WNBA Picks
We dropped our only play on Thursday, as the Liberty got embarrassed at home by the Valkyries, who were on a back-to-back. We’re back with a four-game slate on Friday, featuring the Indiana Fever hosting the Connecticut Sun, the Atlanta Dream hosting the Portland Fire, the LA Sparks hosting the Washington Mystics, and the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Toronto Tempo. Here are the TSI projections for Friday, August 28th.
Indiana Fever (-17.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 177.5
Indiana has their sights set on a playoff run, as they’ve already clinched a berth and have been playing three points below their season average over the last three games. Connecticut may be done with the season, as they’ve been five points below their already-putrid season average over the last four games. They’ve been six points worse on the road, while Indiana has been 4.5 points better at home, so there’s a reason this line is 17.5. TSI projects Indiana -16 with a total of 178, so this is a pass for me because it would be Indiana or nothing, and I don’t want to lay that big of a number with a team that’s not motivated to run it up.
Atlanta Dream (-12.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 180.5
Atlanta is closing the regular season out very well, playing ten points above their season average over the last three games and just acquired DeWanna Bonner (who will not play tonight). Portland is another non-playoff team who’s trending down, playing six points below their season average over the last three games. TSI projects Atlanta -12.5 with a total of 181.5, and I’d lean Atlanta but another big number I don’t want to lay.
Los Angeles Sparks (+5.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 167.5
Same story here with LA: another non-playoff team playing below their season average over the last three games. In their case, it’s six points below their season average; meanwhile, Washington is playing five points above their season average and have won five out of six games. TSI projects Mystics -1 with a total of 174, and I like the Over here. Both teams’ last few home/road games have averaged more than this number, and fading the Sparks defense is never a bad idea.
Bet: Over 167.5 (Play to 168.5)
Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 175.5
Another big number here. Both teams are playing right at their season average over the last three games, although Toronto is still missing Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes due to injury. TSI projects Aces -14.5 with a total of 176, so it seems the market and TSI are pretty locked in today. I can’t really find an angle I like in this game, no matter which way I slice the data.
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