WNBA Season Preview
Given that I don’t do anything with MLB (yet?), the month of April is so boring for me from a betting perspective once March Madness ends until the WNBA season starts. Thankfully, the players’ association and the team owners reached an agreement on a new CBA and prevented a WNBA lockout, so the season will start this Friday night and I am back with team previews for all 15 teams. I’ll discuss key roster moves, win total Over/Unders, and of course my TSI ratings and win total projections (spoiler: they’re pretty aligned with the market).
Atlanta Dream
The Dream set their franchise record with 30 victories in 2025 and retained their core of Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, and Jordin Canada, as well as Naz Hillmon and Brionna Jones. They shook up the offseason by acquiring Angel Reese in a trade from Chicago for future draft picks, and drafting South Carolina big Madina Okot at No. 13. However, center Brionna Jones underwent knee surgery, which will delay the start of her 2026 season with no concrete timetable for her return. The Dream’s win total is set at 29.5, which is tied for the second highest in the league.
TSI Win Total Projection: 29.6
TSI Power Rating: 7.0 (tied for second)
Chicago Sky
The Sky completely revamped their roster in the offseason, but I’m currently a little confused by the strategy. They traded away franchise player Angel Reese to Atlanta for draft picks, indicating they were going to enter a complete rebuild by compiling assets and playing young, cheaper players for the time being. However, they just signed veteran defensive ace, Natasha Cloud, and waived the young guard Hailey Van Lith, which signals they’re maybe trying to win sooner? Perhaps we haven’t seen the last of their moves, but for now, they’re an interesting team to keep an eye on as the season starts. Their win total Over/Under is 18.5, so the market isn’t expecting much from this current iteration of the Sky.
TSI Win Total Projection: 18.9
TSI Power Rating: -0.5 (10th)
Connecticut Sun
The Sun open 2026 in an odd spot; this will be the team’s final season in Connecticut before relocating to Houston for 2027, yet they’ve loaded up to try to go out on a high note. Connecticut added Brittney Griner and Kennedy Burke in free agency and re-signed Olivia Nelson-Ododa, while somehow acquiring the blossoming star Aaliyah Edwards from Washington late last year. In the draft, they held three of the top 18 picks, selecting Nell Angloma of France at 12th, followed by UCLA guards Gianna Kneepkens and Charlisse Leger-Walker. Burke, the former Liberty sharpshooter and 2026 EuroCup Finals MVP, immediately looked like a major get in preseason, providing a legitimate 3-point shooting threat to go along with the overwhelming size inside for the Sun. Their farewell tour will be interesting after having a terrible year in 2025 but seemingly not embracing the full rebuild, although their win total Over/Under is just 11.5.
TSI Win Total Projection: 11.4 (I think I’d play the Under here if I was making a preseason play)
TSI Power Rating: -6 (tied for last)
Dallas Wings
Dallas debuts a new core as No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd joins reigning Rookie of the Year, Paige Bueckers, and four-time All-Star Arike Ogunbowale to bolster the Wings’ backcourt. Ogunbowale returned on a multi-year extension hoping to bounce back from an uncharacteristically down year. They also added Jessica Shepard from Minnesota, plus veteran Alysha Clark and backcourt depth via Odyssey Sims. The Wings’ top seven is locked in, but they invited a whopping 22 players to camp to sort out the back end of the roster. Dallas is loaded with star power and is one of the most exciting teams in the league to watch this season. Their season win total is 21.5, which is probably a question mark about their defense, which has traditionally been pretty bad despite a really fun offense, a la Mike D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns teams of the mid-2000s.
TSI Win Total Projection: 21.8 (I’d lean Over here)
TSI Power Rating: 1.5 (9th)
Golden State Valkyries
The Valkyries signed Gabby Williams in free agency and are mostly bringing back the same team that made history in their inaugural season, with seven of their top nine from last year returning. Reigning Most Improved Player Veronica Burton is back and ready to build on her breakout campaign. No. 5 overall pick Justė Jocytė will be coming over from Europe this season, though she will be a late arrival to camp. They also signed center Kiyah Stokes who has championship pedigree from her time in Las Vegas, which should dramatically help the frontcourt. The Valkyries made a stunning move to waive Marta Suarez, the No. 16 overall pick, whom they acquired as part of the deal that sent Flau’jae Johnson to Seattle, which makes one wonder what exactly their plans are now after basically forfeiting an asset for nothing. We will see if year one’s playoff run was a fluke or if this team is here to stay in Year 2. Their win total is set at 22.5, barely putting them over .500 if that holds, which is interesting given their success last year and the fact they return so much, including the Coach of the Year.
