Window World 450 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Betting preview for NASCAR’s Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro
We made it 2-for-2 at Atlanta this season as Ryan Blaney brought home the checkered flag on Sunday after Tyler Reddick did so in February. The reward for Blaney (+750) wasn’t quite as big as what we got from Reddick, but hitting two winners in a season at a track like Atlanta, where the racing is fast and furious, is quite the accomplishment.
This week we move on to a track we haven’t visited for point racing in the Cup Series in 30 years, North Wilkesboro Speedway. But it is a flat short track, and most of the venues on the circuit with the highest handicap-ability grades are of that variety. And while the only recent action we have to go by is last year’s All-Star race, I still wouldn’t be scared to get involved on Sunday just because of unfamiliarity. That said, it would probably be best to wait until Saturday evening’s practice and qualifying sessions are done to get a better feel for who might have best mastered the track come Sunday for the Window World 450.
North Wilkesboro Speedway last hosted a Cup Series point race in 1996. It is a 0.625-mile oval in North Carolina with 13-degree banking in the turns and three degrees in the straightaways. It’s most similar to Richmond and Iowa on the season schedule. Those tracks have minimum handicap-ability grades of B+, thus that is the grade I am assigning for this venue. The fact that NASCAR hasn’t had a points race here in 30 years makes things interesting but certainly not impossible. In last year’s All-Star race at NWS, Christopher Bell took home the checkered flag and the $1 million prize. Other drivers who had good days last May were Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, William Byron and Chase Elliott, who rounded out the top 5. Only three of the 23 drivers in that race didn’t finish on the lead lap because of trouble: Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Daniel Suarez. Don’t read too much into that, however. You will see a little later in my top stat category lists for flat short tracks that certain guys are probably really looking forward to Sunday.
The odds board for this week at DraftKings shows Denny Hamlin (+425) as the favorite, followed by Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell, each listed at +500. The interesting thing about those four drivers is that they are the only ones with favorite odds to score top-5s. There is a somewhat sizable drop to the next driver in line, Joey Logano, who is +1000 to win and +135 to secure a top-5. It seems that oddsmakers are looking closely at what happened in the All-Star race last year, as Bell and Logano are not typical names we see atop the odds board at short tracks.
The best part about what happened at Atlanta last weekend was obviously Blaney getting the victory as the simulation favorite. That said, after two wins at Atlanta this season, I was asked why the track still gets a handicap-ability grade of D? Well, it’s certainly been proven to be better to be running out front. Because of potential accidents on the tight track, and perhaps not racing in clean air as much, the guys running outside the top 5 or top 10 don’t fare quite as predictably. We will certainly take the outright win, though, and our Final Simulation projected winners are now up over +40 units for the season. Hopefully you’ve been along for the full ride, dating to April of 2025 when the projections got really hot. The return since then on projected winners is up over +70 units! In any case, here are the other results from the Quaker State 400 and how they impacted our season numbers to date.
Initial Atlanta simulation winner: Winner Blaney (+7.5 units) – NOW +7.85 units for the season
Final Atlanta Simulation winner: Winner Blaney (+7.5 units) – NOW +40.05 units for the season!
Final Atlanta Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: One winner, one loser – total return +6.5 units – NOW +30.35 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Atlanta projections: one winner, two losers, Blaney +220 – total return +0.2 units – NOW +2.7 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Atlanta projections: one winner, four losers, Blaney +100 – total return -3 units – Now -14.75 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Atlanta projections: five winners (Blaney, Logano, Reddick, Buescher, Hocevar), five losers, – total return -1.25 units – Now -39.75 units for the season
To be honest, it is tough betting guys to do top-10s at Atlanta, as the prices typically don’t match the unpredictable handicap-ability. For instance, Austin Cindric was -190 to score a top-10, but one bad move late cost him any shot. Flat short tracks certainly offer some more reliability, so I would suggest that top-5 and top-10 bets here at North Wilkesboro are a safer wager.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter …
Final simulation top 5 Atlanta projections: one winner, four losers, Blaney +100 – total return -3 units – Now -33.1 units for the season
Top Atlanta long shots to win: four losers (-4) three losers –total return -4 units – Now -2 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Atlanta: Gibbs (4th), Briscoe (36th), Hamlin (12th), Bell (2nd) – Now 57-for-78 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Not a great showing for my top underdogs or favorites to fade sections, but that is exactly what can happen at a D-graded track like Atlanta.
