WNBA Picks
We had just one play on the small slate last night in the WNBA, and we cashed the Storm/Sky Over comfortably. Tuesday has a three-game slate for us, featuring the Indiana Fever hosting the New York Liberty, the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Washington Mystics, and the LA Sparks hosting the Phoenix Mercury. Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday, August 11th.
Indiana Fever (-4.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 192
Indiana had been on a tear over the last few weeks before running into the Lynx and Aces and losing both of those games before getting back on track against the Sky. Still, the Fever have been 5.5 points below their season average over the last three games, while New York has seemingly turned a corner and has won four straight after a beatdown of the Aces – who rested multiple key players, including A’ja Wilson. The home team has won each matchup so far this season, with the Fever winning by twenty most recently in Indiana. TSI projects Fever -4.5 with a total of 184.5. Totals have been trending down this week after a hot start post-All-Star, but Indiana averages seven points more per game at home and New York averages three more and allows ten more points on the road, so I’m a little reluctant to pull the trigger on the Under here based on the home/road splits of these teams.
Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 169.5
No team in the league is hotter than Washington right now, as they’ve outplayed their season average by 9.5 points over the last three games; however, on their current seven-game win streak, six of those in a row have been at home, where Washington has been substantially better this season. Vegas should be rested for this one after sitting multiple starters against New York on Sunday. Prior to that shorthanded beatdown by the Liberty, the Aces were playing seven points better than their season average over the previous three games. TSI projects Aces -8.5 with a total of 167, and I really like the Under here, mostly because Washington has largely been a different team on the road, scoring five points per game fewer, and their last five road games have only averaged 149 points per game.
Bet: Under 169.5 (Play to 167.5)
Los Angeles Sparks (-2) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 178.5
In the last three games (basically since the Kelsey Plum trade), LA has been four points better than its season average while Phoenix has been an embarrassing eight points below their season average. Not a great look for Plum, even though of course it’s a team sport. TSI projects Mercury -1.5 with a total of 171.5, and given Plum is listed as OUT for tonight, I think a three-point adjustment is reasonable so this line makes sense to me. I do, however, think the Under is a play here because Mercury road games have averaged 165 total points over the last three, while LA’s average totals have been 172 in that span.
Bet: Under 178.5 (Play to 176.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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