WNBA Picks
We had a much-needed sweep in the WNBA Saturday, as the Lynx covered the -2.5 against the Sky, and the Sparks won outright as 9.5-point ‘dogs against the Aces. The Sparks game, especially, was a big win for TSI because it only projected Vegas -1.5, which was an 8-point discrepancy. When I have discrepancies that big, it’s always encouraging for the game to really validate the model with how it plays out. Sunday, we’ve got another tripleheader, so let’s get to the projections.
Atlanta Dream (-5.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 168
Atlanta is 3-1 and on its third straight home game of a four-game home stand, while Phoenix is 2-4 and kicking off a three-game road trip. The Dream are now 8th in TSI offensive and 1st in defense, while Phoenix is 6th and 9th, respectively. TSI projects Atlanta -8.5 with a total of 169.5. Home teams are just 8-17 ATS in the last 10 days, so I’m a little reluctant to fire on any home team at this point, but Atlanta is definitely the lean.
Lean: Dream -5.5
New York Liberty (-7.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 179
New York is expecting Sabrina Ionescu to make her regular-season debut today, which is huge news for them. Dallas is on its third road game in five days, which is a scheduling spot I had circled when I did my schedule analysis. New York is 3rd in TSI offense and 12th on defense, taking on a Dallas team who’s #1 on offense and #6 on defense. TSI projects Liberty -7 with a total of 174.5. Totals have been kind of a mixed bag anyway, but the fact the Liberty get their best shooter back today means I need to wait and see before firing on any Unders. I’d love to fade the Wings here, but the number doesn’t fully allow it and, again, home teams have been atrocious ATS. Lean Liberty for the spot, but otherwise nothing for me.
Lean: Liberty -7.5
Seattle Storm (-3.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 159.5
Seattle has started the season just 2-4, with both wins coming over the worst team in the league, Connecticut. They’re on their 3rd of four consecutive home games, including a back-to-back series with Washington. The Mystics have barely played, I feel like, and have started 2-2 while playing their first game in a week. Seattle is 15th on offense and 7th on defense, while Washington is 14th on offense and 3rd on defense. TSI projects Mystics -1 with a total of 163.5. I’d love to take the Over here on such a low total, but totals of 168 or less have gone 4-1 to the Under so far this year. I think it’s best to just sit this one out.
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