Dollar Tree 301 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
I gave last week’s race at Richmond a nice buildup because it was the only track on the circuit that received a handicap-ability grade of A at the outset of the season based upon recent predictability, but for a second straight week, Ryan Blaney faltered in the late portion of the race, failing to maintain the dominance he showed earlier. Instead, it was his teammate Joey Logano who earned the Checkered Flag, coming from the #3 position on our final simulation projections. If you’re curious, yes, that was the second straight race that the winner came from the #3 spot on the projections. Perhaps this is turning into another alternative way to wager, if you haven’t been doing so. In any case, this week, we move on to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Dollar Tree 301, our third straight flat short track race.
As I have indicated in each of the last two weeks, flat short tracks have proven to be the most predictable venues overall for betting races based upon stats and my simulation formulas. New Hampshire, however, has been the lowest rated of the group for predictability, getting a grade of B-. Surprise finishes from guys like Josh Berry, who has a 2nd and 3rd the last two years, contribute to that, as does the fact that races at NMHS can often come down to fuel mile strategy. New Hampshire is a 1.058-mile oval located in Loudon, NH. Its banking is a progressive style but reaches only 7 degrees at its steepest. Closest comparisons would be Phoenix and Gateway, although I will say that the action seems far more racy at both others.
The odds leaderboard for the week finds five distinct favorites for five definitive reasons. DraftKings’ overall favorite is Blaney at +450. He is the defending champ of the race and has been running very well lately, particularly at the start of races. Next is Christopher Bell, who has won two of the four Next Gen Car races at NMHS, including 2024. Bell has also made a habit of finishing second a lot lately. Third is Joey Logano, winner of two of the last four series races overall and one of the better resume holders at this track. Fourth is Denny Hamlin, current series points leader and championship favorite, and finally, last on the top 5 odds board is Chase Briscoe, last week’s runner-up and pilot of the #19 Toyota of Joe Gibbs Racing, a car that was very strong when run by Martin Truex. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the winner come from that group, but I also wouldn’t discount the chances of an underdog should the Dollar Tree 301 turn into a fuel mileage strategy race.
We are just two races away from the cutoff point for the 2026 playoffs, otherwise known again as the Chase. The race for the final playoff spots is not as close as usual, with Shane Van Gisbergen in 16th and holding a 50-point advantage over 17th-place Ryan Preece. Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, and Erik Jones have outside chances too, but all of these guys will need SVG or 15th-place Austin Cindric to falter badly. Cindric had a huge 3rd-place run last week to solidify his chances at a playoff spot. Bettors should remember what I mentioned last week. Be wary of backing these guys, as desperation doesn’t always equal success. In fact, just like teams in other sports that are in “must-win” situations, things can turn out quite the opposite.
As I mentioned earlier, things weren’t horrible last week at Richmond, but they were disappointing compared to the expectations of the A handicap-ability grade. This is how the Cook Out 400 impacted our season numbers to date.
Initial Richmond simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +3.85 units for the season
Final Richmond Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +36.05 units for the season
Final Richmond Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +22.35 units for the season – For the second straight week, our projected 3rd place driver took home the checkered flag (Logano)
Final simulation top 3 Richmond projections: one winner, two losers – Logano (+190) – total return -0.1 units – NOW +2.2 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Richmond projections: three winners, two losers, Hamlin (-160), Logano (-110), Briscoe (+120) – total return +0.35 units – Now -23.35 units for the season
On the top 5 projections, we are still digging out of the hole Shane Van Gisbergen put us in back at Coronado last month, although I have to trust that any of us value bettors were involved in that wager. It also affects my personal predictions below. As DraftKings has apparently stopped posting Top 10 odds, which I assume because they have not done it the last five races, I am discontinuing my updating of those. For the record, we landed six top-10 finishers last week against four losers.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter.
Final simulation top 5 Richmond projections: one winner, four losers, Hamlin (-160), — total return -4.2 units — Now -42.05 units for the season
Top Richmond Longshots to win: one winner, four losers –total return -4 units – Now +4 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Richmond: Larson (6th), Wallace (20th), Chastain (12th), Bowman (10th), Buescher (21st)—Now 69 for 96 for the season, picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
This wasn’t a great showing for my personal picks, as Ryan Blaney opened fast and lost his handling again late for a second straight week. His teammate Logano had the better race setup at the finish. We’ll see if that happens again this week, as I would expect Blaney to be in contention for the pole once again. The saving grace for him here could be that the race will be run in the daytime, just like practice/qualifying. This is our last flat short track until Gateway on 9/13, so hopefully we can take advantage with a big week.
