WNBA Picks
We had a nice 2-1 day yesterday, getting the Wings/Mercury Under and Liberty/Dream Over but losing the Fever/Sky Under. I’ll take 67% all day, every day. We’re back at it Friday night with a couple of games in the W, featuring the Toronto Tempo visiting the Washington Mystics and the Golden State Valkyries traveling to Seattle to take on the Storm. Here are the TSI projections for both Friday night games.
Washington Mystics (-2.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 168.5
Washington is just 2-5 in their last seven games and is 1-3 at home, but has a +3 points per game differential in regulation at home despite the poor record. Toronto has caught fire and won 4 of their last 5 games, but is 3-3 on the road this season. TSI projects Washington -4 with a total of 174.5. I’m going to play the Over here, as Toronto road games have scored 14 points per game more than their home games, and Washington home games have scored two more points per game than their road games. My last 3 games’ formula makes this more like 178, so the data suggests there should be plenty of points here.
Bet: Over 168.5 (Play to 170.5)
Seattle Storm (+9.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 157.5
Seattle has now lost seven straight games by an average score of 86-72, although two of their three wins this season have come at home. Golden State is 7-5 on the season but just 1-2 in their last three. TSI projects Golden State -6 with a total of 160.5 in this game, and it’s worth noting that Seattle has been six points better at home, while Golden State has been 2.5 points worse on the road so far this season. The numbers lean heavily to Seattle and the Over, so let’s play them both.
Bet: Storm +9.5 or better
Bet: Over 157.5 (Play to 158.5)
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