WNBA Picks
No one schedules games in a more nonsensical and inconsistent way than the WNBA. After no games on Tuesday, we’re now cramming six games into the last day before the All-Star break. The Mercury travel to take on the Sparks in LA, Minnesota will rematch the Storm in Seattle, the Liberty host the Sky, the Mystics host the Aces, the Sun travel to Indiana to take on the Fever, and the Fire will host the Wings in the nightcap. Here are the TSI projects for all six games.
LA Sparks (-2.5) vs. Phoenix Mercury, O/U 177.5
LA has lost four straight games and has played two points below its season average in those games, while Phoenix just ended a five-game skid with a win over Connecticut over the weekend. TSI projects LA -2 with a total of 175 in this game, and the thing to keep in mind is Phoenix has been four points better on the road than at home this season, and LA has been 2.5 points better at home. Based on the regression numbers, this is a bounce-back spot for LA, so that would be my lean, but the number is pretty much spot on.
Seattle Storm (+10.5) vs. Minnesota Lynx, O/U 178.5
Seattle just kept it very close with Minnesota a few days ago, losing by just four points at home. They’ll now rematch, but Minnesota will have its star, Napheesa Collier, back in the lineup and making her season debut. Who knows how many minutes she’ll play or how game-ready she will be after such a layoff, but it’s worth keeping in mind. TSI projects Minnesota -11.5 with a total of 172, and the regression data points heavily to Minnesota and the Over. So, no play on the total due to conflicting numbers, but I like Minnesota here to flex its muscle after playing 3.5 points worse than its season average for the last three games.
Bet: Lynx -10.5 or better
New York Liberty (-8.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 179.5
New York is coming off an OT win against Dallas – who didn’t have Paige Bueckers – but had been playing 6.5 points below their season average prior to that. Chicago has been four points better than its season average lately, winning two of its last three games. TSI projects New York -13 with a total of 171, and the regression-adjusted numbers would be New York -17.5 with a total of 177.5. So I’m going to lay another big number here with all signs pointing to New York to get the cover at home.
Bet: Liberty -8.5 (play to -10)
Washington Mystics (+6.5) vs. Las Vegas Aces, O/U 164.5
Washington is just so inconsistent and has been a couple points below its season average over the last three games, while Vegas has been about two points above its season average after blowing out Toronto last game. TSI projects Aces -6.5 with a total of 163.5, and the regression data would make it about Aces -2 with a total of 161, but I do not trust Washington at all, especially the last game before a break, so who knows where their minds are. Both teams have been better in their respective home/road splits, so there is no edge there. I’m going to pass on the game.
Indiana Fever (-10.5) vs. Connecticut Sun, O/U 179.5
Indiana has won three of four and finds itself atop the Eastern Conference at the moment (tied with Atlanta), and has been playing four points better than its season average. Connecticut is coming off a loss to Phoenix on the road, but has been an amazing 6.5 points better than their season average over the last three. TSI projects Indiana -15 with a total of 175.5, and the regression-adjusted numbers would be Indiana -16.5 with a total of 180.5. The total has moved too much to take at this point, but Indiana is worth a look here despite the market looking like it may come down a little on them.
Bet: Fever -10.5 or better
Portland Fire (-5.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 174.5
Paige Bueckers is questionable for this game, so all betting decisions are really on hold until that status is finalized. Portland comes into this game having played fourteen points better than its season average over the last two games, while Dallas has been 2.5 points below its season average, not including the Liberty OT loss without Bueckers. TSI projects Dallas -4 with a total of 174, so not a ton of value to be had. The regression numbers would make it Dallas -8.5 with a total of 172, but until we know Bueckers’s status, I don’t really have any interest in betting this game.
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