WNBA Picks
Last night didn’t quite go as planned, obviously. The Aces blew a double-digit lead multiple times to eventually lose the game outright to the Wings, while the Fever lost by two, and of course, we had them at +1.5. That’s life in betting, no doubt. Nonetheless, we ride again today with a foursome of games, featuring the Mystics hosting the Sparks – without Kelsey Plum, the Liberty and Mercury rematching from earlier this week, Chicago hosting Minnesota, and Portland hosting Atlanta. It should be a very exciting evening in the W, so let’s get to the TSI projections.
Washington Mystics (-2.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 167.5
As I mentioned, Kelsey Plum, the WNBA’s leading scorer, is out for this game with an ankle injury she suffered in practice. LA is 4th in TSI offensive rating this season, scoring about 3 points per game above opponent averages; however, they’re dead last on defense, giving up 6.5 points per game above opponents’ usual outputs. Washington is 13th on offense but 4th on defense, scoring less than 5 points per game below opponents’ averages but allowing 4 points fewer. TSI projects LA -2.5 with a total of 173, which indicates the market is valuing Kelsey Plum at ~5 points. I think that’s too high. I’m going to back the shorthanded Sparks here on the road.
Bet: Sparks +2.5 (play to pk)
New York Liberty (-5.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 169
Sabrina Ionescu has already been ruled out again for this game, and I don’t think anyone quite knows what’s going on with Satou Sabally for New York, so betting their games has proven pretty tricky so far this season. Phoenix has only won one game after their opening victory over Vegas, so they’re not quite what people thought they’d be, either. This is also their third road game in six days, so from a scheduling standpoint, I’d like to fade them here. However, TSI makes New York a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 170, so I’m out on this game altogether.
Chicago Sky (+4.5) vs Minnesota Lynx, O/U 172
What started as a very promising season has quickly turned into three straight losses for Chicago, whom I criticized pretty heavily in the preseason for their inconsistent roster-building strategy. Minnesota hasn’t missed a beat despite not having Napheesa Collier all season and Bridget Carleton going to Portland in the expansion draft. They’re 5-2 with wins over Atlanta and Dallas and just beat this Chicago team by 10 on the road a week ago. TSI projects Minnesota -4 with a total of 172, so no value at current numbers, but I personally bet Minnesota -2.5 and Over 168.5 in case those numbers become available again.
Portland Fire (+9) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 164.5
Portland, whose preseason win total was just 9.5 (maybe 8.5 at some shops), has already won five games, including two over the preseason favorite, Liberty. They’re on a three-game win streak and playing their first of a home back-to-back. Atlanta is 4-2 and coming off a loss to Minnesota. TSI projects Dream -10 with a total of 168. Both of these teams have shown the ability to put up points, so I really like the Over here.
Bet: Over 164.5 (Play to 165.5)
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