Looking ahead to North Wilkesboro on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the last four races run at flat short tracks dating to November of last season, and here are the leaders in specific racing categories. Again, I have limited the number of drivers I am looking at in these stat leaders to those most offered on the typical betting platforms:
Average STARTING POSITION last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. William Byron: 3.5
2. Denny Hamlin: 4.5
3. Kyle Larson: 5.25
4. Austin Cindric: 5.75
5. Joey Logano: 6
6. Carson Hocevar: 8.75
…
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 24.75
27. Austin Dillon: 25.25
28. Ricky Stenhouse: 25.5
29. Todd Gilliland: 26.25
30. Noah Gragson: 29.75
31. AJ Allmendinger: 30.5
Average PRACTICE POSITION last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. Ty Gibbs: 3
2. Denny Hamlin: 6.25
3. Chase Elliott: 6.25
4. Ryan Blaney: 8.25
5. Connor Zilisch: 9
6. Darrell Wallace: 9.75
…
26. Austin Dillon: 23.5
27. Chris Buescher: 23.75
28. Zane Smith: 24.5
29. Noah Gragson: 29.75
30. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33.25
31. Brad Keselowski: 33.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. William Byron: 5.25
2. Ryan Blaney: 6
3. Denny Hamlin: 6.25
4. Joey Logano: 6.5
5. Christopher Bell: 7.25
6. Kyle Larson: 8.5
…
26. Austin Dillon: 23
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 26.25
28. Connor Zilisch: 28
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 28
30. AJ Allmendinger: 28.75
31. Noah Gragson: 28.75
Average LAPS LED last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. Denny Hamlin: 126.25
2. William Byron: 90.75
3. Ryan Blaney: 56.75
4. Christopher Bell: 44
5. Chase Elliott: 28.5
6. Joey Logano: 18.25
…
15. Kyle Larson: 0
16. Austin Cindric: 0
17. Alex Bowman: 0
18. Carson Hocevar: 0
19. Todd Gilliland: 0
20. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
21. Chris Buescher: 0
22. Darrell Wallace: 0
23. Erik Jones: 0
24. Zane Smith: 0
25. Daniel Suarez: 0
26. Austin Dillon: 0
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
28. Connor Zilisch: 0
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
30. AJ Allmendinger: 0
31. Noah Gragson: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. Denny Hamlin: 121.275
2. Ryan Blaney: 119.175
3. William Byron: 113.175
4. Joey Logano: 108.4
5. Christopher Bell: 107.5
6. Kyle Larson: 102.225
…
26. Daniel Suarez: 56.125
27. Ricky Stenhouse: 45.625
28. AJ Allmendinger: 44.225
29. John Hunter Nemechek: 44
30. Connor Zilisch: 43
31. Noah Gragson: 41.05
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. Christopher Bell: 380.5
2. William Byron: 368.75
3. Joey Logano: 366.25
4. Ryan Blaney: 350.75
5. Denny Hamlin: 340.5
6. Kyle Larson: 338.5
…
26. Noah Gragson: 37
27. Zane Smith: 35.75
28. AJ Allmendinger: 19.5
29. Ricky Stenhouse: 13.5
30. John Hunter Nemechek: 10.5
31. Connor Zilisch: 1.5
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four FLAT SHORT TRACK Races
1. Ryan Blaney: 2.5
2. Kyle Larson: 5
3. Christopher Bell: 6.75
4. Chase Elliott: 9.25
5. Ryan Preece: 10
6. Ty Gibbs: 10.25
…
26. Chase Briscoe: 26.5
27. John Hunter Nemechek: 26.5
28. Connor Zilisch: 27.5
29. AJ Allmendinger: 28
30. Zane Smith: 28.75
31. Noah Gragson: 30.25
If you’re wondering which simulation factors have proven most impactful recently at flat short tracks, in order they have been 1) how drivers do at similar tracks, 2) how they are doing recently and 3) starting position. Typically, practice speeds haven’t proven anywhere near as important. Keep that in mind if you follow the on-track action in P&Q on Saturday.
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at flat short tracks, in order, are Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, William Byron. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday evening after P&Q, which is set for 5:00 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Hamlin, Blaney, Bell, Larson, Byron
Top underdogs to consider (+1400 or higher): Elliott, Reddick, Gibbs, Wallace
Favorites to struggle: Briscoe, Hocevar, Buescher, Bowman
The 450-mile event at North Wilkesboro is set for 7 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.
