely end up betting New York here once I see what the market will do, but I definitely will take this Over now.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 164 (Play to 165)
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx
I wrote this week about Angel Reese’s case for league Rookie of the Year and talked about her value to Chicago. That will be tested against Napheesa Collier and company on Sunday. Minnesota is favored by just 3.5 with an Over/Under of 162.5 despite TSI calling for a 7.5-point Lynx win with a total of 160.5. Minnesota had a letdown against Dallas on Thursday, but I expect a bounceback game from them, particularly on defense. This is a good buy low spot on Minnesota and a good spot to buy the under after a couple of unusually high-scoring games in a row for Lynx opponents.
WNBA Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (Play to -4.5), Under 162.5 (Play to 161.5)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever
Caitlin Clark and company are back in action after dropping two straight games to Chicago and Seattle, taking on the aforementioned Mercury as 7-point underdogs with an Over/Under of 169.5. TSI projects Mercury -9.5 with a total of 172.5. From an ATS perspective, I’m not sure what to make of either of these teams. I do know they both can score and allow points in bunches, so I’m going to hit this Over early.
WNBA Best Bet: Over 169.5 (Play to 170.5)
For all of my prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get the real time updates from me on all things WNBA.
