WNBA Picks
Day 2 of the WNBA season tips off Saturday with some highly-anticipated matchups. Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever will take on Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings, the defending champion Aces will have a WNBA Finals rematch vs the Mercury, Angel Reese makes her Atlanta debut against the Lynx without Napheesa Collier, and the new-look Chicago Sky will travel to Portland for the first game in Fire franchise history. It should be a really fun day of hoops and TSI has you covered with projections on all of the games.
For the rare standalone games, I’ll post those publicly on X (@TShoeIndex).
Indiana Fever (-5.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 177.5
Caitlin Clark makes her much anticipated return after playing just 13 games last season for the Fever. Dallas will debut its new star-studded backcourt of Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd, while hoping bucket-getter Arike Ogunbowale returns to her usual self after a down year last year. TSI projects Indiana -7.5 with a total of 175.5, so unfortunately there’s not much to gain here from an edge perspective. This will be a really exciting game though, nonetheless.
Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 166.5
The Aces kind of sleep-walked through the regular season last year before hitting the turbo just before the playoffs and winning yet another championship. They swept the Mercury in the finals and Kahlea Copper of Phoenix has not forgotten, as she referenced it sternly in her press availability this week. Phoenix did lose star Satou Sabally to the Liberty in free agency but still return MVP candidate and do-it-all forward, Alyssa Thomas. TSI projects Vegas -6.5 with a total of 174, so I really like the Over here.
Bet: Over 166.5 (Play to 168)
Minnesota Lynx (+3.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 157.5
As I mentioned, DPOY and MVP candidate, Napheesa Collier, will be out until at least mid-June while recovering from ankle surgery, putting a bigger onus on Courtney Williams, rookie Olivia Miles, and All-Star Kayla McBride. Atlanta will enter the Angel Reese era to bolster the frontcourt alongside star guards Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. TSI projects Lynx -0.5 with a total of 156, but given the key losses for Minnesota and the question mark of how Reese integrates with Gray and Howard, I’m going to pass on this game to collect a data point.
Portland Fire (+5.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 160.5
Portland was the more long-term-thinking expansion franchise this offseason; opting to acquire long-term assets and young players rather than try to win now, as the Tempo chose to do. They’ll take on Chicago, who I continue to say I’m not really sure what their plan is. They traded Angel Reese for a draft pick, but also went and got a bunch of veterans so I’m not sure what exactly the Sky’s plan is. Both of their preseason games were really high scoring and went Over the total, so maybe a faster, high scoring team is the plan this year after being dreadful offensively last year. TSI projects Chicago -3.5 with a total of 168, so I’m going to play the Over here as well.
Bet: Over 160.5 (Play to 162)
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