WNBA Picks
We had another solid 2-1 night last night, getting the Liberty/Storm Under and Mystics +3.5, although we didn’t get the Sky/Sparks Over to come home. Nonetheless, another solid night to continue our run since the All-Star break. We’re back tonight with three games on the slate, featuring the Indiana Fever hosting the Las Vegas Aces, the Minnesota Lynx hosting the LA Sparks, and the Toronto Tempo visiting the Portland Fire. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday night.
Indiana Fever (+1.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 195.5
This line has flipped from Indiana -1.5 to Indiana +1.5 since yesterday, which is probably a nod to the Aces playing 3.5 points better than their season average over the last three games, while Indiana has been a point below theirs. Indiana has won both matchups so far this season by an average of 96-72. Indiana has been four points better at home, but oddly, Las Vegas has been six points better on the road. TSI projects a pick ‘em with a total of 199. I do think I agree with the line move towards Vegas, but I’m not playing them at this number; however, I will still play the Over, as I think this game gets to 200 points, as Indiana’s last six games have averaged 210 points.
Bet: Over 195.5 (Play to 196.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) vs Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 188.5
Minnesota hit a lull – by their standards – before the All-Star break, but they’ve come back stronger than ever and are playing five points better than their season average right now, although LA is 2.5 points above their season average as well. It’s a bad schedule spot for LA, as they’re on a back-to-back and playing their third road game in five days. Minnesota has won both matchups this season by an average of 98-85. TSI projects Minnesota -17.5 with a total of 196. I don’t want to play an Over due to the back-to-back for LA, but I also don’t love laying 15+ points in a WNBA game. I’d lean Minnesota here, but I’m going to pass officially.
Portland Fire (-2.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 187.5
This is a game between two teams who really need to find some positive regression. Portland is playing four points below its season average over the last three games, while Toronto has been a dreadful minus ten compared to its season average. Portland won the only previous matchup, 99-80 on the road at Toronto in May. TSI projects Portland -2.5 with a total of 189, and the regression trends point to a total as high as 195 here, so I still like the Over even though it’s moved a bit from yesterday. Portland’s last five games have averaged around 200 points, so I feel good about taking an over with two teams who can score but play no defense.
Bet: Over 187.5 (Play to 188)
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