The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: PHI is 32-2 (+28.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs HOU)

Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 55-13 SU (+21.17 units, ROI: 31.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-291 vs CIN)

Since the start of this season, on Over projections when the SM ratings simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 26-15-2 for +8.53 units and an ROI of 20.8%.
Ratings Match: AZ-KC OVER 8.5 (projections have total at 10.0)

Since the start of last season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) but a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 272-357 for -85.57 units (ROI: -13.6%) when not matched up against the same.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+104 at MIA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 204-163 for +1.05 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-117 vs MIN), SEATTLE (-149 vs TEX), ATLANTA (-125 vs TB)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 88-131 for -47.21 units and an ROI of -21.6%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+104 at MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 142-216 start for -30.06 units (-8.4% ROI) after losing about 40 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+149 vs TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs STL), WASHINGTON (+141 at SD), COLORADO (+208 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+100 vs AZ), CINCINNATI (+232 at LAD)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 99-54 for -21.05 units, ROI -13.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-218 vs LAA), NY YANKEES (-258 vs COL), LA DODGERS (-291 vs CIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 295-357 for -25.39 units, and comes off a rough three-week stretch, giving back over 13.5 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-101 vs STL), NY METS (+104 at MIA), HOUSTON (+129 at PHI)

Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 245-171 for +42.37 units, an ROI of +10.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-117 vs MIN), CLEVELAND (-118 at BAL), ATLANTA (-125 vs TB), ARIZONA (-120 at KC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 175-203 start for -40.86 units (ROI -10.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+123 at SEA), PITTSBURGH (+113 at CWS)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 153-175 for +0.96 units. However, it has lost -12.3 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+141 at SD), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at MIL)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 486-506 but for +36.75 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+141 at SD), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at MIL)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 819-1065 but for +30.08 units and an ROI of 1.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+102 at DET), WASHINGTON (+141 at SD), NY METS (+104 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+178 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at MIL)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-480 but for +88.62 units and an ROI of 9.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+141 at SD), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at MIL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2229-2110 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.77 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-118 at BAL), TEXAS (+123 at SEA), PITTSBURGH (+113 at CWS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,301-2,882 (44.4%) for -268.12 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-119 at SF), CINCINNATI (+232 at LAD)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 685-574 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.27 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-171 vs WSH), ATLANTA (-125 vs TB)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 364-321 (53.1%) for +25.66 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-136 vs PIT)

Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 43-146 SU for -44.45 units (ROI: -23.5%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+232 at LAD)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 98-60-7 (62%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CIN-LAD (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #2:
When two teams with >=0.55% win pct meet in a night game to close out a series, Under the total is 74-50-6 (59.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 55-25 SU for +20.79 units (ROI: 26%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-125 vs TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 339-349 run (+14.21 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+141 at SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 114-45 (+34.79 units, ROI: 21.9%) in their last 159 tries.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ARIZONA (-120 at KC)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 277-180 in their last 457 tries (+44.55 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-291 vs CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-260 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 25-10-2 (71.4%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-LAD (o/u at 8.5)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks playing as non-divisional large home favorites (-230 or more) have gone 55-13 SU (+21.17 units, ROI: 31.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-291 vs CIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 614-604 for +20.45 units, good for +1.7% ROI. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +208 (+40 diff), LA ANGELS +178 (+20), CINCINNATI +232 (+14), KANSAS CITY +100 (+10)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -131 (+33 diff), DETROIT -117 (+30), SAN DIEGO -171 (+26), PHILADELPHIA -156 (+24), ST LOUIS -119 (+23), ATLANTA -125 (+22), MIAMI -126 (+10)

Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 26-15-2 for +8.53 units and an ROI of 20.8%. TODAY’s MATCH: AZ-KC OVER 8.5 (+1.5)

If you’re looking for something that has produced with a little less ROI but provides more opportunities, consider the situation where on Under projections so far when the simulation shows at least a 0.6 run edge, Unders are 123-98 for +12.75 units and an ROI of 5.8%. TODAY’s MATCH: CIN-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.9)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(953) WASHINGTON (67-80) at (954) SAN DIEGO (77-68)
Trend: WSH is 46-28 (+9.81 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at SD)

(957) CHICAGO-NL (81-65) at (958) MILWAUKEE (90-56)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 9-15 (-4.52 units) in his last 24 starts as a road night underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at MIL)

(959) CINCINNATI (69-76) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-57)
Trend: LAD is 27-47 (-25.19 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs CIN)

(961) MINNESOTA (69-76) at (962) DETROIT (66-79)
Trend: Over the total is 44-23-6 (+18.70 units) in MIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 8.5)

(965) TEXAS (72-73) at (966) SEATTLE (67-78)
Trend: TEX is 29-44 (-22.83 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at SEA)

(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-90) at (970) BOSTON (80-66)
Trend: LAA is 37-69 (-17.75 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+178 at BOS)

(971) HOUSTON (74-71) at (972) PHILADELPHIA (81-64)
Trend: PHI is 32-2 (+28.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs HOU)

(977) ARIZONA (78-68) at (978) KANSAS CITY (64-82)
Trend: Under the total is 41-29-4 (+9.10 units) in AZ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-KC (o/u at 8.5)

(979) PITTSBURGH (72-73) at (980) CHICAGO-AL (75-69)
Trend: PIT is 34-49 (-25.12 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+113 at CWS)

Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee, Mon 9/7-Sun 9/9
Trend: Over the total is 17-10-2 (65.4%, +5.87 units) in the last 29 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 21%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

Series #38: Houston at Philadelphia, Tue 9/8-Thu 9/10
Trend: Under the total is 12-1 (92.3%, +11.00 units) in the last 13 of the Astros-Phillies head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 84.6%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHI (o/u at 8)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-BOS

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, September 11)

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