WNBA Picks
It’s a packed Sunday slate in the WNBA. There are five games today, including the Washington Mystics hosting the Dallas Wings and Paige Buckers, the two-time champion Aces and MVP A’ja Wilson hosting Caitlin Clark and the Fever, the scrappy Golden State Valkyries hosting the lowly Connecticut Sun, Allisha Gray and the Dream taking on Angel Reese and the Sky, and huge matchup between the Seattle Storm and the New York Liberty. This slate provides plenty of entertainment value and betting opportunities, so let’s see what the T Shoe Index projects for these matchups:
Washington Mystics (-4.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 165.5
This is a game featuring two teams who probably view it as a “must-win.” As you’re looking through the gauntlet of the WNBA schedule, you’re probably telling yourself you’ve got to beat Dallas/Washington to have any prayer of making the playoffs, because beating the Liberty, Fever, etc. is unlikely (though possible, of course). If you were watching closely enough, this line opened at recreational books with Dallas as a 3-point favorite. However, that’s now moved a whopping 7.5 points towards Washington despite any injury news that I could find. The total moved from 163.5 to 165.5, and TSI projects Mystics -2.5 with a total of 168, although some formulas are as high as 171, so I’ll play the Over here.
WNBA Pick: Over 165.5 (Play to 166.5)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever (-1), O/U 171.5
The good news for Vegas is that A’ja Wilson returned from a concussion last game against Seattle. The bad news is that it didn’t matter. They still lost the game outright, dropping to 5-7 on the season. Indiana is also coming off a loss to Golden State, which is probably partially explained by the situational spot coming off the highly emotional win against the Sun. The market for this game moved to 1.5 and came back to the opening 1, while the total has shot up from 167.5 to 171.5. TSI projects Fever -4 with a total of 164.5, but due to the time missed for such huge pieces (Clark and Wilson), I think that’s muddied the tempo data temporarily for these teams, so I’m only going to stay away from the total and back the Fever.
WNBA Pick: Indiana Fever -1 (Play to -2)
Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 154.5
Golden State recently beat Caitlin Clark and Indiana, and now takes on the worst team in the league, which might be without Marina Mabrey. The market is all Valkyries and Under here, moving the line from 6.5 to 9.5 and the total from 158.5 to 154.5. TSI projects Golden State -13.5 with a total of 152.5, and the formulas on the spread go as high as 17.5, indicating this one could get ugly, so give me the Valkyries even at this already-elevated line.
WNBA Pick: Valkyries -9.5 (play to -10.5)
Atlanta Dream (-15.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 159
The 9-4 Atlanta Dream and MVP darkhorse Allisha Gray host Angel Reese and the Sky Sunday, and the market has not really had an appetite for this game. The spread has merely moved from 15 to 15.5, and the total has remained at 159. TSI projects Dream -11.5 with a total of 159.5, but I don’t have a play on this game because Chicago seems to get blown out by everyone that is not Connecticut and the home/road splits formula makes this total 156.5, so just too much conflicting data to feel good about a bet here.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty (-2.5), O/U 165.5
The biggest story in this game is that Liberty star and former MVP Jonquel Jones will miss 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury that’s nagged her most of this season. The Liberty will take on a fearless Seattle team that is fresh off a win against A’ja Wilson and the Aces. They are playing great basketball right now. The market recognizes this and has moved from Liberty -4 to -2.5, while the total has ticked up from 164.5 to 165.5. TSI projects Liberty -3.5 with a total of 165.5. I do think with the home/road splits and the absence of JJ in the middle for the Liberty, this will be more of an offensive battle, so I would lean Over.
WNBA Pick: Lean Over 165.5
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