TSI Win Total Projection: 22.6
TSI Power Rating: 2.0 (8th)
Indiana Fever
The Fever are entering 2026 after dealing with a ridiculous amount of injuries to their starting lineup last season (Caitlin Clark was limited to just 13 games) but the fact that Clark appeared in all three preseason tune-ups is a welcomed sight for Indiana fans. The Fever re-signed Kelsey Mitchell as their top free agency priority, also bringing back Lexie Hull and Sophie Cunningham, while Aliyah Boston agreed to a four-year, $6.3 million extension through 2029. Rookie Raven Johnson from South Carolina made a strong early impression defensively in preseason, providing the kind of guard-level defensive impact Indiana was missing a season ago. Health-permitting, this team should be right in the mix to win the 2026 title. Their season win total is 29.5, so the market expects a big season from the Fever as well.
TSI Win Total Projection: 29.4 (I think I’d lean Under here)
TSI Power Rating: 7.0 (tied for second)
Las Vegas Aces
The defending champions are primed to run it back, headlined by the re-signings of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd. Las Vegas also added NaLyssa Smith, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Brianna Turner, Dana Evans, and Stephanie Talbot in free agency. To me, the most under-the-radar move of the offseason was the addition of Chennedy Carter, who spent last season overseas but is an absolute pitbull defensively (most recognizable from her bump of Caitlin Clark two years ago). The Aces experienced some complacency early last season before hitting fifth gear entering the playoffs and ultimately winning another championship. They’ll again face championship fatigue early this season and I’ll be interested to see how excited they are to chase a season win total of 29.5, or if they coast through the regular season again.
TSI Win Total Projection: 29.6
TSI Power Rating: 7.0 (tied for second)
Los Angeles Sparks
The Sparks re-signed Dearica Hamby, Erica Wheeler, and Kelsey Plum on a team-friendly deal, while acquiring Ariel Atkins from Chicago via a sign-and-trade. Cameron Brink is back healthy after a difficult 2025 season, which is already a huge plus for their rim protection. Atkins immediately impressed in her debut with three steals and six defensive rebounds, bringing the kind of defensive pressure Los Angeles had been missing. Without a first-round pick in this draft, the Sparks added scoring guards Ta’Niya Latson and Chance Gray in the second round. A healthy Brink is the x-factor for this team, and I’m excited to see her and Plum have a full season together, hopefully. Their season win total is 25.5, indicating healthy market respect on this team after last year’s 21-23 season.
TSI Win Total Projection: 25.4
TSI Power Rating: 4.0 (6th)
Minnesota Lynx
Among last year’s title contenders, no team saw more roster turnover this offseason than the Lynx. Three key players return in Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, but Collier’s debut will be delayed as she continues to recover from offseason surgery on both ankles. The Lynx were the biggest losers on expansion draft night, losing Bridget Carleton with the first overall pick to Portland. They also lost Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard to Dallas in free agency. On the bright side, second overall pick Olivia Miles brings explosive speed and upside to replace some of that lost production, and the Lynx remain one of the more experienced coaching staffs in the league. Their season win total is set at 27.5, but a lot of that will hinge on how quickly Collier is able to suit up.
TSI Win Total Projection: 27.5 (lean Under given the Collier situation)
TSI Power Rating: 5.5 (5th)
New York Liberty
As is America, the rich get richer. The Liberty re-signed their superstar trio of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones, and somehow got better by signing All-Star forward Satou Sabally. New York suffered a disappointing first-round exit in 2025 and will be highly motivated to go deeper with the league’s most star-studded roster. Sometimes stacking talent on talent doesn’t necessarily work, especially immediately, so I’ll be curious to see how quickly Sabally can integrate while simultaneously playing for a new coach after the unceremonious firing of Sandy Brondello and the hiring of Chris DeMarco. The Liberty have the highest win total in the league at 32.5, which is a hefty number to hit when you consider the injury luck needed as well as the aforementioned new coach and star player.
