WNBA Picks
It was a tough afternoon for us yesterday, going just 1-2 on bets as the Mystics easily covered the spread but couldn’t quite keep the total under the number, and the Sparks & Valkyries forgot how to score for two quarters to keep that game under the total. We’re back at it Monday with just a two-game slate, featuring the Atlanta Dream hosting the Toronto Tempo and the Seattle Storm hosting the Chicago Sky. Here are the TSI projections from Monday, August 10th.
Atlanta Dream (-13.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 187
Atlanta is just 1-2 in their last three games, getting outscored 90-86 on average in those games, putting them seven points below their season average rating. Yikes. The good news for them is that they’re at home, where they’ve been two points better on the season. Plus, they’re playing Toronto, who’s allowing 101 points per game over the last seven games and is playing six points below their season average. TSI projects Dream -14 with a total of 183. However, I’m not going to play the Under because the home/road scoring splits make me think this game could go Over, due to the fact that Atlanta’s last three home games have averaged 188 points, while Toronto’s last five non-Valkyries games have averaged 190 points. Pass for me.
Seattle Storm (-1) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 179.5
Seattle has lost 11 straight games and hasn’t won a game since July 6th. The good news for them is that they’re playing at home, where they’ve been 7.5 points better this season than on the road. Over the last three games, Seattle is playing two points below its season average and Chicago has been right at its season average. TSI projects Seattle -3 with a total of 181, and the home/road splits combined with the recent scoring trends indicate this game could approach the upper 180s, so I like the Over here. Over the last ten games, these teams are combining to score about 9.5 points above expectation, so I’m going to ride this wave, especially with Seattle being at home.
Bet: Over 179.5 (Play to 180.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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