WNBA Picks
After another standalone game in the W last night between the Wings and Sparks, in which Paige Bueckers went for 44 points, we’ve got four games on the slate for Thursday. The Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics will rematch after the Sun shockingly beat the Mystics by double figures as underdogs in their last game. The Liberty hosts the Sky, Minnesota visits Atlanta, and the red-hot Aces take on the Mercury in Las Vegas. Here are the TSI projections for each game:
Connecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics (-2), O/U 158.5
As I mentioned in the intro, Connecticut got their first win in three attempts this season against Washington, winning by 11 after previously getting beaten by 37 and 5 points in the first two matchups. So the median margin so far has been Washington by 5, with the median total being 175. TSI projects Mystics -4 with a total of 159.5, but over the last five games, this would be closer to a pick ‘em, so I’m going to pass altogether here.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Atlanta Dream vs Minnesota Lynx (-3.5), O/U 161.5
The line movement from Atlanta -1 to Lynx -3.5 tells me Napheesa Collier might be returning to the Minnesota lineup after missing several games with an ankle injury. Personally, I don’t know why they’d rush her back when they pretty much have the #1 seed in their firm control and are winning games without her. These teams have split the season series 1-1 so far, with each team winning a game by four points, with an average total of 182. TSI projects Minnesota -1.5 with a total of 166. I’m going to play Atlanta, because the last five games (less important here if Collier plays), home/road splits, and season-long metrics all indicate Atlanta shouldn’t be getting more than a point and a half here.
WNBA Pick: Dream +3.5 (Play to +2.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-1.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 171.5
No team is as hot as Vegas is right now. However, I think their recent run has caused a market overreaction, because even looking at the data from the last five games, I’d still favor Phoenix by a point. The official TSI projection here is Mercury -2.5 with a total of 169.5, but looking at the last five games, season-long data, and the estimated market ratings, this total should be no higher than the TSI projection, and as low as 165.5, so I’m going to play the Under.
WNBA Pick: Under 171.5 (Play to 169.5)
New York Liberty (-15) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 163.5
The Liberty finally exorcised their Lynx demons this week, beating the Collier-less Lynx by 10. Chicago is in a free fall but hopes to get Angel Reese back in the coming games. New York has dominated Chicago this year, winning both games by an average of 22 points with an average combined total of 162. TSI projects Liberty -16 with a total of 163, and looking at the last five games, I’d even make the Liberty a 24-point favorite here. Should be blowout city, so give me the Liberty, even at a huge number.
WNBA Pick: Liberty -15 (Play to -16)