TSI Win Total Projection: 32.3 (lean Under)
TSI Power Rating: 9.0 (1st)
Phoenix Mercury
In 2025, the Mercury brought in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, finished tied for fourth at 27-17, then beat New York and Minnesota in the playoffs before being swept by Las Vegas in the WNBA Finals. While the Mercury lost Satou Sabally to the Liberty in free agency, they re-signed Thomas, Kahleah Copper, Sami Whitcomb, and DeWanna Bonner. Thomas remains the backbone of the team, averaging 15.4 points, a career-high 9.2 assists, and 8.8 rebounds last season, and has become one of the league’s premier playmakers. Losing Sabally is no small blow, although in fairness she missed several games with injuries last year so perhaps they can better absorb the loss than they otherwise could’ve had she played more. I’ll be honest though, outside of the aforementioned players, there’s not a lot of recognizable names on this roster, and Bonner and Thomas are no spring chickens, so I’ll be very interested to see how this team holds up over the course of the year. I could definitely see a bad start leading to some trades to get younger and embrace a potential rebuild if their star trio isn’t able to get them into contention. Their win total is 23.5, so there’s some market respect but I think there’s more potential for this to go sideways than for them to overachieve.
TSI Win Total Projection: 23.2 (lean Under)
TSI Power Rating: 2.5 (7th)
Portland Fire
Portland took the best player available in Bridget Carleton with the No. 1 expansion pick. Carleton is a versatile wing and one of the best three-point shooters in the league. This was a huge get for Portland, while simultaneously delivering a huge blow to the Minnesota Lynx. The Fire also poached a versatile pair from the Wings in Luisa Geiselsöder and Haley Jones. Portland’s roster appears more unfinished than Toronto’s, expected to lean on Carleton and free agent signing Megan Gustafson to lead a young roster. No. 7 overall pick Iyana Martín, a Spanish guard, will remain in Europe this summer and will not play, and Nika Mühl will also miss the season as she recovers from a torn ACL. Portland is building for the future with high-ceiling young talent, but this figures to be a tough inaugural season. The market agrees, placing their win total at just 11.5.
TSI Win Total Projection: 11.3
TSI Power Rating: -6 (tied for last)
Seattle Storm
The Storm lost their top five scorers from last season: Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams, and others. This leaves just Ezi Magbegor and Dominique Malonga back from the core. In rebuilding mode under a new coach, Seattle added veterans Stefanie Dolson, Natisha Hiedeman, and Katie Lou Samuelson in free agency, while using the No. 3 overall pick on 19-year-old center Awa Fam Thiam from Spain and acquiring Flau’jae Johnson (No. 8 pick) from Golden State. Magbegor is likely out at least six weeks with a foot injury. Johnson thrilled in her preseason debut with 20 points in 19 minutes, offering a glimpse of her potential, but this is still likely to be a very rough season in Seattle with a win total set at just 14.5.
TSI Win Total Projection: 14.8
TSI Power Rating: -3.5 (13th)
Toronto Tempo
Toronto has taken an aggressive approach, signing Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes to big contracts while picking up Nyara Sabally, Julie Allemand, and 2026 NCAA champion Kiki Rice via the expansion and college drafts. Allemand will take center stage as the Tempo’s top point guard after helping the Sparks make a late push for the playoffs last season. The Mystics matched the three-year max offer sheet that Shakira Austin had signed with Toronto, preventing what would have been a significant coup for the Tempo’s frontcourt. Two-time WNBA champion coach Sandy Brondello brings immediate credibility to this optimistic expansion franchise. The Tempo’s season win total sits at 15.5, four games higher than its expansion counterpart, Portland.
TSI Win Total Projection: 15.8 (lean Over due to Brondello’s coaching pedigree)
TSI Power Rating: -2.5 (tied for 11th)
Washington Mystics
The Mystics are going full-on with a youth movement. The only veterans are Shakira Austin, who is in her fifth season after the team matched a three-year max offer sheet she signed with Toronto, and free agent signee Michaela Onyenwere in her sixth season. Washington had six picks in the 2026 WNBA Draft, with first-rounders Lauren Betts (No. 4), Angela Dugalić (No. 9), and Cotie McMahon (No. 11) all expected to make the team. Add in 2025’s No. 6 pick Georgia Amoore, ready to debut after missing last season with a knee injury, and last year’s All-Star rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen in year two. Washington has some tremendous young pieces in place, which makes me wonder why they got rid of Aaliyah Edwards, who also fits that profile, unless there was some off-the-court issues we’re unaware of in that relationship. I think this will be a young, hungry team who may shock a team or two throughout the season. Their win total sits at 16.5, indicating they’ll likely take some lumps along the way.
TSI Win Total Projection: 16.3
TSI Power Rating: -2.5 (tied for 11th)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
