WNBA Picks
We easily cashed the only official play on Monday, as Minnesota took Phoenix to the woodshed, 111-77 as merely 3.5-point favorites. They’re not all that easy, but it sure is nice when the win is sweat-free. Now, we’re onto Tuesday’s action, where there’s a four-pack of games featuring Atlanta hosting Connecticut, Golden State hosting Portland, Washington taking on Chicago in DC, and Vegas traveling to LA for a third matchup against the Sparks already this season. Here are the TSI projections for Tuesday.
Atlanta Dream (-14.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 158
Atlanta comes into this home game at 5-2 on the season, taking on a Connecticut team that just notched its second win of the season last week against LA. As the spread indicates, this is a pretty lopsided matchup, as Atlanta is #8 in TSI offensive rating and is now #1 in TSI defensive rating after the latest update. Atlanta is holding teams 8.5 points below their season averages defensively so far, which is 3 points better than the next best defense. Connecticut is 14th and 13th in offense and defense, respectively. TSI projects Atlanta -12.5 with a total of 165. I’m going to lean Over, but Atlanta is 3-0 to the Under so far at home, and I have doubts about whether Connecticut can hold up their end of an Over, so I’m not going to make it an official play.
Lean: Over 158
Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 162.5
Golden State is 5-3 and coming off a double-digit loss to Las Vegas, while Portland has pleasantly surprised so far this season and sits at 6-4 and is coming off a double-digit win over Caitlin Clark and the Fever. Golden State is 10th and 4th in offensive and defensive rating, while Portland is 12th and 10th. TSI projects Golden State -8 with a total of 167.5. This is a game I don’t hesitate to play the Over because both teams have shown a willingness to play super high scoring games, and Golden State is 4-1 to the Over at home.
Bet: Over 162.5 (Play to 164.5)
Washington Mystics (-1) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 160.5
Washington is just 3-4 to start the season with their youthful-but-promising squad, while Chicago started 3-1 and has lost 4 straight games since. The Mystics are 13th and 5th in offensive and defensive rating, and Chicago is 8th and 6th, respectively. TSI projects Mystics -1 with a total of 167.5 in this game as we see yet another total well below the TSI projection. These teams’ respective home/away games have averaged 174 points, so I’m going to roll with another Over here.
Bet: Over 160.5 (Play to 162)
LA Sparks (+7.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 176
The last time these teams met, we backed LA and were rewarded with an outright win as underdogs. LA has won three of its last four after starting 1-3, but is still without Kelsey Plum, who sustained an ankle injury in practice. Vegas had lost two straight before beating Golden State on Sunday. LA is 6th in TSI offense but dead last in defensive rating, while Vegas is 4th on offense and 12th on defense. TSI projects Vegas -4.5 with a total of 178. Without Kelsey Plum in this matchup, I don’t know that I trust LA to score enough to cover or push the game over, so I’m going to pass altogether.
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