Looking ahead to New Hampshire now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the last four races run here in the Next Gen Car, and these are the leaders during that time frame in specific racing categories. I am making it a habit of narrowing down the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average Starting Position in the Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. Ryan Blaney: 5
2. William Byron: 5.25
3. Joey Logano: 5.75
4. Josh Berry: 6.5
5. Christopher Bell: 7.25
6. Tyler Reddick: 8.75
…
22. Austin Dillon: 22.75
23. Chase Briscoe: 24.25
24. Ryan Preece: 25
25. Austin Cindric: 25.25
26. Todd Gilliland: 25.25
27. Erik Jones: 27.5
Average Practice Position in the Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. William Byron: 7.75
2. Darrell Wallace: 8
3. Michael McDowell: 10.5
4. Josh Berry: 11.5
5. Carson Hocevar: 11.5
6. AJ Allmendinger: 11.67
…
22. Austin Cindric: 24.75
23. Ricky Stenhouse: 25
24. Alex Bowman: 25.5
25. Todd Gilliland: 26
26. Austin Dillon: 26.75
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 28
Average Running Position in the Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. Joey Logano: 7
2. Kyle Larson: 7.25
3. Josh Berry: 7.5
4. Christopher Bell: 7.75
5. Ryan Blaney: 8
6. Denny Hamlin: 9
…
22. Todd Gilliland: 21.75
23. Austin Dillon: 22.75
24. Shane Van Gisbergen: 23
25. Erik Jones: 23.25
26. Daniel Suarez: 23.5
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 24.25
Average Laps Led in the Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. Christopher Bell: 48
2. Joey Logano: 43.5
3. Ryan Blaney: 29
4. Chase Elliott: 14.25
5. Tyler Denny Hamlin: 10.75
…
14. Carson Hocevar: 0
15. Darrell Wallace: 0
16. Ross Chastain: 0
17. Chris Buescher: 0
18. Brad Keselowski: 0
19. Michael McDowell: 0
20. Ty Gibbs: 0
21. AJ Allmendinger: 0
22. Austin Cindric: 0
23. Ryan Preece: 0
24. Alex Bowman: 0
25. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
26. Erik Jones: 0
27. Daniel Suarez: 0
Average Driver Rating Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. Josh Berry: 111.8
2. Christopher Bell: 110.05
3. Joey Logano: 108.35
4. Kyle Larson: 99.55
5. Ryan Blaney: 99.43
6. Chase Elliott: 96.6
…
22. Austin Cindric: 58.48
23. Todd Gilliland: 57.23
24. Austin Dillon: 55.48
25. Daniel Suarez: 55.43
26. Ricky Stenhouse: 52.48
27. Erik Jones: 52.4
Most Average Laps Run in Top 15 in Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. Kyle Larson: 286.75
2. Christopher Bell: 281.5
3. Denny Hamlin: 277.5
4. Joey Logano: 271.75
5. Josh Berry: 268.5
6. Ryan Blaney: 240
…
22. Ryan Preece: 64.67
23. Daniel Suarez: 63.25
24. AJ Allmendinger: 52.67
25. Austin Dillon: 46.75
26. Erik Jones: 32.25
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 22.75
Best Average Finish in the Last Four New Hampshire Races
1. Josh Berry: 2.5
2. Kyle Larson: 7
3. Christopher Bell: 9.25
4. Chase Elliott: 9.25
5. Chase Briscoe: 9.25
6. Denny Hamlin: 12.25
…
22. Todd Gilliland: 19.25
23. Austin Dillon: 19.5
24. Daniel Suarez: 20.5
25. Alex Bowman: 25
26. Ty Gibbs: 26
27. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
Of note on these stat leaders, Josh Berry has enjoyed two fantastic runs at New Hampshire in a row, finishing 2nd last year and 3rd in 2024. Otherwise, it’s the usual cast of characters that we have been seeing in recent weeks on other flat short tracks that dominate the leaderboards. On the other end, some notables like Ty Gibbs, Carson, Hocever, Ross Chastain, and Chris Buescher have all yet to lead a lap in the next gen car at NHMS.
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers on the simulation factors at New Hampshire are Bell, Berry, Logano, Elliott, Larson. In terms of flat short tracks, the order is Logano, Briscoe, Blaney, Hamlin, Bell. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Hamlin, Bell, Blaney, Larson, Briscoe. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice & qualifying, which is set for 10:30 a.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Briscoe, Logano, Blaney, Bell, Hamlin
Top underdogs to consider (+1200 or higher): Reddick, Berry, Byron, Wallace
Favorites to struggle: Gibbs, Chastain, Hocevar, SVG
The 301-mile event at New Hampshire is set for 3:00 PM ET on Sunday the 23rd. Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full initial simulation. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
